{
  "generated_utc": "2026-08-24T00:00:11.561916+00:00",
  "models": [
    "logistic",
    "tree_depth3",
    "boost_small",
    "mlp16"
  ],
  "metric_sets": {
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        "win_precision": 1.0,
        "win_recall": 0.019417475728155338,
        "n": 343,
        "n_win": 103,
        "n_loss": 240
      },
      "val": {
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        "brier": 0.19327589499702091,
        "balanced_acc": 0.7345132743362832,
        "win_precision": 0.0,
        "win_recall": 0.0,
        "n": 113,
        "n_win": 30,
        "n_loss": 83
      },
      "test": {
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        "balanced_acc": 0.6695652173913044,
        "win_precision": 0.3,
        "win_recall": 0.08823529411764706,
        "n": 115,
        "n_win": 34,
        "n_loss": 81
      }
    },
    "tree_depth3": {
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        "pr_auc": 0.3994440749167371,
        "log_loss": 0.5638276220938713,
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        "balanced_acc": 0.7055393586005831,
        "win_precision": 0.5238095238095238,
        "win_recall": 0.21359223300970873,
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        "n_win": 103,
        "n_loss": 240
      },
      "val": {
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        "n_loss": 83
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        "balanced_acc": 0.6521739130434783,
        "win_precision": 0.25,
        "win_recall": 0.08823529411764706,
        "n": 115,
        "n_win": 34,
        "n_loss": 81
      }
    },
    "boost_small": {
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        "pr_auc": 0.5888260027073133,
        "log_loss": 0.5771092623317469,
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        "balanced_acc": 0.7026239067055393,
        "win_precision": 1.0,
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        "n_win": 103,
        "n_loss": 240
      },
      "val": {
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        "pr_auc": 0.2715167501779491,
        "log_loss": 0.5912559627318619,
        "brier": 0.2000175416078136,
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        "win_precision": 1.0,
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        "n_win": 30,
        "n_loss": 83
      },
      "test": {
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        "pr_auc": 0.37519583495879855,
        "log_loss": 0.6162951146263919,
        "brier": 0.21323473763896028,
        "balanced_acc": 0.6782608695652174,
        "win_precision": 0.3333333333333333,
        "win_recall": 0.08823529411764706,
        "n": 115,
        "n_win": 34,
        "n_loss": 81
      }
    },
    "mlp16": {
      "train": {
        "roc_auc": 0.8352750809061489,
        "pr_auc": 0.6796298365421298,
        "log_loss": 0.4588743953108605,
        "brier": 0.15056723883592377,
        "balanced_acc": 0.7755102040816326,
        "win_precision": 0.7321428571428571,
        "win_recall": 0.39805825242718446,
        "n": 343,
        "n_win": 103,
        "n_loss": 240
      },
      "val": {
        "roc_auc": 0.3887550200803213,
        "pr_auc": 0.22147127665899768,
        "log_loss": 0.7873656060915675,
        "brier": 0.2632889575142873,
        "balanced_acc": 0.6106194690265486,
        "win_precision": 0.15,
        "win_recall": 0.1,
        "n": 113,
        "n_win": 30,
        "n_loss": 83
      },
      "test": {
        "roc_auc": 0.5954974582425562,
        "pr_auc": 0.3393685314234896,
        "log_loss": 0.8985939428976393,
        "brier": 0.3073426618221339,
        "balanced_acc": 0.5826086956521739,
        "win_precision": 0.390625,
        "win_recall": 0.7352941176470589,
        "n": 115,
        "n_win": 34,
        "n_loss": 81
      }
    }
  },
  "test_confusion": [
    {
      "model": "logistic",
      "test_WIN_predWIN": 3,
      "test_WIN_predLOSS": 31,
      "test_LOSS_predWIN": 7,
      "test_LOSS_predLOSS": 74
    },
    {
      "model": "tree_depth3",
      "test_WIN_predWIN": 3,
      "test_WIN_predLOSS": 31,
      "test_LOSS_predWIN": 9,
      "test_LOSS_predLOSS": 72
    },
    {
      "model": "boost_small",
      "test_WIN_predWIN": 3,
      "test_WIN_predLOSS": 31,
      "test_LOSS_predWIN": 6,
      "test_LOSS_predLOSS": 75
    },
    {
      "model": "mlp16",
      "test_WIN_predWIN": 25,
      "test_WIN_predLOSS": 9,
      "test_LOSS_predWIN": 39,
      "test_LOSS_predLOSS": 42
    }
  ],
  "unresolved_ambiguous_counts": {
    "all_unresolved": 22,
    "all_ambiguous": 5,
    "lead_unresolved": 18,
    "lead_ambiguous": 5,
    "note": "UNRESOLVED/AMBIGUOUS retained in the dataset, excluded from the binary fit, reported here (never destroyed)."
  },
  "feature_sha16": "0414e401522ea4e2"
}