# P3-S24 — RESEARCH VALUE ASSESSMENT & SIGNAL RECOVERY STRATEGY

```text
Session : P3-S24 — RESEARCH VALUE ASSESSMENT (ANALYSIS ONLY)
Status  : COMPLETE
Policy  : docs/CODE_VERIFICATION_AND_SILENT_BUG_POLICY_v1.md
Decision: D — CURRENT EDGE NOT DEMONSTRATED
Next    : P3-S25 = NOT STARTED (owner authorization required)
```

## Purpose

After P3-S23 (corrected-population ML baseline: pooled OOS ROC-AUC 0.5235,
fold-3 collapse to 0.464, calibration worse than the constant prior) this
namespace answers the strategic question:

> Is the current SniperGold research framework limited by insufficient sample
> size, unstable market mechanism, population construction, or lack of
> predictive information?

The phase is ANALYSIS-ONLY: no ML training, no hyper-parameter tuning, no new
features, no label / TP / SL / horizon change, no MQL5 change, no deployment,
no trading, no automatic external-data import.

## Contents

| File | Role |
|---|---|
| `p3_s24_config.py` | Frozen inputs (populations, P3-S23 result, power config, external-data note, evidence phases) |
| `p3_s24_power.py` | Hypothesis A — Hanley-McNeil sample power / CI analysis (standalone, analytic) |
| `p3_s24_heterogeneity.py` | Hypothesis B — descriptive WIN-rate heterogeneity over the 5 frozen dimensions + year (corrected 579 rows) |
| `p3_s24_evidence.py` | Evidence matrix (P3-S18..S23) + research decision matrix + final classification logic |
| `p3_s24_run_main.py` | Orchestrates all analyses and writes `output/p3_s24_*.json` |
| `output/` | Machine evidence (power, heterogeneity, evidence matrix, decision matrix, classification, manifest) |

## Reproducibility

Run twice:

```text
python p3_s24_run_main.py
```

All substantive outputs are deterministic; only `generated_utc` differs.
`output/p3_s24_manifest.json` records a SHA256 of the timestamp-free content
per artifact and an aggregate; the aggregate must be identical across runs
(byte-identical except timestamps).

## Hard constraints honoured

```text
ML training / tuning         : NONE
New features                 : NONE (bins of existing features only, descriptive)
Label / TP / SL / horizon    : NONE changed
MQL5 / production            : NONE changed
External data                : NONE imported (MQL5/Files assessed only)
Deployment / trading         : NONE
P3-S25                       : NOT STARTED
```

*End P3-S24 namespace README.*