A resumed META model hot-looped pass 1 (0->100% scan oscillation, silent for
3 minutes until the stall reporter fired) because EVERY window failed at the
first AD/Wyckoff feature: the init-time param adoption called
ReInitADIndicators unconditionally, destroying five freshly-calculating
indicator instances to recreate them with BYTE-IDENTICAL params (verified by
parsing the .nnw header - the MI tuner had kept the configured settings), at
process start, on a box with 1 GB free of 31. The replacements sat cold for
6+ minutes while full-history resweeps starved the indicator threads harder.
- AdoptIndicatorParams: installs a loaded param set into the tuner and
rebuilds handles ONLY when the set actually differs from what the live
indicators run. Both call sites (resume init + panel reload) use it.
- Resumed models get the same 3 warm-up passes as fresh ones. The skip was
the shared root cause of the cold-ATR (ba13eef), cold-AD (2026-08-11) and
this incident - custom indicators recompute from scratch every process
start regardless of what the .nnw proves.
- Cold-sweep backoff: a pass-1 sweep in which every window failed on a
TRANSIENT cause arms a 5s era-start pause instead of an immediate
full-history resweep, so the retry loop stops consuming the CPU/memory the
warming indicators need. The stall reporter names the backoff branch.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
350-era S2 verdict on SP500 H1: the meta head carries REAL ranking skill
(+1.0-1.3pp mean over base, 101/350 eras clear their own 2-sigma bar, traded
subset wins 66.1% at <30% coverage vs 64.5% base) but 0/350 eras produced a
positive cov x (p - BE): the candidate stream sits 3pp under the derived
geometry's 67.5% break-even and ~2.6pp of recovered skill cannot bridge it.
Skill plateaued by mid-run (1.28pp -> 1.05pp), so more eras only buy
multiplicity, and the deploy gate correctly shipped nothing.
The aggregate can hide a deployable subset (one family/side clearing BE
blended with junk), so the META era line now decomposes the SAME traded
population into MA/RSI/MACD/Ichimoku x LONG/SHORT cells, each as
traded/candidates base->traded win rate. 32 cells is a best-of-N search by
construction - any candidate cell faces the family-wise rule before belief.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The NN now has a target that is not per-bar direction (closed, best-of-999
p=1.0000): P(win | this journaled candidate, at the EA's own SL/TP, net of
cost). One net for all 52 pattern-sides, AIType=AI_META.
- NetForward.mqh: the host-side softmax+CE gradient generalized total==3 ->
2||3 on both backprop paths; a 2-class softmax IS a logistic head, and no
compute backend changes.
- SignalMETA.mqh (new): corpus loaded read-only from the LARGEST signal DB on
disk (decoupled from the config fingerprint that burned four S1 runs); the
GMT->server offset is measured PER ROW against entryPrice vs bar open
(DST-immune, histogram logged); a window-span regime filter drops the
pre-2017 daily-backfill rows; 31-feature setup descriptor appended at the
input (26 one-hot + side + tanh netVote + SL/TP ATR + spread/ATR).
- Training.mqh: candidate-queued pass 1, binary-target pass 2, per-candidate
calibration (2.5) and OOS (3) walks. Counter mapping win->Buy / loss->Sell
lets checkpoint selection, the edge floor, the plateau ladder and the
family-wise deploy gate run UNCHANGED: precision reads as win rate among
traded candidates, chance as the base win rate, recalls as sensitivity/
specificity. Era-end META line: coverage x (p - break-even) vs the null.
- Labels are the side-conditional triple-barrier win caches - never the DB's
stop-and-reverse outcome. Logit adjustment deliberately skipped (~40% base
rate). Live inference + online learning guarded off until S3.
- Fingerprint: conditional |TGT:META1; State\META\ folder + 2-output filename
slot keep meta models fully separate from direction models.
Compiles clean (0 errors, 0 warnings). S2 run = attach a chart with
AIType=AI_META; S3 wires the votes via the per-side hooks.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The warning lived inside the VerboseMode-gated corpus report, so a
forgotten wipe silently voided an entire 18-year corpus run - the
outdated-row guard rejected the whole replay against leftover rows
and the run appended 35 rows instead of building a corpus. The check
now runs unconditionally at tester OnInit (MetaCorpusStaleCheck): 52
quiet one-row newest-key probes vs the test start, with a loud stop-
wipe-rerun instruction when the DB is newer than the test. Absent
tables probe quietly via FetchNewestTimeKey''s new quiet flag.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The first corpus build produced 3,681 rows, all 2026, from an 18-year
backtest: ProcessSignal''s outdated-row guard rejects any registration
older than a row its table already holds (correct for a live stream),
so a tester run starting before the leftover rows'' dates silently
registers nothing for the overlap. The corpus report now prints a
loud WARNING when running in the tester with DB rows newer than the
test''s start: corpus builds start from an empty DB.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements stage S1 of Meta_Labeling_Design.md, superseding the
original "training-time ladder sweep": the per-side journaling from
652bf81/195be20 already produces the exact candidate stream a sweep
would compute - every pattern instance the live ladders fire, both
sides, uncensored, with netVote and touchable entry price - so the
corpus is READ from the DB instead of re-implementing 26 ladder
conditions in training code. That eliminates the silent-divergence
trap outright: the corpus is by construction identical to live
behaviour. Accepted costs are documented in the module and the doc:
coverage equals the populating backtest, and sampling is one
candidate per fire-stretch (the right dedup for training anyway).
- Expert\AIBase\MetaCorpus.mqh: CMetaCorpus reader (52 tables ->
SMetaCandidate rows) + VerboseMode OnInit report: volume/closed/
S&R-win-rate per family, span, and the GMT->server bar-offset
match table (offsets +0..+3h) that S2''s label plumbing pins to -
measured, not assumed.
- DB_MaxRowsPerTable input (default 1000 = old MAX_TABLE_ROWS): a
corpus build raises it (e.g. 20000) so a 15-20 year backtest
isn''t pruned; wired through CExpertSignalCustom::MaxTableRows().
- Report-only stage: nothing downstream consumes the corpus yet.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The reference-pair set was re-discovered from Market Watch on every
build, so adding or removing a terminal symbol silently changed what a
trained model's six cross-asset features meant - the last open
train/serve parity gap from the 2026-08-11 audit. The set a model's
FIRST successful build actually used is now stamped into its .cfg
(append-and-length-guard, adopt-don't-compare - the derived-barrier
pattern) and every later build constructs the panel from exactly that
list; a pinned pair that is temporarily unavailable is skipped, never
substituted.
Also warms SymbolSelect/SeriesInfo for every reference symbol at
InitNeuralNetwork, so the terminal's ~minute of async cross-symbol
download starts at init instead of when the first Build() trips over
an unselected symbol - the source of the startup 'only 0 usable
reference pairs' console failures.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
On a CFD whose base and quote currency match (SP500 -> USD/USD) the FX
encoding degenerated: base and quote strength were the SAME series twice
and the divergence feature collapsed to the symbol's own 20-bar return.
Index mode re-encodes the six slots: denomination-currency strength
(fast/slow), a risk-proxy currency's strength (JPY by fixed preference
order - deterministic across rebuilds), and divergence as own move minus
what the denomination alone implies. FX-pair symbols are untouched.
Fingerprint gains :IDX2 for base==quote symbols only, so index models
trained under the degenerate encoding re-key while FX models keep their
filenames. FORCES RETRAIN on index/CFD charts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
passTrail demanded m_excTrailScored >= EXCURSION_MIN_SCORED (500), but since
e2c9593 the trail race only scores DISJOINT bars: m_excTrailScored is bounded
by m_excScoredD (~OOS/horizon ~= 256 on SP500 H1) minus the post-ring-clear
warm-up (~8), so every chart failed "[trailing incumbent not warm enough to
race]" at 247-248 of a possible ~256 forever - observed live 2026-08-11 on
all four charts. The counter's statistical population is the same disjoint
sample passDj gates on, so it now takes the same minimum
(EXCURSION_MIN_DISJOINT, 200), reachable with margin after warm-up.
Compile: 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Three findings from the 2026-08-11 audit:
1. The excursion head's trailing-quantile ring was deliberately never cleared
between eras ("a rolling estimate of the market, not of the era") - but
pass 3 re-walks the SAME OOS window every era, so at each walk's restart
the ring still held the outcome masks of the newest OOS bars from the
previous walk: the chronological FUTURE of the bars about to be scored.
For the first ~window+horizon pushes of every era the "trailing" incumbent
was partly a leading one - conservative for the gate (an informed incumbent
is a harder hurdle) but exactly the self-made-artifact class 06d4785 hunts.
The ring now clears at era-score reset; the warm-up bars simply don't score
the trail race, which the m_excTrailN gating already accounts for.
2. skillTrail compared the head's FULL-block Brier (pro-rated by coverage)
against the incumbent's subset sum - valid only if head skill is uniform
across the OOS walk, while the trail-scored subset systematically excludes
each era's warm-up bars. The audit also found m_excBrierHeadD/BaseD/
m_excOosHitsD declared, zeroed and never accumulated (dead since e2c9593
made every scored bar disjoint). The dead trio is replaced by
m_excBrierHeadT: the head's Brier accumulated only on the bars the warm
incumbent also scored, so the race now compares both predictors on an
identical bar set.
3. The AD/Wyckoff feature blocks read GetData with no EMPTY_VALUE guard; a
cold (still-calculating) indicator returns EMPTY_VALUE everywhere, the
sanitize loop rewrote that to 0.0, and the bar SUCCEEDED - so
BufferTempData cached an all-zero Wyckoff block as a success for the whole
bar frame: the one path the f6150ee only-cache-successes rule cannot see,
because it never fails (the ba13eef class, arriving through values that
never fail; a resumed model's era-0 prebuild starts milliseconds after
OnInit). ADIndicatorCold() probes the NEWEST bar - EMPTY_VALUE there means
async warm-up (transient reject, retried), while deep bars beyond the
buffered depth keep the sanitize loop's neutral-fill so degraded history
still trains. Also fixed m_featureCacheValid's declaration comment, which
still described the pre-f6150ee cached-miss semantics.
