# P3-GOV-2 — CLAIM → EVIDENCE MATRIX

```text
Document type : GOVERNANCE / AUDIT (P3-GOV-2 repository truth audit)
Created       : 2026-08-28
Verification  : Every row is checked against the authoritative Git repository,
                committed artifacts, and machine-readable evidence.
Status legend : VERIFIED / SUPPORTED / PARTIALLY SUPPORTED / CONTRADICTED / UNVERIFIED
```

A claim is VERIFIED **only** when repository/artifact/Git evidence supports it.
A matching report alone is never sufficient.

## Verification status total

- Core commit/artifact chain: **VERIFIED** (all claimed SHAs resolve, exist,
  and are reachable from `origin/main`; all reports + handovers present).
- Machine-evidence phases: **VERIFIED / SUPPORTED** (canonical values reproduced
  from committed JSON).
- Documentation narrative (README / DECISION_GATE): **CONTRADICTED** (stale).

## Matrix

| Claim | Claimed Source | Actual Evidence (Git/artifacts) | Git Proof | Remote Proof | Status |
| ----- | -------------- | -------------------------------- | --------- | ------------ | ------ |
| Phase chain S18 → S25 → S25.1C → S25.1D → GOV-1 completed | docs/PROJECT_PHASE_INDEX.md, handovers | Each claimed Close SHA resolves to a commit containing the phase report/handover | `git rev-parse` OK for all; parents link | all reachable from origin/main | **VERIFIED** |
| P3-S20 frozen pooled OOS 0.5792 (old population) | WE.WS20 report | `ml/p3/baseline/output/p3_s20_summary.json` → `pooled_oos_logistic.roc_auc = 0.579160...`; final `A_STABLE_WEAK_SIGNAL` | committed (7c9602ca4964) | reachable | **VERIFIED** |
| P3-S22.3 corrected UTC M30 construction | P3_S22_3_RESEARCH_M30_REPAIR.md | namespace `ml/p3/p3_s223_m30_repair/` committed (oracle + regression/mutation JSON) | 0ee811e... | reachable | **SUPPORTED** |
| P3-S22.4 corrected population (707=610+97) validated, classification B | P3_S22_4 report | `final_classification.json → B_VALIDATED_WITH_MINOR_DOCUMENTED_LIMITATIONS; ml_ready true` | e6339e... | reachable | **VERIFIED** |
| P3-S23 corrected pooled ROC-AUC 0.5235 (0.46 fold3) | .S23 report | `p3_s23_summary.json → pooled_oos_logistic.roc_auc = 0.523527...`; `mutation_all_detected=true`; `B_WEAK_INCONSISTENT_SIGNAL` | a6a804b7ced1 | reachable | **VERIFIED** |
| P3-S24 classification D (edge NOT demonstrated) | `P3_S24_RESEARCH_VALUE_ASSESSMENT` | `p3_s24_classification.json → D_CURRENT_EDGE_NOT_DEMONSTRATED` with `corrected_pooled_oos_roc 0.5235 ; CI includes null; fold3 collapse; calib worse` | 8f1c80abe72a | reachable | **VERIFIED** |
| P3-S25 external tick inventory (34.5 GB / 722,941,870 rows) ; E-UNRESOLVED | `P3_S25_...` | `s25_execution_status.json → tick_csv rows 722,941,870, file_bytes 34,473,661,010; execution_stage = preflight+inventory+method ... ingest not completable` | 84465a2e2462 | reachable | **VERIFIED** |
| P3-S25.1 real checkpoint (run P3_S251_REAL_TICK_RUN_001) | CURRENT_PROJECT_STATE / DI decision | `s251_real_checkpoint.json`: run_id match, source_sha 5252..., chunk10/next11, next_offset 163,578,081, rows 3,661,058, M15 18,579, M30 9,966 | committed | reachable | **VERIFIED** |
| P3-S25.1C SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE=24 MiB; invariance PASS; 10/10 mutations; boundary PASS | `P3_S25_1C_...` | `chunk_size_invariance.json → chunk_size_invariant=true` (12/24/48/64 byte-identical); `chunk_mutation_results.json → target/detected 10/10`; `chunk_boundary_audit.json → boundary_audit_ok=true` | 0b38e96bf8d3 | reachable | **VERIFIED** |
| P3-S25.1D-R verifier defect isolated; 8/8; checkpoint unchanged; CHUNK11 not processed; decision gate A | S25.1D-R handover | `recovery/interruption_recovery_manifest.json → status.mutation_detection 8/8; real_checkpoint_unchanged true; chunk11_processed false; decision_gate A`; `interruption_failure_isolation.json → RESUME_BOUNDARY_MISMATCH, earliest div chunk1` | 7e7b672... | reachable | **VERIFIED** |
| P3-GOV-1 governance establishment, classification B | GOV-1 handover / self-audit | self-audit JSON classification B; GOV-1 handover present; final ref 983adbd (tiptip 49b174e) | all reachable | reachable | **VERIFIED** |

## Detected documentation-only contradictions (NOT claim conflict; Section 18)

1. `README.md` CURRENT section is pinned to **P3-S25.1C COMPLETE / conclusion D**, while
   `CURRENT_PROJECT_STATE.md` has advanced to **P3-S25.1 Stage‑B CHUNK 10 COMPLETE** → **stale**.
2. `CURRENT_DECISION_GATE.md` still authorizes **"CHUNK 9 ONLY / offset 113,246,416"**, but the real
   checkpoint is **chunk 10 committed / next 11 / offset 163,578,081** → **stale**.

These are documentation staleness, not conflicting research claims. They do NOT contradict the
research/commit evidence; classify as documentation-only findings.

## Notes on trust and blinding

None of the above "VERIFIED" marks rely on an AI-generated phase summary. Every row was
confirmed by reading the committed machine-readable JSON and Git objects in the authoritative
repository, using the independent `run_repository_truth_audit.py` harness.

*End of P3-GOV-2 claim–evidence matrix.*