SniperGold_ML/docs/CURRENT_DECISION_GATE.md

# CURRENT DECISION GATE

```text
Document type : GOVERNANCE / OPERATIONAL
DOCUMENT ROLE : AUTHORIZATION
Created       : 2026-08-28 (P3-GOV-1)
Revision      : v38 (2026-09-06 P3-S25.1AR: STEADY-STATE INGESTION WORKLOAD completed - chunks 738-759; factual cursor advanced - post-chunk-759; CHUNK 760 remains NOT AUTHORIZED)
AUTHORITY     : AUTHORIZATION / PROHIBITION ONLY. This gate defines what may be
                executed, what is explicitly prohibited, and whether owner
                authorization exists. It MUST NOT redefine factual checkpoint
                values. Where it presents the current cursor it MUST reference
                the canonical checkpoint and MUST NOT invent a cursor.
PURPOSE       : A concise gate an AI Assistant reads in EVERY new session.
                If the owner changes the authorized direction, that is recorded HERE.
```

## 1. CURRENT FACTUAL CURSOR

Reference: canonical machine checkpoint
`ml/p3/p3_s251_external_ingest/output/s251_real_checkpoint.json`. Values below
are copied from that checkpoint by machine (P3-GOV-3), not invented here. This
cursor is FACT, not authorization.

```text
run_id                : P3_S251_REAL_TICK_RUN_001
status                : CHUNK_COMMITTED
last_completed_chunk  = 759
current_chunk         = 759
next_chunk            = 760  (derived: last_completed_chunk + 1)
next_byte_offset      = 18442355762  (= next_byte_start)
cumulative rows       = 388,839,639 | M15 425,274 | M30 213,979
SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE   = 24 MiB (P3-S25.1C; no dynamic-chunk change)
SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN  = NOT ESTABLISHED (8 under the tested benchmark workflow = capability evidence only; NOT operational policy)
full ingestion        = NOT COMPLETE (34.5 GB / 722,941,870-row dataset)
```

## 2. CURRENT AUTHORIZATION

```text
Owner decision status (as of 2026-09-06 P3-S25.1AR close-out): NO new execution
authorization has been granted by this gate. The P3-S25.1AR steady-state
ingestion workload (chunks 738-759) changed only the FACTUAL cursor
(section 1); it granted no authorization. The P3-S25.1AR session prompt was
the explicit owner authorization for exactly ONE 512 MiB / 24-worker real
workload continuing from next_byte_start 17905484850 (protocol v2 section 7);
it authorizes nothing beyond that workload.

OPERATIONAL WORKER CONFIGURATION = 24 (PROMOTED by owner decision P3-GOV-7,
                                      2026-09-01; previous operational value
                                      8; effective immediately as the
                                      operational worker-count configuration
                                      of the steady-state ingestion runner;
                                      configuration promotion ONLY - authorizes
                                      no chunk execution)

CHUNK 760                 = NOT AUTHORIZED
Real Chunk 760 execution  = NOT AUTHORIZED by this phase
SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN     = NOT ESTABLISHED as operational policy (8 under the tested benchmark workflow = capability evidence only); P3-S25.1D = benchmark capability established as documented; operational activation still requires an explicit owner decision; multi-chunk turns NOT authorized
SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE      = 24 MiB (no dynamic-chunk change authorized)
Any next action          = requires explicit owner authorization
```

No current-state document, handover, report, checkpoint cursor or old prompt
constitutes authorization. Only an explicit owner decision recorded in this
gate (or the current session prompt) authorizes execution (protocol v2 sec. 7).