Compile: 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
RefreshLatestSignal ran at the first tick after a bar opens and built its
window at r=0: series index 0 at that instant is a candle with one tick of
data - (close-open)/atr ~ 0, high ~ low, degenerate volume, indicators on a
1-tick bar. Training never produces such a window (every labeled bar is fully
closed, entry at that bar's CLOSE), so the deployed model's final timestep -
the one the LSTM/HYBRID output is keyed to - was out-of-distribution on every
live decision, and pass 3's deploy-gate OOS scores measured a different query
than live executed. The parity index is r=1: the newest CLOSED bar, whose
close IS the current price - the exact instant the label's hypothetical entry
happens. Single backtests shared the old skew (same r=0), which is why the
tester agreed with live while both disagreed with training.
Bookkeeping split that the index change forces: m_lastBarTime/dtStudied stay
anchored to the FORMING bar's open (they gate against SERIES_LASTBAR_DATE;
anchoring at bar 1 would re-fire the refresh every tick), while bt - the
arrow, its High/Low placement, and NMS declustering - anchors to the decision
bar, now matching the rescan path's convention.
Also: a failed refresh no longer trades the previous bar's signal for the
whole bar. RefreshLatestSignal returns success, zeroes dPrevSignal on failure
(no opinion beats a stale one), and RefreshConvergedSignal advances dtStudied
only on success so the next tick retries - the tester path (m_lastBarTime)
already worked this way; this is the live path catching up.
FORCES RE-VALIDATION of deployed models: the effective live query distribution
changes. Bundled with the backprop transpose fix's retrain.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Pass 1 already skipped its feedForward on QUEUED bars, because pass 2 redoes
them. The same argument covers two more bands it was still forwarding:
OOS window (30% of bars) - pass 3 re-forwards every one of them
calibration band (~10% of bars) - pass 2.5 re-forwards every one of them
All three passes derive their bounds from the same helpers and apply the
identical eligibility test, so the bar sets are equal by construction, not by
coincidence. Only the two purge bands and the ineligible edge bars are visited
in pass 1 and nowhere else - those keep their forward pass.
The scan's copy was never the one that survived. Its arrow-cache write was
overwritten by pass 3's (with the thresholded, post-training decision), its
status-label paint was transient, and its predicted-class tally measured
last era's weights. Those tallies move to pass 2.5 and pass 3, on the raw
argmax exactly as pass 1 and pass 2 count it, so the population behind the
panel's "Predicted -> Buy/Sell/Neutral" line is unchanged and stays comparable
with the "Actual" line beside it, which pass 1 still accumulates over every
labelled bar.
Verified unaffected by the cut: dPrevSignal and m_lastBarTime are both written
last by bars 0/1, which are label-ineligible and therefore still forwarded, so
FinalizeTrainRun's `dtStudied = m_lastBarTime` and Lifecycle's newBarPending
sentinel read the same values as before.
Correctness, not just speed: batch norm is UNFROZEN during pass 1 (passes 2.5
and 3 freeze it deliberately), so every scan-time forward on a held-out bar was
advancing the BN running mean/variance from data the model is graded on. Those
running statistics are inference-time model state. It is the mild,
unsupervised kind of leakage - feature statistics, not labels - but it fed the
weights pass 3 then scored, and it is now gone.
Cost: ~40% of all bars lose one forward pass per era, ~16% of net time once
pass 2's backward pass is weighted in. Per-dispatch, so it lands on every
backend.
Both variants compile 0 errors / 0 warnings. Build tag scan-nofwd-v5.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Measured on exc-race-v3: LSTM era 300s -> 1087s (net 272->748s, "other"
30->337s). My estimate had been "single-digit percent". The cost is
per-DISPATCH, not per-FLOP, and therefore hits EVERY backend: the head is
19k weights and ~2.4 GFLOP an era - seconds of arithmetic - but ~48k
forward/backward calls x several layer submits each, and its 760-wide
layer exceeds the CPU DLL's inline threshold so each one pays a real
handoff. The classifier's own net time tripled too, from contention with
a second pool on an already-full box.
Three changes, all backend-neutral because they remove submits rather
than tune threads:
SCORE ONLY DISJOINT WINDOWS (~64x). Adjacent bars share all but one bar
of their horizon, so 16k consecutive bars were always ~250 independent
observations - the full-sample tally was never worth more than the
disjoint one, it just quoted an n that was ~64x too large. Dropping it
costs nothing statistically and removes 63 of every 64 forward passes.
The two parallel tallies collapse into one, which is also less code.
The trailing ring still advances on every bar: it needs the outcome
SEQUENCE, and that is array lookups, not a forward pass.
TRAIN ON EVERY 4th PRIMARY BAR (4x). The target is low-dimensional and
strongly autocorrelated - neighbouring bars carry near-identical
excursion information - so per-bar training buys resolution the target
does not have. Strided on ATTEMPTS, not acceptances, so a stretch of
unlabelled bars cannot silently change the spacing.
OWN TIMING COLUMN. The head's passes were landing in the era line's
"other" bucket, which is how a 3.6x regression read as an unexplained
jump in the one column nobody attributes. A cost that cannot be seen in
the timing line cannot be traded off against anything.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Leftover objects survived deinit because the cleanup list had drifted.
PurgeChart()'s own comment said it removed "our namespaced signal arrows
plus the status-label objects" while the code removed arrows ONLY, and
the panel prefix was swept at OnInit and nowhere else - so an ordinary
deinit left the status line, and any panel straggler, on the chart.
Three scattered call sites and a comment cannot be kept in step. There is
now ONE list - WarriorChartPrefixes() - covering arrows, status label and
panel, and one sweep, WarriorPurgeChartObjects(), used by every path.
Add a prefix there when a new object family appears and every cleanup
picks it up.
Two call sites added:
OnInit, before ANYTHING is drawn (including the status label it would
otherwise delete). Chart objects live in the chart PROFILE, not in the
EA, so they outlive the process: a deinit force-terminated at
MetaTrader's ~4,500 ms budget, a crash, a terminal kill, or an .ex5
replaced while attached all strand objects no later deinit will ever
own - and deleting the EA's files does not remove them, which is why
they read as corruption. Arrows are included: LoadChartSignals restores
them from their sidecar moments later and already opens with its own
arrow sweep, so this only removes orphans the sidecar does not account
for - the ones SaveChartSignals would otherwise ADOPT, since it rebuilds
that sidecar by scanning the chart.
OnDeinit, after ExtPanel.Destroy. Destroy walks an unbounded control
tree and ClearStatusLabel clears text rather than guaranteeing object
removal; either can leave a straggler and nothing looked afterwards.
Bounded work - three prefix deletes and one object-list scan - so it
respects the ordering rule that keeps the cheap visible cleanup ahead
of the heavy save. Arrows excluded: ShutdownChartCleanup already
persisted and removed them and re-deleting would race that write.
The two are complementary: the deinit sweep closes the ordinary case, the
OnInit purge closes the case where MetaTrader never let us finish. Only
the second can help after a starved shutdown.
Both sweeps rescan by name across EVERY object type and delete what the
bulk call missed. ObjectsDeleteAll's return has already been observed
disagreeing with a by-name scan of the same chart microseconds apart, and
object commands are queued on the chart rather than applied inline, so a
returned count is not evidence the objects are gone.
Panel create site now uses WARRIOR_PANEL_PREFIX instead of a literal, so
the name cannot drift away from the list that cleans it up.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Beating a frozen global constant is the weakest admissible bar for
replacing a global constant. The honest incumbent is a rolling rung
frequency: it adapts to the volatility regime - exactly what the head
claims to predict - and needs no model, no 760 inputs and no training.
Implemented as a ring of per-bar outcome bitmasks (32 rungs fit one
ulong), sized horizon + EXCURSION_TRAIL_WINDOW. The newest `horizon`
entries are held back UNRESOLVED: a bar's rung outcomes are only known
one horizon later, so using them would be lookahead and would flatter the
incumbent into an opponent the head could never fairly beat. Pass 3 walks
oldest-to-newest, so "pushed more than horizon bars ago" is exactly
"resolved by now". Each push is O(rungs), not O(window).
The head's decision-rung Brier is pro-rated to the trailing estimate's
coverage before the ratio, since the incumbent only scores bars where its
window is warm.
This line is worth reading on its own, independently of the head: if the
trailing quantile beats the global constant, that is a cheap risk-control
win available with no machine learning at all - and it is the same number
either way, so the run answers both questions in one pass.
The ring is deliberately NOT reset per era - it estimates the market, not
the era, and re-warming 500 bars every era would leave the incumbent
unusable over the first chunk of every scoring pass, handing the head a
free win on exactly those bars.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Second-opinion review killed the +4.2% far-rung result, correctly, and
the mechanism is my own bug. A head trained toward {0.05,0.9} converges
to 0.05+0.85p, so its bias is 0.05-0.15p: negative where p is near 1,
POSITIVE where p < 1/3, growing monotonically as the rung gets farther.
Against a baseline frozen at the IS rate, an upward-biased head scores
positive Brier skill whenever the OOS rate merely sits above the IS rate.
Predicted signature: huge negatives near, ~zero at p=1/3, growing
positives far. Observed: -82% ... -0.6% ... +1.2/+2.7/+4.2. The far rungs
were not the clean end of a distorted measurement, they were the other
face of the same artifact. Everything before 25aca83 is void.
