# Experiments

Define every pre-registered experiment here (E1..E8 from VALIDATION_PROTOCOL.md).

Initial (bootstrap) experiments — all are `NOT TESTED` pending data+harness runs:

- E1 ARIMA > naive
- E2 SAX > naive
- E3 SAX adds info beyond ARIMA
- E4 ARIMA adds info beyond SAX
- E5 agreement improves conditional performance
- E6 disagreement identifies poor/unstable regimes
- E7 survives transaction costs
- E8 stable across walk-forward periods

Do not add model complexity until E1..E8 are answered.