## 3. PROHIBITIONS (until separately authorized)

```text
- Modify frozen contracts (F1/F2/F3/F4), Candidate Setup, FEATURE_CONTRACT,
  label contract v1, legacy MLP.
- Any dynamic-chunk change (SAFE_MAX stays 24 MiB).
- Train / evaluate / calibrate / tune / add features / change labels/TP/SL/H to
  force a result. No result-driven tuning.
- Rewrite, delete, or retroactively amend any historical report / CSV / JSON.
- Modify the real source checkpoint outside the allowed ingestion update.
- Read/process the data files other than via an authorized ingest step.
- Use Dukascopy unless an authorized phase adds it.
- Change production MQL5.
- Run multi-chunk-per-turn ingestion or set SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN.
- Process CHUNK 760 (or any later real-ingestion chunk) beyond the single workload authorized by the current session prompt. Treating the factual cursor as authorization is prohibited: next_chunk = 760 is a FACT, never an authorization.
In every case consult docs/CODE_VERIFICATION_AND_SILENT_BUG_POLICY_v1.md.
```

## 4. NEXT DECISION REQUIRED (exact owner decision needed)

```text
The owner must decide ONE of the following; nothing else is authorized:
  (a) authorize P3-S25.1 Stage-B — CHUNK 760 ONLY
      run_id = P3_S251_REAL_TICK_RUN_001 ; chunk_id = 760
      byte_offset = 18,442,355,762 ; at SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE = 24 MiB ; or
  (b) close out the remaining P3-S25.1D multi-chunk turn benchmark and record SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN as owner policy (remains NOT ESTABLISHED until then).
Until that decision is recorded here, CHUNK 760 = NOT AUTHORIZED.
```

## 5. Context (project question and evidence — for orientation)

Current project question: is the current absence of a demonstrated predictive
edge (corrected UTC-clock M30 basis) GENUINE, or a residual artifact of a
broker-feed / data-construction basis mismatch that was never independently
re-validated? Concretely: can the corrected (UTC-clock M30) SniperGold research
construction and the corrected Candidate Setup population (707 in-scope / 610
leads / 579 binary-fit) be reproduced from an INDEPENDENT external-data basis
(Tickstory 34.5 GB XAUUSD tick CSV)?

Established evidence:

```text
- P3-S20 frozen walk-forward pooled ROC-AUC 0.5792 on the OLD (faulty) population:
  FROZEN HISTORICAL (does NOT reflect current basis).
- P3-S22.3 corrected the research M30 construction to fixed UTC-clock buckets
  (100% oracle, 12 regression, 6 mutation, 0 mismatch). CORRECTED BASIS.
- P3-S22.4 validated the corrected population (707 = 610 leads + 97 follow-on;
  175 WIN / 404 LOSS / 25 UNRESOLVED / 6 AMBIGUOUS). VERIFIED (8/8 leakage).
- P3-S23 corrected pre-registered ML baseline: pooled ROC-AUC 0.5235
  (95% CI [0.450, 0.592] contains 0.5); fold3 collapsed (0.464); LogLoss/Brier
  worse than constant prior. VERIFIED.
- P3-S24: classification D — CURRENT EDGE NOT DEMONSTRATED. VERIFIED.
- P3-S25.1C: dynamic chunk-size invariance proven (12/24/48/64 MiB
  byte-identical); SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE = 24 MiB; mutation detection 10/10.
- Real-source ingestion run P3_S251_REAL_TICK_RUN_001: chunks 0-759 committed
  (last_completed_chunk = 759; next chunk 760; next byte offset = 18,442,355,762); CHUNK 760 remains NOT AUTHORIZED.
```

Not established:

```text
- The external Tickstory tick->M15/M30 oracle has NOT yet been run across the
  full 34.5 GB / 722,941,870 rows (P3-S25 late: E - UNRESOLVED).
- External Candidate Setup population parity/replay is NOT reported (PENDING).
- Post-correction positive predictive edge is NOT demonstrated (D stands).
- SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN is NOT ESTABLISHED (broader P3-S25.1D multi-chunk turn
  benchmark OPEN; P3-S25.1D-R isolated the interruption verifier path only).
```

What REQUIRES explicit owner authorization:

```text
- A change to any FROZEN asset (see docs/AUTHORIZED_CHANGE_MATRIX.md and
  docs/FROZEN_ASSET_REGISTER.md).
- Any ML training/eval/calibrate/tune/feature/label change.
- Any change to SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE (P3-S25.1C established 24 MiB).
- Any external data source beyond the authorized Tickstory basis.
- Any production or deployment activity.
- Proceeding past the currently authorized chunk without a new authorization.
```

*End of P3-GOV-3 current decision gate. No new authorization is granted by this update.*