The gate was a bare `skill >= 2%` point estimate over 8 rungs x 4
topologies x N eras, reported per era - a best-of-~300 with no interval
and no multiplicity control, which is the shape of the four traps already
documented here. It now needs FOUR things at once:
DECISION RUNGS only the rungs ExcursionQuantile actually reads at the
live geometry (target 1.62, stop 3.31 ATR), fixed
before looking. Skill at 5 ATR is skill about a
distance no order is placed at - and the TARGET side
currently interpolates 1.5/2.0, which measured -2.2%
and -1.3%.
DISJOINT SAMPLE one bar per horizon. Adjacent bars share 63 of 64
horizon bars, so ~16k scored bars is ~250 independent
ones and every SE over the full set is ~8x understated.
VS ORACLE the best constant achievable ON THE SCORED BLOCK,
closed form from H and n (Brier = H*(1-H/n)). A head
that learned only a LEVEL nearer the OOS rate than the
frozen IS constant scores positive against the old
baseline and <= 0 here. This is the control that
separates per-bar skill from base-rate drift.
MONOTONE CURVE P(reach k) must be non-increasing in k. Nothing
constrained 8 independent sigmoids to obey that, and
ExcursionQuantile returns the FIRST crossing - so a
tangled curve is misread exactly where the head is
least sure. Counted and reported, not silently used.
The pass message now also states what a pass would and would not buy:
expectancy is -costs at zero directional edge whatever the stop distance,
and under prop DD limits LOWER variance also lowers P(reach target before
limit), so "better drawdown" is a choice of failure mode, not a win.
Still owed before any Stage 2: a race against a trailing-quantile
incumbent and a vol-feature logistic. Beating a frozen global constant is
the weakest admissible bar for replacing a global constant.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
ExcursionTargets built its 32 binary targets from the classifier's
LABEL_SMOOTH_HIGH/LOW (0.9/0.05). That caps what the head can ever output
at 0.9, and the near ladder rungs have base rates close to 1.0 - almost
every bar travels 0.5 ATR inside a 64-bar horizon. The Brier comparison
is then decided before the net learns anything:
constant at 0.99 -> 0.99*(0.01)^2 + 0.01*(0.99)^2 = 0.0099
head at 0.90 -> 0.99*(0.10)^2 + 0.01*(0.90)^2 = 0.0180 skill -82%
Which is what the first run reported at rung 0.50: PAI -61.8%,
CONV -146%. A property of the target encoding, not of predictability.
Smoothing earns its place on the 3-class head, where it stops one logit
running away inside a softmax competition. There is no competition here
and this head is scored on calibration, so it has to be free to say 0.99
when the answer is 0.99. Hard 1/0 is safe against the runaway smoothing
guards: this is an MSE-on-sigmoid gradient (calcOutputGradients) whose
(target - output) term vanishes as the output approaches the target, not
the unbounded-logit cross-entropy the classifier uses.
The far rungs, where the artifact is smallest, already showed positive
skill on the two topologies with a sequence stage (LSTM 3.00:+1.2%
4.00:+2.7% 5.00:+4.2%, HYBRID similar), so the verdict was being decided
by the most distorted end of the ladder.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
ba13eef cached a miss unless it was flagged transient, and flagged
exactly two guards: the EMPTY_VALUE open and the cold ATR. Every other
rejection in BufferTempDataCompute - an indicator buffer not yet
calculated, a panel not yet built, a series not yet loaded, a failed Add -
still cached as PERMANENT.
Observed 2026-08-11: the MI pre-scan runs ~3 s after OnInit and touches
all 54k bars while the indicators are still warming. The log announced it
immediately and unmistakably:
feature/label information - ... (0 samples 19 bars apart
= 0 independent blocks over a 64-bar horizon, 0.0s)
Zero usable rows, four seconds in. Training then stalled at era 0 for an
hour with "NOT ONE of 54681 scanned bars produced a usable feature
window" on all four charts. Both charts reporting cross-asset PRESENT and
both reporting ABSENT got 0 samples, so the optional block was not the
discriminator - the cache was.
Enumerating which rejections are "really" permanent is the wrong shape of
fix: it is a list that must be re-audited every time a feature block is
added, and being wrong once costs the whole run silently - which is
exactly how the two-guard version failed. Caching only successes needs no
list and cannot be wrong.
Cost is bounded and small: in steady state the only bars that still fail
are the handful at the deep end of history inside the indicators' own
warm-up, so an era recomputes ~ind_Periods bars rather than 54k.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Era 0 stalls with "NOT ONE of 54681 scanned bars produced a usable
feature window, windows ok=0 failed=54681" and nothing else. That line
reads identically for a cold ATR, a conditionally-missing optional
feature block and an out-of-range index, so it cannot be diagnosed
without one restart per hypothesis.
Two changes:
1. WIDTH CONTRACT in BufferTempData. Every enabled block must emit
exactly m_neuronsCount values on EVERY bar. A block that emits its
values on some bars and skips them on others (indicator, panel or
series unavailable for that bar) does not merely shorten the window -
it SHIFTS every feature after it into the wrong slot, and the net
then trains on silently misaligned inputs that still look like a
valid window to everything downstream. Now rejected, rolled back and
reported once, naming the optional blocks (XA / SPR / swing context)
as the ones carrying an availability test. Worth having independently
of the current stall.
2. BuildFeatureWindow records WHICH lookback slot rejected and how much
of the window was assembled, and the pass-1 stall report renders it:
"slot 0 of 20 REJECTED (window had 0 of 760)" is an indicator warm-up
or history-edge read; "every lookback bar ACCEPTED and the window was
still short: 640 of 760" is a missing 6-value block.
No behaviour change on a healthy run: the width check is an equality
that already holds, and the diagnostics render only inside the
total-failure branch.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Direction is closed - normalised asymmetry fails on three instruments
with a working positive control, and the classifier's own best-of-999
era-cap test agrees (+0.9pp = 1.48 sigma, family-wise p=1.0000). SIZE is
a different question and RANGE clears at ~4x its null.
Checked the denomination before building on that, since the source memo
warns to: m_excUpCache holds (maxHigh - fill)/ATR, so "RANGE is
predictable" is a claim about travel RELATIVE to current ATR, not a
restatement of "ATR is autocorrelated". It is exactly the part a fixed
multiple (stop 3.31*ATR, target 1.64*ATR) discards.
A second small CNet, 760 -> 24 -> 32 sigmoid outputs = P(price reaches
ladder rung k) upward and downward. Survival parameterisation rather than
regressing the multiple, because it needs nothing new from CNet: sigmoid
outputs and the per-neuron delta the `total != 3` branch already applies
(a quantile head would need a linear activation and a pinball gradient in
Network.mqh, Network.cl and the DirectML path, on a class four topologies
share). Targets are free - m_ladderUpAt already records first-touch age
per rung with 0 meaning never reached.
Separate net, not extra outputs on the classifier: more outputs would
change m_outputNeuronsCount, the .nnw shape and the fingerprint, and push
the count off 3 - the exact condition backProp uses to select the joint
softmax gradient the 3-class head depends on. The classifier is
bit-for-bit unaffected and this is removable without trace.
STAGE 1 PLACES NO ORDERS. It reports a Brier skill score against the
constant per-rung base rate - the baseline a fixed ATR multiple already
assumes - with both predictors fitted IS and evaluated OOS, so neither
gets a look at the test set. Positive skill justifies Stage 2 (drive
SL/TP and sizing off ExcursionQuantile, which is defined and deliberately
uncalled). Zero or negative means ATR already carries everything and
Stage 2 must not be built.
Trains only on primary occurrences: the replay queue oversamples for
CLASS balance, and a direction-balanced sample is a biased SIZE sample.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
coveragePct, dirPrecPct and the declustered TRADED tally were all computed
from oPrevSignal - the RAW argmax - while the live order, the arrow and the
panel all run on oDeploySignal, which is argmax AFTER the confidence
threshold. The gate was certifying a strategy the EA does not trade.
Invisible until now: the threshold sat at ~0.02, so the two populations
were the same set. The held-out calibration slice (2189316) moved it to
0.14-0.40 and the gap opened immediately - PAI era 256 graded 100% coverage
while its traded population was 21% (3,399 of ~16,200 OOS bars).
Consequences that were being hidden:
- coveragePct >= minCoveragePct was tested against the wrong population,
so a model whose TRADED coverage falls under the 24.8% floor still read
as clearing it
- precSE = sqrt(p(1-p)/n) used n ~16,000 instead of n ~3,400, so the
EDGE_MIN_SIGMAS bar was ~2.2x too lenient on the real evidence
- the NMS replay declustered a different, larger stream than live, so
threshold-rejected bars consumed cluster slots and set alternation state
Gate quantities now read m_oosBuyFired/m_oosSellFired (the thresholded
population, already tracked for the live-precision line) and the NMS replay
runs on oDeploySignal. The threshold can only turn a direction into Neutral,
never flip a side, so the fired set is a strict subset and every per-bar
outcome is the one already computed.
Recall and logBuyPrecPct deliberately stay on the raw argmax: they measure
intrinsic class separation, and thresholding them would conflate "cannot
separate the classes" with "declines to act on the separation it found".
