Evidence (MQL5\Logs, SP500 H1, 2026-07-29):
Perceptron era 61 Buy 32% Sell 27% Neut 94% bal 51%
LSTM era 160 Buy 16% Sell 11% Neut 98% bal 42% (peaked 49% @ era 44)
Hybrid era 179 Buy 5% Sell 2% Neut 99% bal 35% (peaked 41%)
CONV era 228 Buy 2% Sell 4% Neut 99% bal 35% (peaked 40% @ era 122)
Every model peaks early then decays monotonically toward Neutral, and nothing
stops it: the restore-best-weights + decay-eta handler is gated on
m_bestPassedRecall, which stays false forever when no checkpoint ever clears the
per-class floor. CONV ran 228 eras with eta pinned at its 0.000300 start. The
plateau ladder cannot end such a run either (stage 3 refuses to deploy without a
recall pass, so it resets ~27 times), making it a 1000-era one-way trip.
The gate's own justification had expired. It was written when the pre-pass
tiebreak was blended-accuracy-only, where "best" really did mean "called Neutral
most confidently". The balanced-selection change replaced that with
`balancedOosEra > m_bestBalancedOos` plus an isFullyCollapsedEra exclusion, so a
Neutral-only era now scores ~33% - the FLOOR of the balanced metric - and cannot
anchor the checkpoint at all. Pre-pass "best" now means "most class-balanced so
far", which is worth defending; and isWorseEra is itself a balanced-accuracy
regression, so it cannot fire merely for trading Neutral calls for Buy/Sell.
The original concern still holds while the best-so-far IS near-collapse, so the
escape is margin-guarded: defend the checkpoint only once balanced accuracy sits
more than BALANCED_WORTH_DEFENDING_MARGIN_PCT (5pp) above the one-class floor of
100/3. Against the run above that engages for all three stuck topologies
(42.3/41.3/50.0 vs a 38.3 threshold) while a genuinely collapsed run still
explores freely.
Two inputs restored to the regime that actually produced a deploy:
- MinRecall 60 -> 40. The one successful auto-deploy in the logs (Hybrid, 28th
00:50, best balanced 66.0%) ran against a 40% floor. 60 has never been shown
reachable here - a floor above what the config can reach is the same "target
set too high" failure the surrounding comment already warns about.
- OversampleParity 60 -> 90. 60 overcorrected. Runs now START Neutral-dominant
(Buy 0-11% recall at era 1) and call Buy/Sell on 0-4% of bars against a ~6%
true base rate - under-calling, with no headroom to converge down from. The
deploying run began at Buy 90% / Sell 36%, 24% of bars called, and settled into
the floor from above. Raw over-calling is the intended starting condition; live
calls are base-rate-calibrated by AILogitPriorStrength, which is why the input's
own note says to judge over-calling by live-fired precision, not raw counts.
Compiles 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
ExpertSignalAIBase.mqh was 8216 lines: the class declaration followed by 87
method bodies covering training, labelling, feature extraction, persistence,
chart drawing, online learning, the GA auto-tuner and inference, all in one
file. Train() alone is 1492 lines; a change to arrow drawing meant scrolling
past the era loop.
Moved the bodies into Expert\AIBase\, included at the bottom of the original
after the class declaration:
Training.mqh 1607 era loop, plateau ladder, checkpoint select, deploy
Features.mqh 1093 indicator creation + per-bar input feature vector
ChartUI.mqh 634 arrows, arrow persistence, status panel, cleanup
Persistence.mqh 492 .stats/.cfg sidecars, CPU-inference validation, copy
OnlineLearning.mqh 461 live continual learning, EMA shadow, OOS simulator
Labels.mqh 309 ZigZag pivot labels, async label-cache prebuild
AutoTune.mqh 275 genetic tuner (population, crossover, halving)
Inference.mqh 235 softmax, prior calibration, class priors
ExpertSignalAIBase.mqh 8216 -> 3131 (declaration + topology build only)
This is a pure relocation - verified mechanically, not by eye: HEAD's file
reconstructed from the eight partials plus the surviving remainder is
byte-identical to HEAD, span for span (scratchpad verify_split.py). No
declaration moved, no signature changed, no code rewritten, so behaviour is
unchanged by construction.
Compiles 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