This is the 9a7c37f defect class, and the NMS block carried a comment
warning about it while committing it three lines above.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
FitDirConfThreshold harvested its margin histogram from pass 2's own
backprop samples. Pairing every fit against the same era's OOS result
shows what that measured:
PAI era 1 IS 25% cov @ 66.1% (-0.8pp) -> OOS 64% (-3pp) gap +2.1pp
PAI era 76 IS 90% cov @ 79.6% (+12.7pp) -> OOS 65% (-2pp) gap +14.6pp
LSTM era 9 IS 77% cov @ 81.6% (+14.6pp) -> OOS 63% (-4pp) gap +18.6pp
The gap grows monotonically while OOS stays flat, so within a handful of
eras the curve stops describing behaviour on unseen bars. That is fatal
here specifically, because the objective branches on the SIGN of
(p - break-even): the memorized curve reads +12pp at 95% coverage, so
coverage x (p - p0) correctly maximises coverage and returns ~0.02 - fire
on every bar. The "p < p0 -> get more selective" branch, which is the
actual regime and the entire point of 983a6a3, could never fire because IS
never showed p < p0.
Carve a calibration slice out of the IS span - DIR_CONF_CALIB_PCT_OF_IS,
purged from backprop by one label horizon on BOTH sides (the far-side
purge is not optional: without it the newest training bars carry labels
partly decided by price action inside the slice, putting the memorization
straight back into the curve). Score it in a new chunked pass 2.5, after
pass 2 has trained and before pass 3 grades - the only position where the
histogram is simultaneously not-trained-on, not-graded, and current with
the weights it will be applied to.
Costs 15% of the training data. Worth it beyond honesty: the deploy gate
needs dirPrecPct > chance + EDGE_MIN_SIGMAS*SE, and a threshold pinned
near zero dilutes any edge concentrated in the confident bars across every
bar the model calls, driving dirPrecPct toward chance by construction. A
threshold that can be selective is the only mechanism by which a small,
concentrated edge could ever clear that gate.
Also: a sparse histogram now KEEPS the previous threshold instead of
resetting to 0.0. A failed measurement must not decay to the most exposed
setting in the range.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
SignalClusterWindow 3 -> 10 for all topologies. On H1 a 3-bar window
collapsed only the tightest runs and left visible clusters at every
turn; 10 bars is closer to the spacing of genuinely distinct setups.
ALTERNATION. Rule 1 only collapses a same-direction run INSIDE the
window; past it a second Buy is emitted with no Sell between, giving
Buy/Buy/Buy/Sell. With both directions tradeable that sequence is the
model re-entering a move it is already in rather than finding a new
one. The kept sequence must now alternate: the first signal passes,
and after that a direction passes only if the last KEPT signal was the
opposite one.
Added to ALL THREE consumers, with identical logic, because they must
agree:
- NmsLiveAccept -> the live trade
- pass 3's OOS replay -> the tally the deploy gate grades
- PruneDirectionalClusters -> the drawn history
A rule applied to only some of these certifies one strategy and trades
another - the same defect class as the geometry the gate certified
while OpenParams placed something else (9a7c37f) - and would draw the
user arrows the EA would never have taken.
Deliberately NOT applied to the LABEL. The barrier target has no "must
flip" invariant: consecutive Buy labels are routinely correct, and an
earlier alternation gate was removed with the triple-barrier relabel
for exactly that reason. This filters what is ACTED ON, which is what
"applies to training" can honestly mean here - pass 3's declustered
tally is the training-side number that decides deployment.
BothDirectionsTradeable() is the stated precondition (with one side
disabled there is no opposite to wait for, so alternation would
suppress everything after the first call). This build has no
long-only/short-only input, so it is constant true - kept as a named
predicate so a future direction restriction has one place to change
rather than three call sites silently assuming both sides.
Build tag -> nms-alternate-v4.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
FitDirConfThreshold walked from the most selective bin down to bin 0
keeping `precPct >= bestPrec`, with the stated intent that a plateau
should walk toward more coverage. The failure mode is the models that
need a threshold most: a net with no edge scores its base rate at
EVERY threshold - a perfect plateau - so the walk ran all the way to
bin 0 and returned 0.0, i.e. fire on every bar.
Reported as PAI "overshooting signals" while the other three stayed
selective. PAI has the flattest plateau because its margin
distribution is the most degenerate: its OOS outputs span the full
0.000..1.000 where CONV sits at 0.214..0.814, so nearly every call
lands in the top bins and precision barely moves as the walk descends.
The deeper problem is that precision is not the money quantity. For a
k:m barrier with p0 = m/(m+k),
EV = (p - p0) * (k + m) => EV per bar = coverage * (p - p0) * (k+m)
and (k+m) is constant across thresholds, leaving coverage * (p - p0).
That objective needs no tie-break and behaves correctly everywhere:
p > p0 everywhere -> takes the coverage (the old outcome, now for a
reason rather than as a plateau artifact)
p flat at p0 -> every point scores 0, the coverage floor decides
p < p0 everywhere -> the LEAST coverage loses the least, so it gets
MORE selective instead of trading everything
The last case is the current reality for all four models (-1 to -4pp
against break-even) and is the exact opposite of what the old rule
did. The comparison is sound: the histogram is already fitted on wins
(qTradeWon), not label agreement, so precision and break-even measure
the same quantity.
Ties now keep the more selective point - the loop reaches it first and
the test is strict >.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
The risk/reward explanation was a second, wrapped line and cost more
vertical space than it earned - that detail belongs in the journal,
where the geometry is already logged in full.
The comparison itself stays, in two words: "64% (unseen data, need
67%)". Without it the win rate reads as skill when it is the barrier
geometry's own base rate, which is exactly how four models sitting at
chance came to look like four models at 65%.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Both made the run structurally unable to succeed, independently of any
signal in the data. Found by reading the 13:01 log.
RECALL GATE. m_objectiveMet required Buy, Sell AND Neutral OOS recall
each >= 40%. First-touch resolution (ce52654) collapsed Neutral from
the ~94% majority it was under exact-pivot labels to a same-bar-tie
residue - 250 of 38,261 bars, 0.65% - so the floor was asking the model
to identify 40% of coin-flip ties before it could converge. Measured:
CONV, LSTM and HYBRID all logged "Neutral:0% (need >=40% each)" on
every era. No model could ever satisfy it; every run was destined for
the plateau ladder or the era cap.
Only the DIRECTIONAL floors are load-bearing for the anti-collapse job
the gate exists to do: an all-Neutral model shows Buy and Sell recall
at 0% and is blocked by them. Neutral's own floor guarded the mirror
bias (over-calling Buy/Sell at Neutral's expense), which was real at
94% prevalence and is not at 0.65% - there, almost never calling
Neutral is correct rather than biased.
Prevalence-guarded rather than hardcoded off, so it returns by itself
if a future label rule makes Neutral substantial again. Deliberately
NOT extended to Buy/Sell: exempting a thin directional class reopens
the era-44-46 hole, which directionalRecallMeasured only half-covers -
it checks those classes were MEASURED, not that they passed.
ETA DECAY. A regressing era restored the checkpoint, reset the
optimizer and cut eta - all on the FIRST regression. The next era then
started from an identical state with a smaller step, regressed again,
and got the same treatment. The loop is self-sustaining and cannot
discover anything, because rolling the weights back is exactly what
removes the exploration that would end it.
Measured on PAI: eras 2-11 every one a regression against era 1, eta
0.000594 -> 0.000024, dW/W 0.000%/0.000% from era 2 onward. Ten eras,
~45s each, reproducing era 1 exactly and unable to do anything else.
Now requires ETA_DECAY_PATIENCE_ERAS consecutive regressions - the
standard ReduceLROnPlateau formulation. A single bad era is noise, and
an improving era clears the counter so alternating runs never
accumulate into a decay.
Build tag -> gate-patience-v3. It had not moved in six commits, which
is why the running binary could not be identified from its own log.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Chart objects live in the MT5 chart PROFILE, not in this EA's files.
They survive a terminal restart, a recompile, and deleting every
.nnw/.cfg/.stats/.arrows on disk. Only a deinit that RUNS TO COMPLETION
removes them - and MetaTrader force-terminates OnDeinit at roughly
4,500 ms, so a run killed mid-cleanup orphans them permanently with no
owner left to clean up after. That is the "deleted every file,
recompiled, restarted, old arrows and a stale panel still there"
report: nothing was wrong with the files and deleting them could not
have helped.
Both halves are fixed.
STOP OVERRUNNING THE BUDGET. OnDeinit used to finalise the in-flight
run (StopTraining -> FinalizeTrainRun: checkpoint restore, live-state
re-seed) and then write two full nets per chart. On four charts that is
the bulk of the budget, spent to preserve a PARTIAL era that was never
scored, never checkpointed and never deployable. FlushTrainRun()
discards it instead - drop the resumable bookkeeping, leave the net
neutral (unfreeze BN, flush the batch, batch size 1), skip the save -
and training resumes from the last completed era, which the era-end
save and the periodic autosave have already put on disk. What is
discarded is bounded by one era.
A CONVERGED model keeps the old finalise-and-save path: its weights can
carry online-learning updates made since the last era boundary, and for
a deployed model no further era boundary is coming to persist them.
MAKE CLEANUP SELF-HEALING. Every purge sat behind a branch - no model
loaded, sidecar missing - so the common paths returned leaving whatever
the previous instance stranded. LoadChartSignals now sweeps the arrow
namespace unconditionally before restoring, so the post-init chart
holds exactly what the sidecar holds whichever branch runs, and the
panel gets the same treatment before Create() (CAppDialog namespaces
its controls, so a killed Destroy strands the lot and the next attach
draws a second panel on the corpse).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Corrects the premise of the previous plan. Break-even is NOT a ceiling.
If the model shifts the win probability on the bars it selects from
p0 = m/(m+k) to p0 + d, then
EV = (p0+d)*k - (1-p0-d)*m = d*(k+m)
because p0*k - (1-p0)*m is zero by construction. The stop:target RATIO
is expectancy-neutral - a punishing break-even is exactly repaid by the
payoff - and only the real edge d and the TOTAL WIDTH (k+m) move EV.
Width matters because the spread is charged once per trade however wide
the barriers are, so a narrow barrier spends much of its own range on
costs. DeriveBarrierGeometry's own comment already said the ratio buys
nothing; the objective just never followed from it.
Blocker this had to solve first: m_excUpCache/m_excDownCache hold only
MAXIMUM travel each way, and a maximum cannot say which side was
reached FIRST - so any geometry other than the walked one was
undecidable on precisely the bars where both barriers were touched,
~28% of the sample.
- BARRIER_LADDER: per bar, the first-touch AGE for 8 travel distances
in each direction, filled during the walk the labels already run.
Cursors keep it O(1) amortised per walked bar rather than 16
comparisons. Levels are travel FROM ENTRY, not barrier prices, so one
ladder serves both directions and the spread is applied analytically
when a level converts back to an SL/TP multiple - storing prices
would need four ladders and bake today's spread into the cache.
Sized, invalidated and validity-gated with the label caches.
- ReportGeometryExpectancyScan: every ladder pair priced exactly off
that cache - width in ATR and in SPREADS (cost efficiency, knowable
without knowing d), break-even, both base rates, the share of bars
resolved inside the horizon, and EV per unit of edge. Compares the
widest resolvable pair against the quantile rule's pick.
MEASUREMENT ONLY - the quantile rule still chooses. Nothing here can
measure d, and width buys nothing if the wider target is less
predictable. Base rates are printed beside each break-even because a
persistent gap is DRIFT and must not be credited to the model.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
"Buy/Sell calls correct: 65% (unseen data, lifetime)" is a WIN RATE -
m_cumOosCorrect advances on oTradeWon, did the implied trade reach its
target before its stop - not label agreement. A win rate means nothing
without the barrier that produced it.
With the measured geometry a trade risks slMult*ATR to make tpMult*ATR,
so under a driftless walk ANY directional call wins
slMult/(slMult+tpMult) of the time for free. On the shipped 3.33/1.62
pair that is 67.3%, and the empirical long-win base rate on this window
is ~65.7%. All four topologies read 65%: at chance, and below
break-even, while the panel announced "65% correct".
Four models with completely different trade counts agreeing on one
number was the tell - a win rate fixed by the geometry rather than
produced by the network. The deploy gate already benchmarks against
this null (chancePrecPct); the panel did not, and the panel is what a
buyer reads.
The line now carries its own break-even and the risk/reward that sets
it, so the number can never again be read as edge on its own.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
BufferTempData cached EVERY failure - m_featureCacheHasValue[idx]=true
with m_featureCacheValid[idx]=false - and the cache never re-tries a
miss. So a single feature read taken before the terminal had finished
calculating the indicator buffers marked those bars unusable for the
rest of the process, even though the data arrived milliseconds later.
MT5 fills an indicator's buffers asynchronously after the handle is
created, and a cold ATR returns 0 for EVERY index, not just its warm-up
tail. BufferTempDataCompute rejects a bar with no ATR (correctly - the
price features would be meaningless), so the whole window failed, and
the whole cache was poisoned.
Only resumed models were hit, because only they read features that
early. Topology.mqh sets m_warmupPassesRemaining = netLoaded ? 0 : 3:
a fresh start sits through three separately-scheduled Train() calls
before anything touches a feature, which is exactly what those passes
are for. A resumed one skips them and TuneIndicatorsAndTrain drives
StartLabelCachePrebuild and the MI report from the first chart event.
Its rationale - "a restart already has a proven-synced history" - holds
for HISTORY and not for INDICATORS, which are recreated every process
start.
Downstream: BuildFeatureWindow failed on every bar of every era, so
add_loop never went true, so pass 2, pass 3, the era counter and the
checkpoint were all skipped and pass 1 swept 0->100% forever. The
"0 samples" MI report line at startup was the same failure, four
seconds earlier, already visible in the log.
- a miss is now cached only when it is PERMANENT; the two "not ready
yet" guards mark m_featureFailTransient and are recomputed on the
next visit. Steady-state cost is ~ind_Periods bars per era, not 54k.
- an era that discards itself now drops the feature cache before
restarting, so any remaining cause of this state self-heals instead
of looping.
Deleting the .nnw "fixed" this only by turning the model back into a
fresh one.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
add_loop is exactly "at least one bar produced a usable feature
window". When it stays false, pass 2, pass 3, the era counter, the
checkpoint and every log line in the era-end block are ALL skipped:
Train() returns having done nothing, m_eraResumePending is still false,
and the next call restarts the SAME era from bar 0. That is an
infinite 0->100% "scan" loop that prints absolutely nothing - the only
remaining silent restart path in Train(), and it matches the reported
symptom exactly.
Pass 1 now counts usable vs unusable windows and reports at the pass
boundary, which demonstrably executes:
- total failure routes through ReportTrainStall (already capped at
one line a minute, and carries the run-state flags) naming the
counts, the required window width and the bar count
- success prints how long the scan took and how many samples it
handed to pass 2, but only once the era has passed 10s - a fast
era stays as quiet as before, a slow one distinguishes "advancing"
from "sweeping the same bars forever"
A PARTIAL failure is normal and deliberately does not shout: pass 1
walks oldest-to-newest and the deepest bars predate the indicators'
warm-up, so those windows fail and are cached as misses.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
ScheduleTrainingIfNeeded() armed the next Train() call only when
dtStudied < lastBarDate. That watermark test is right for a CONVERGED
model - one inference refresh per new bar - and wrong for a training
run, because Train() is chunked: it does ~120ms of work and yields,
needing thousands of calls to finish one era, and every one of those
calls has to be armed from there.
dtStudied is two incompatible things. Train() sets it to the training
WINDOW START (~2008); FinalizeTrainRun() sets it to the last bar
SCANNED (~now). So the moment any run finalized, the scheduler went
silent until the next candle closed. On H1 that is one chunk per hour.
The symptom was indistinguishable from a hang: no era lines, no
heartbeats, not one of the six instrumented stall branches - because
Train() was not being CALLED. The TRAIN STALL line that caught it
reported runActive=Y only because m_trainRunActive had been set
microseconds earlier in that same call, and eraResume=N proved no era
was in flight. Two log bursts, 28 minutes apart, exactly one H1 bar.
Before 0c85c54 this was survivable rather than correct: the saved
watermark left almost no bars eligible per era, so eras were nearly
free and one call per bar still looked like progress.
An unconverged model is now always pending. Pause/stop are handled by
m_trainingPaused/m_trainingStopRequested, which Train() checks itself.
Also: the one Train() exit that tears down the whole run on a buffer
failure was completely silent - it now says so. And the build tag moves
to train-dispatch-v2; it had not moved since ce52654, which is why the
running binary could not be identified from its own log.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
It fired only on 4096-item boundaries once an era had already run 60s. Those
boundaries are all crossed in the first few chunks of pass 1, so an era that
became slow AFTER them printed nothing at all - which is precisely what
happened: 20 minutes, four pegged cores, zero heartbeats. I read that silence
as "the era loop is never reached" and went looking for a wedge above it. The
silence may simply have meant "past the last boundary".
A diagnostic whose trigger can be outrun by the condition it watches for is
worse than no diagnostic, because it produces confident wrong conclusions.
Now time-gated: checked every 256 items (the mask only keeps GetTickCount off
the hot path), prints when the era has run >60s and >30s since the last line,
up to 12 per era. Progress/phase for the panel is still published on every
call, before any gate.
Both build variants compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
TWO things, one incident.
1) THE BUG I SHIPPED IN 0c85c54. m_tuneStartTrainBar is declared, initialised
to 0, and NEVER ASSIGNED - the assignment existed before the God-class split
and the split dropped it, leaving a dead member. Harmless while nothing read
it; a real defect the moment 0c85c54 made StartLabelCachePrebuild() reset
dtStudied from it. Train() then computed the window as
max(StartTrainBar, floor) while the prebuild computed max(0, floor), where
StartTrainBar is the non-zero datetime OnChartEventHandler passes through from
the "New Bar" event. The two therefore disagreed about `bars`, so
EnsureBarCachesCapacity() saw a changed size at era start, wiped the caches,
and re-armed a full 38k-bar prebuild - instead of training. Restored the
assignment so both sides evaluate the identical expression.
2) THE REASON IT TOOK ALL NIGHT TO FIND. Train() is a state machine with six
early-return branches above the era loop and every one of them is silent. Four
charts burned a core each for 15 minutes with an empty journal: the pass
heartbeats (694b756) proved the era loop was never reached, no prebuild
completion line appeared either, and nothing external can see inside a single
MQL5 thread - per-thread CPU says "busy", file writes say nothing, and the VPS
has no debugger. That is an undiagnosable state, and it is the thing to fix,
not just the bug of the day.
ReportTrainStall() now names the branch Train() is taking whenever no era has
completed for 3 minutes, at most once a minute per signal, with the state that
decides the branch: run/prebuild/simOos/resume flags, era, dtStudied, and -
for the cache-invalidation branch specifically - BOTH bar counts, since two
sizings disagreeing is exactly what re-arms the prebuild forever. Silent on a
healthy run: an era completing resets the clock.
Both build variants compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The simple panel derived its percentage from pass 2's counters:
(m_isTrainCursor+1) / max(m_isTrainQueueCount,1). During pass 1 those are 0
and 0, so the expression is (0+1)/max(0,1) = 100%. An era spends its first
pass scanning ~38k bars - minutes of work - and the panel reported that phase
as finished the entire time. Observed by the user as "started learning at 100%
of their era and are stuck there", and it actively misled the diagnosis: the
one number on screen said the opposite of what was happening.
The UI cannot fix this on its own - it can see pass 2's counters but has no
way to know which pass owns them. So each pass now PUBLISHES its own progress
and a short phase name through TrainHeartbeat (which every pass already calls
per item), and the panel just displays them: "learning (era 45, scan 34%)".
Published before the heartbeat's 4096-item journal gate, so the panel updates
continuously while the journal stays quiet.
Both build variants compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The 23:42 restart left all four charts grinding ~25x slower than the 18:01
baseline (era lines in 86 seconds there; 20+ minutes of nothing here), and
NOTHING could say why from outside: pass 1 logs nothing, its status paint sat
inside the !wouldQueue branch so the IS sweep - 80% of the pass, processed
FIRST - painted nothing either, the VPS has no debugger for a thread stack,
and the hourly new-bar cache invalidation cancels and restarts an unfinished
era, so a slow era can stay invisible FOREVER. Externals gave: four chart
threads at ~95% pure user-mode compute, DLL pool idle, no file writes. That
narrows it to "MQL5-side per-item work in the era passes" and no further.
So training now explains itself:
- TrainHeartbeat: one line per 4096 processed items, only after an era has
already run 60s, at most 6 lines per era - a healthy era stays exactly as
quiet as before. Reports position and the cumulative split: feature-window
builds vs net forward/backprop vs everything else. Hooked into all three
passes.
- The era summary line gains "| ERA TOOK Ns (feature windows X, net fwd/back
Y, other Z)" whenever an era exceeded 120s.
- Pass 1 paints its progress for QUEUED bars too, not just the OOS slice, so
the panel shows "learning (era N)" instead of sitting on the idle writer's
"Getting ready..." for the entire IS sweep. The label is throttled
internally; painting per bar costs nothing.
Both build variants compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Terminal restart, 22:25: all four resumed models sat on empty windows with
enum 2:6 barriers. Three interlocking causes, all visible in one log excerpt:
1) THE PRE-SCAN WINDOW WAS SIZED BY THE SAVED WATERMARK. A resumed model's
dtStudied sits at its last studied bar, so Bars(dtStudied, now) ~ 0 and the
resumed-model MI pre-scan built a zero-bar "complete" label cache - logged as
"Buy: 0 | Sell: 0 | Neutral: 0". Train()'s own era start RESETS dtStudied to
the training-window rule before computing its window; the pre-scan did not.
The rule is now factored into TrainWindowStart() and both use it. The scan
also refuses to arm before SERIES_SYNCHRONIZED (it ran in the same second as
OnInit), and deployed models keep their watermark - for them it gates
inference recency, not a training window.
2) THE HORIZON LATCHED ON AN INDICATOR WARM-UP. ComputeBarrierHorizonBars ran
against a ZigZag with 0 calculated legs, fell back, and EnsureBarrierHorizon
latched fallback(32) x slMult x tpMult = 384 for the process lifetime. A
leg-starved horizon is now PROVISIONAL: re-resolved on the next rebuild, the
label cache wiped if it moved (labels from two horizons answer different
questions), and the geometry deriver refuses to run from it - a pair derived
over a warm-up window would get PINNED.
3) THE DERIVED GEOMETRY WAS NEVER PERSISTED. The .cfg is written at model
creation and at weights-reset - both BEFORE era 0 derives - so the measured
pair lived only in memory: every restart read back zeros, adopted nothing,
fell back to the enum barriers, and the era-0-only gate meant a resumed model
could NEVER re-derive. A full day of training on 3.33/1.62 resumed as 2:6.
Now: the settled pair is pinned to the .cfg the moment derivation completes
(one-shot, atomic write), and the derive gate accepts any model with no
pinned pair, not just era 0 - mid-run stability is carried by
m_geometryDerived itself, which never allows a second derivation.
Both build variants compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Measured on HYBRID, era 29 of the first win-scored run: the model collapsed
to always-Buy and was crowned "new best selection score 67.1%". Under
win-based scoring that is not a coincidence - the always-call-the-drift-side
model IS the chance reference, so it scores exactly chance (P(winLong) ~ 67%
on SP500), while every honest two-sided era scores 63-66% because shorts win
less often against the drift. Raw score ranking therefore actively prefers
the degenerate model, every regression restores back to it, and live NMS
collapses its near-constant signal to ~25 trades per era - observed as
"hybrid barely trades".
bothSidesLive already blocked one-sided eras from DEPLOYING (tradeableOK,
371f8aa), but among not-yet-deployable eras the score alone ranked - the same
early phase the coverage credit was added for, failing the same way through a
different door.
The ranking key is now three lexicographic tiers: deployable > two-sided >
score. A one-sided era cannot displace a two-sided best regardless of score -
by construction its score is a property of the data's drift, not the model -
and a two-sided era displaces a one-sided best no matter how much lower it
scores. m_bestBothSidesLive is snapshotted with the checkpoint and reset with
the rest of the best-tracking state.
Both build variants compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Three changes, one theme: the trade placed, the trade graded, and the trade
computed are now the same trade.
1) GEOMETRY WIRE (correctness, the ranked #1 open issue). The measured barrier
pair reached the LABELS only - OpenParams still placed orders at the enum
geometry (2*ATR/6*ATR), so the deploy gate certified "reaches 1.62*ATR before
3.33*ATR above break-even" about trades the EA never placed. Published via
g_DerivedSlAtrMult/g_DerivedTpAtrMult (ConfidenceBridge, same same-tick
contract as the confidence globals, because OpenParams runs on the root signal
which has no pointer to the AI filter). Two writers: DeriveBarrierGeometry at
era 0, and the .cfg adoption a deployed model takes. Overrides both legs and
both Intelligent modes - the certificate is exact or it is nothing. TP is
ATR-anchored like the label, NOT risk-relative, so a floor-widened stop cannot
reshape the certified target.
2) BATCH NORM RUNS DEVICE-SIDE ON OPENCL. Four kernels in Network.cl -
forward, hidden gradient, gamma/beta accumulate, gamma/beta apply - each a
line-for-line transcription of the host implementation (NormalizeHost /
HiddenGradHost / StepGammaBeta) including every NaN guard, clamp, and the
exact moment-write ordering. The host copies remain the runtime for the DLL
and pure-MQL5 tiers and the reference the kernels must match.
Because this box has no OpenCL platform, the safety story is layered:
- shim validation: kernels compiled as C and driven against a fp64 host
transcription over NaN-poisoned stats, NaN gamma, over-clamp inputs, the
frozen path, both optimizers, 3 batches - ALL PASS, worst normalized diff
0.132 vs tolerance 1.0
- in-situ self-check: each kernel is compared against its host twin ON FIRST
USE on the real device (SelfCheckBn*), covering what the shim cannot - arg
indices and buffer bindings. Any disagreement resyncs from the good copy,
latches all BN kernels off process-wide, and training continues host-side.
A transcription bug costs a warning and some speed, never a poisoned .nnw.
- sync discipline: BatchOptions is now a CBufferDouble with explicit
authority tracking (m_bnDeviceAuthoritative). Checkpoints/saves pull
read-only; restores/loads/resets push; a mid-batch handover drains the
device gamma/beta accumulator into the host arrays so no sample is lost.
3) SMALL FIXES. Apply-kernel build failure now latches the dispatch path at
init (one warning instead of warning + failed Execute). Build tag bumped to
win-scoring-gpu-v1 - first tag change since expectancy-stop-v1 despite five
binary-changing commits.
Both build variants compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The gate rests on an invariant stated at ExpertSignalAIBase.mqh:199 - under a
driftless walk P(touch +k before -m) is m/(m+k), and break-even for a k:m trade
is ALSO m/(m+k), so "beats chance" and "is profitable" are the same test.
That invariant needs reward >= risk, and the measured geometry no longer
satisfies it. With target 1.62*ATR and stop 3.33*ATR, break-even is 67.3%, but
both-won bars were stripped out of Buy and Sell so the label base rate read
37.5%. chancePrecPct is max(BuyTotal,SellTotal)/bars, so the gate was clearing
models nearly 30pp short of break-even: 42% "directional precision" is +4 sigma
against 37.5% and loses money on every single trade. Live since 217b9bc.
Root cause is that label agreement stopped being the same question as trade
profitability. Buy implies winLong, but the converse fails on every both-won
bar, and the label can only name one of two directions that both pay.
So stop asking the model whether it matched a label and start asking whether
its trade paid:
- cache winLong/winShort per bar beside the label, under the same validity
flag; published from the barrier walk before the collapse to 3 classes
- dirPrecPct now counts wins on the side actually called
- chancePrecPct is max(P(winLong), P(winShort)), MEASURED - the textbook
m/(m+k) would credit SP500's drift to the model
- the NMS "what would I have made" pair, the live-fired precision, and the
IS/OOS cumulative win rates all move to the same test. IS and OOS are read
side by side as the overfitting signal, so measuring one in wins and the
other in agreement would put a fixed gap between them that has nothing to do
with generalization
- the confidence threshold is FITTED on wins too, so the operating point
maximises what the gate grades
- per-class label-agreement precision is still computed and logged; it is the
right diagnostic for class separation, just not for a deploy decision
- era line renamed dir-precision -> win-rate, chance -> chance=break-even
Both build variants compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Removing the min-reward:risk raise let the MEASURED geometry come back with
the target NEARER than the stop (SP500 H1: target 1.62*ATR at q50 of
favourable, stop 3.33*ATR at q75 of adverse). That reopened a branch the
code called unreachable: price can reach +target and -target inside one
horizon, winning in BOTH directions, and those bars fell through to Neutral.
Neutral has only three producers, both-lost is unreachable (you cannot touch
-3.33 without crossing -1.62 first, which wins the short), and timeouts logged
at 1.0% of Neutral - so ~27% of ALL bars were being handed to the model as the
abstain class when a trade either way would have collected its target. The
cleanest positives in the sample, labelled "do not trade", while the fitted
confidence threshold was being asked to find selectivity in what was left.
Resolved by FIRST TOUCH: the target reached earlier is the trade that would
have closed first. Same forward window, no extra lookahead. Same-bar ties stay
Neutral - OHLC cannot order two touches, and unlike an intrabar stop tie there
is no pessimistic side to fall to, so a guess would inject a coin-flip
direction into the target.
Also:
- count both-won and its same-bar tie subset in the prebuild line, so the
share is measured rather than inferred from arithmetic on a log line
- scope the timeout counter to IS, matching the tally it is reported as a
percentage OF; it was incremented over the whole scan and divided by an
in-sample denominator
- clear m_lastBarrierTimedOut at the top of the walk with the excursions, not
at the bottom - the two early returns published the previous bar's verdict
- mark the pass-1 label line PROVISIONAL. It prints the enum fallback because
geometry can only be derived from excursions that do not exist yet, and it
reads exactly like a config change that failed to take effect
FORCES RETRAIN. Both build variants compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The training loss and the selection metric wanted different things and only
the second one knew it. Logit-adjusted cross-entropy has no term for "how
often should I trade", so the head calls a direction on 87-91% of bars. The
selection metric is precision x coverage credit, saturating at the coverage
floor - above the floor extra calls earn NOTHING and only precision counts.
So selection wanted few good calls, the loss produced many mediocre ones, and
all selection could do was pick the least-bad era out of what it was handed.
Nothing pushed the model toward selectivity.
This gives the decision RULE the policy instead of distorting the loss (which
is estimating class probabilities correctly, and a probability estimate should
not be bent to encode a trading policy - Elkan 2001: estimate, then choose the
operating point separately). AdjustedSignalFromSoftmax now abstains unless the
winning direction's softmax margin over its best rival clears a fitted
threshold. Margin, not the winning probability: the latter moves with overall
calibration rather than with how close the decision actually was.
Fitted on IS, applied to OOS and live. Pass 2 already forward-passes every IS
sample, so the margin histogram is harvested there for free (primary
occurrences only, so the oversampled replay queue cannot skew the operating
point); the fit runs at the end of pass 2, BEFORE pass 3, so the deploy gate
grades the thresholded model on bars the threshold never saw. Fitting on
pass 3's own predictions would be choosing the operating point on the data
being graded - the best-of-N error corrected in five other places here.
Objective: maximise IS directional precision subject to still clearing the
SAME coverage floor the deploy gate uses (base rate x 0.25, re-derived
locally so the two cannot drift apart). Swept top-down in one pass; ties go
to the LOWER threshold, since equal precision for less coverage is strictly
worse. Under DIR_CONF_MIN_FIT_CALLS (200) it runs unthresholded rather than
on a guess.
The threshold is part of the MODEL, not the run: captured with
Net.CaptureWeights(), restored with the weights at both restore sites, and
appended to the .cfg under the same length-guard convention so a deployed
model reloads at the operating point its gate actually cleared. A pre-2026-08-09
.cfg reads 0.0, which is exactly the behaviour it was trained under.
Per-era line now prints "@margin>=X.XX" next to coverage, so a coverage drop
can be attributed to the operating point rather than guessed at.
Both build variants compile 0 errors / 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The barrier geometry is derived from the instrument's own excursion
distribution (stop at q75 of adverse travel, target at q50 of favourable),
and then a 1:2 floor was applied on top, raising the target to twice whatever
the stop happened to be. On SP500 H1 that pushed the target to 6.66*ATR,
reached on 3.3% of bars inside the horizon - so the label became "almost
never a win" and every topology was trained to predict an event that
essentially does not occur. A measured target has to stay measured.
The ratio never bought what it was believed to buy. A reward:risk floor does
not create expectancy; it trades hit rate against payoff at a break-even the
geometry already fixes - which this project has separately MEASURED (payoff
0.92 -> 5.72 with expectancy flat). What it did buy was two outages: four
consecutive Market validation rejections for "no trading operations" when it
rejected 100% of setups, and the label corruption above.
Removed:
- the input and the RISK_REWARD_RATIO enum (deleted, not left dangling - a
live enum with no input behind it is the shape of the stale-.set incident
that trained ~250 eras on the wrong target)
- the forced target raise in the label geometry
- the rrOK eligibility gate in the barrier-geometry scan, so every unclamped
pairing now competes on the measurement alone. Clamping stays disqualifying
for its own unrelated reason.
- the reward < minRR*risk veto in OpenParams
Kept: g_TradeRewardRiskRatio still computed and still bridged to Kelly sizing
in MoneyIntelligent - the ratio as a SIZING input was always the sound use.
Risk stays bounded where it actually is - account risk % and CRiskBudget.
The low-reachability warning survives but is re-aimed: with nothing inflating
the target, a target the market rarely reaches can only mean the horizon is
truncating the excursions the geometry is derived from.
Both build variants compile 0 errors / 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Root cause of the B=32 regression, and it predates F4 entirely. Every Adam
kernel stored v already square-rooted and then fed that stored value back in
as if it were the variance:
v_new = sqrt(b2 * v_old + (1 - b2) * g^2)
That recursion has a fixed point at v ~= b2 = 0.999 for ANY gradient below
unit scale, so the denominator stops tracking the gradient and Adam degrades
into plain SGD with lr = lt. Measured against the shipped WarriorCPU.dll
(batch_accum_check.cpp, TestOptimizerScaleInvariance), 4000 steps of a
constant gradient: 3285x less displacement at |g|=1e-5 than at |g|=1, where
a scale-invariant optimizer gives the same distance for both. After the fix
all six magnitudes read 1.199 and v tracks |g| exactly.
It hit conv/LSTM specifically because they sit behind a batch-norm with
running variance ~2.6e+05, so their gradients arrive divided by ~500 - deep
in the degraded regime - while the dense stack near the loss stayed in the
working one. In situ on SP500 H1: lstm1 dW/W 2.62/10.0/7.14% -> 0.024/0.022/
0.003%, conv1 decaying to 0.000% by era 30. NeuronBatchNorm.mqh already
squared v back for gamma/beta and its comment named the kernels as wrong,
which is exactly why gamma/beta kept training while the stages behind froze.
Persisted .nnw needs no migration - v keeps its std-dev meaning.
Also, the two ways F4 exposed it, both mine:
- No LR compensation for B fewer steps per era. sqrt(B) for adaptive methods
(Krizhevsky 2014; Granziol et al. 2022), applied once in
InitialEtaForOptimizer(). Linear scaling (Goyal et al. 2017) is for SGD.
- Plateau patience denominated in eras, so raising B made the ladder 32x more
impatient in its only unit. PAI converged at era 41 on ~49k updates where
the same config had been finding new bests at era 1028.
TrainPlateauPatienceEras() stretches it by the same sqrt(B).
TRAIN_BATCH_SIZE 32 -> 8 so the patience stretch stays affordable (8 -> 23
eras per stage, not 8 -> 45). Both helpers are identities at B=1.
Deploy gate: DEPLOY_MIN_SIDE_RECALL_PCT (10%) folded into tradeableOK. The
perceptron reported Sell:0% recall in all 41 eras, cleared the floor on Buy
alone at 36.6% vs 34% chance, deployed, and sprayed buy arrows. Folded into
the ranking key rather than checked at deploy time so a one-sided era cannot
become best-so-far in the first place.
Deinit: the arrow purge now runs BEFORE ExtPanel.Destroy(), an unbounded
CAppDialog teardown that sat ahead of it - the same ordering inversion the
rule there exists to prevent. CONV was force-terminated 4.8 s into OnDeinit
(vs ~1.1 s for the three that finished) having reached none of its cleanup,
so its arrows stayed on the chart. Steps are now timed in the log.
PurgeChart's verification rescan filtered on OBJ_ARROW, the same blind spot
as the bulk delete, so "persisted 10 ... cleared 0" passed silently. It now
walks every object type and reports the object counts when both are zero.
Both build variants compile 0 errors / 0 warnings; both DLLs rebuilt.
FORCES A RETRAIN (already forced by N1) and both DLLs must ship with the .ex5.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Completes the 2026-08-09 training audit. FORCES A RETRAIN of every
Wyckoff-enabled config (N1 re-keys the fingerprint), and BOTH DLLs must be
redeployed alongside the .ex5 - they carry new exports.
F4 - mini-batch accumulation, TRAIN_BATCH_SIZE=32. Training was pure online
SGD (one weight update per bar), which is the mechanical source of the
era-to-era whipsaw every downstream guard was built to cope with. The O(n^2)
outer product is native - AccumulateWeightGrad / AccumulateWeightGradConv /
AccumulateBufferInto in Network.cl, WarriorCPU and WarriorDML - while the
optimizer step is host-side MQL5 shared by all tiers (ApplyAccumToBlock), so
there is one Adam/SGD implementation instead of four that can drift.
- the LSTM needs no outer-product kernel (WeightsGradient already holds the
sample's full dW) but could NOT simply be left un-zeroed between samples:
CPU_LSTMSeqBackward/DML_LSTMSeqBackward memset it on entry. Hence a
separate accumulator plus an elementwise add.
- batch-norm gamma/beta accumulate in host arrays, not new BatchOptions
slots - BN_OPT_STRIDE is baked into every persisted .nnw.
- scoped to pass 2; online learning keeps immediate updates. Every save /
checkpoint / scoring boundary flushes, scaling by the real sample count.
- degrades to per-sample updates (one log line) on a tier that cannot
accumulate, so old devices and DLL-free builds are unaffected.
- verified offline: DirectML/batch_accum_check.cpp drives the real exports
against an independent reference; at B=1 the accumulator matches the
shipped unbatched kernel's own gradient to 1.1e-16. Math only - the
in-situ check remains the per-layer dW/W report on a real era.
F6 - ComputeFirstLayerWidth budgeted against the RAW input width even where a
conv/LSTM front end had already reduced it, so an LSTM's dense stack was
charged for 1,280 inputs when it receives 64. Confirmed from the deployed
.cfg files: CONV, LSTM and HYBRID were all pinned at the 16-unit floor. Now
budgeted against the front-end output and capped at it (never fan out), with
the derivation reordered so both stages settle first.
N1 - EventCode/EventPhase/StructuralPhase are signed categoricals packing
direction and Wyckoff stage into one scalar across a sign discontinuity. Split
into direction + [0,1] magnitude, the same convention the base OHLC block uses.
Information-preserving; 13 readings now occupy 16 inputs.
Compiled clean (0 errors, 0 warnings); both DLLs rebuilt.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Four of the six findings from research/training_pipeline_audit_2026-08-09.md
(F4 mini-batching and F6 feature re-encode deliberately deferred - see the
report's implementation-status section for why):
- F1: pass-2 Fisher-Yates (and AutoTune's MI block shuffle) used MathRand()%,
which is 15-bit - provably non-uniform on every full-history era over 32,768
queued samples. New 30-bit ShuffleRandomIndex().
- F2: plateau warm restarts were a no-op whenever eta already sat at its
ceiling (the normal state of a non-regressing plateau) - the ladder was just
a 24-era countdown. Restarts now overshoot to 5x the ceiling
(PLATEAU_RESTART_BOOST) and anneal geometrically back over the patience
window, SGDR-style; ETA_MIN widened 1e-4 -> 1e-5 so the decay schedule has
real range.
- F3: checkpoint restores put weights back but kept the rejected trajectory's
Adam moments, so the optimizer immediately pushed back toward the rolled-back
state (the restore->regress->restore oscillation). CNet::ResetOptimizerState()
zeroes moments/momentum/step counters (weights, BN statistics, gamma/beta
untouched) on every mid-run restore, every boosted restart, and the
deploy-time restore that online learning continues from.
- F5: batch-norm running statistics now freeze for the pass-3 OOS scoring walk,
so the selection metric the checkpoint ranking and deploy gate read is a pure
function of the checkpoint instead of partly measuring BN drift. Defensive
unfreeze in FinalizeTrainRun covers stop-mid-pass; live/online adaptation and
the OOS continual-learning simulation stay adaptive by design.
Compiled clean (0 errors, 0 warnings) via the staged-tree recipe.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
NmsLiveAccept() appeared in exactly one place: wrapped around DrawObject().
It never touched dPrevSignal, and dPrevSignal is what LongCondition() /
ShortCondition() / SignedAIConfidence() read. So a declustered bar lost its
arrow and still opened a position.
Measured on SP500 H1 2026-08-09: CONV called a direction on 64% of bars,
so the ~500 bars visible on screen held ~320 decisions - and ~40 arrows
were drawn. Roughly one arrow per eight positions the EA would take.
And the survivors are not a random eighth. Rule 2 of the declustering
keeps the HIGHER-CONFIDENCE side of a cluster, so the visible set is
systematically the best member of each run. A chart showing the best of
every eight decisions and hiding the rest reads far better than the model
is - the same best-of-N selection error already corrected in the geometry
scan, the indicator tuner, the lag profile and the deploy gate, this time
on the display layer, where it is most likely to mislead the person
deciding whether to trade.
Fixed by neutralising dPrevSignal when NMS rejects, rather than adding a
"may trade" flag consulted at each read site: that leaves exactly ONE
definition of what the model decided this bar, so the arrow, the panel's
"Current signal", the confidence feeding sizing/SL/TP/trailing, the
refresh tally and the order itself cannot drift apart again.
Also reports the consequence instead of hiding it. Every OOS counter on
the era line still scores every directional call - a population ~8x larger
than what now trades - so the line carries a second figure:
| TRADED (declustered) NN% on N calls (edge +Npp)
replaying the identical rule over pass 3 (which walks OOS bars oldest to
newest, the same order the live sweep sees). Its cursors are separate
members from the live ones so a training pass can never disturb the live
chart's declustering.
Deliberately NOT switched into selectionScore yet. Declustering cuts
coverage from ~64% of bars to ~8%, well under
MIN_COVERAGE_FRACTION_OF_BASE_RATE, which would make every checkpoint
undeployable overnight - the minRR collision and the recall-floor catch-22
twice over. The floor gets re-derived from these measurements first.
Compiles clean: 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
AutoTuneIndicators now defaults to FALSE, and the 33 AD/Wyckoff parameters
it used to search are now inputs.
WHY THE DEFAULT FLIPPED - not because the search is broken. It is correct,
and its own Sidak gate is what proves it: 324 candidates per model on
SP500 H1, "no improvement" on all four topologies (0.00236 -> 0.00236 on
the AD configs, 0.00370 -> 0.00370 on PAI), winner rejected at p=1.0000.
It cannot do better here by construction - it ranks candidates by MARGINAL
MI, and the headline MI is 0.00370 nats against a shuffled null of
0.00379 +/- 0.00061 (p=0.4975), so every candidate is a noise draw and the
maximum over N of them is noise too. The cost is 45-56 min per model in
one synchronous call with no yield, and it was the amplifier for the
handle leak fixed in 33f106d. The EA's own report says it plainest: "no
per-feature indicator retuning will help."
THE INPUT STAYS. TuneIndicatorsByFilter is one function of twelve in
AIBase/AutoTune.mqh; the other eleven are the MI/lag/excursion/geometry
diagnostics that produced every verdict this project relies on, and they
run regardless of this flag. Removing the input invites removing the file.
WHY THE INPUTS WERE NEEDED. All 33 were literals in CADIndicatorTuner's
constructor with no input of any kind, while MA/RSI/MACD/Ichimoku have had
their periods exposed from the start. On the AD configs those indicators
contribute 28 of 64 features per bar. Survivable while the tuner searched
them; indefensible with it off, where they would freeze at values nobody
chose.
CONSOLIDATED 33 -> 18. volClimax/volHigh/rangeClimax/rangeSignificant/
stVolRatio/atr were duplicated verbatim across CumulativeDelta, Wyckoff
Events, Failed Structure and Bar Inversion - the same constants restated
3-4 times. One concept, one input. They are SEEDS: each fans out to the
indicator's own struct field, so with the tuner on it retains full
per-indicator freedom to move them apart. Same contract as PeriodMA.
NO RETRAIN. Every default is byte-identical to the literal it replaces,
and the fingerprint's new ADP token is appended ONLY on deviation
(MACD/Ichimoku/BN/XA convention), gated on the AD features being enabled.
At defaults the token is absent, so every model on disk keeps its filename
and stays loadable. Without that guard, merely EXPOSING these parameters
would have re-keyed every config and forced a from-scratch retrain of all
four topologies for a change that alters no number anywhere.
All-or-nothing rather than per-input, so the token can never encode a
partial picture of what the features were built from.
Compiles clean: 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
EDGE_MIN_SIGMAS is a PER-ERA test and the deployed model is the MAXIMUM
over every era a run ranks. A 2-sigma one-sided test passes on noise with
probability 0.0228 per era, so over N eras the chance at least one clears
it is 1-(1-0.0228)^N: 34% by era 18, 80% by era 70, 93% by era 112. The
gate was near-certain to open on a long run whatever the data held.
It did. HYBRID deployed 2026-08-08 at dir-precision 35.5% vs 34% chance -
+1.5pp, best of 112 eras whose per-era values wandered 30%..35.5%. At the
call counts these runs produce that is p_family 0.92..0.9999.
Every OTHER best-of-N decision here already carries this correction, and
every one REJECTS on this data: the barrier-geometry winner (null of the
maximum over 6, p=0.3902), the indicator tuner (Sidak, p=1.0000), the MI
lag profile (null of the maximum over 21 lags). The one decision that
ships a model to a live account had none.
BestCheckpointSurvivesSelection() re-tests the checkpoint that is about to
deploy:
z = (precision - chance)/SE, SE = sqrt(p0(1-p0)/n)
p_single = P(Z >= z)
p_family = 1 - (1-p_single)^N
against DEPLOY_FAMILY_WISE_ALPHA. It uses the checkpoint's OWN
snapshotted precision/chance/call-count, not the latest era's, because
the model that ships is the one that has to clear the bar.
N counts CANDIDATE eras (coverage measurable, at least one directional
call) - an era that called nothing directional could never have become
the best, so counting it would make the gate stricter than the search
that actually happened.
Conservative on purpose: consecutive eras share OOS bars and differ by
one gradient step, so they are nowhere near N independent draws and the
true family-wise error is below this bound. This gate decides what trades
real money and the house posture is reject-unless-demonstrated.
Effect at 2900 directional calls / N=112: required edge goes 1.76pp ->
2.92pp. A real edge clears it; +1.5pp does not.
Applied to BOTH automatic paths - the plateau ladder's stage-3 deploy and
the m_trainingComplete assignment - which must stay identical or the flag
persisted into the .nnw disagrees with the decision to stop, and a reload
runs inference on a model the ladder refused.
NOT applied to the two operator paths (era-cap deploy, panel Deploy
button). Those stay the operator's call; ReportSelectionGateVerdict()
logs the verdict beside them so an authorised deploy can never later be
misread as a validated one.
NormalUpperTail() is A&S 26.2.17 (|err| < 7.5e-8), self-contained rather
than pulling in Math\Stat. Verified against reference values to 6dp:
Q(1.645)=0.049985, Q(1.96)=0.024998, Q(3.0)=0.001350. Its locals are
ntB1..ntB5 because AI\Network.mqh line 79 does "#define b1 AdamBeta1".
Compiles clean: 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
