mql5/Experts/Advisors/DualEA/Include/CNewsImpactAnalyzer.mqh

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//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| CNewsImpactAnalyzer.mqh - Dynamic News-Based Threshold Adjustment |
//| Analyzes news impact in real-time and adjusts trading thresholds |
//| dynamically based on market conditions and news sentiment |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
#ifndef CNEWSIMPACTANALYZER_MQH
#define CNEWSIMPACTANALYZER_MQH
#include "CEconomicCalendar.mqh"
#include "CErrorRecovery.mqh"
// News impact state
enum ENUM_NEWS_STATE
{
NEWS_STATE_QUIET = 0, // No significant news
NEWS_STATE_WARNING = 1, // News approaching
NEWS_STATE_ACTIVE = 2, // News happening now
NEWS_STATE_AFTERMATH = 3 // Post-news volatility
};
// Threshold adjustment direction
enum ENUM_THRESHOLD_ADJUSTMENT
{
THRESHOLD_NORMAL = 0, // No adjustment
THRESHOLD_CONSERVATIVE = 1, // Increase thresholds (harder to trade)
THRESHOLD_AGGRESSIVE = 2, // Decrease thresholds (easier to trade)
THRESHOLD_BLOCK = 3 // Block trading completely
};
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Threshold Adjustment Result |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
struct SThresholdAdjustment
{
ENUM_THRESHOLD_ADJUSTMENT direction;
double confidence_multiplier;
double risk_multiplier;
double position_size_multiplier;
int sl_pips_adjustment;
int tp_pips_adjustment;
string reason;
datetime effective_until;
bool should_trade;
SThresholdAdjustment()
{
direction = THRESHOLD_NORMAL;
confidence_multiplier = 1.0;
risk_multiplier = 1.0;
position_size_multiplier = 1.0;
sl_pips_adjustment = 0;
tp_pips_adjustment = 0;
reason = "";
effective_until = 0;
should_trade = true;
}
};
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Market Response Metrics |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
struct SMarketResponse
{
double price_change_pct;
double volatility_spike;
double spread_widening;
int volume_surge;
bool is_trending;
int trend_direction;
datetime measurement_time;
SMarketResponse()
{
price_change_pct = 0.0;
volatility_spike = 0.0;
spread_widening = 0.0;
volume_surge = 0;
is_trending = false;
trend_direction = 0;
measurement_time = 0;
}
};
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| News Impact History Entry |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
struct SNewsImpactHistory
{
long event_id;
string event_name;
datetime event_time;
int importance;
double actual_value;
double forecast_value;
double surprise_magnitude;
SMarketResponse market_response;
bool profitable_to_trade;
double ml_confidence_score;
SNewsImpactHistory()
{
event_id = 0;
event_name = "";
event_time = 0;
importance = 0;
actual_value = 0.0;
forecast_value = 0.0;
surprise_magnitude = 0.0;
profitable_to_trade = false;
ml_confidence_score = 0.0;
}
};
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| News Impact Analyzer |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
class CNewsImpactAnalyzer
{
private:
static CNewsImpactAnalyzer* s_instance;
// Components
CEconomicCalendar* m_calendar;
CErrorRecovery* m_error_recovery;
// State tracking
ENUM_NEWS_STATE m_current_state;
datetime m_state_since;
SThresholdAdjustment m_current_adjustment;
// History for ML
SNewsImpactHistory m_impact_history[];
int m_history_count;
int m_max_history;
// Real-time metrics
double m_baseline_volatility;
double m_baseline_spread;
datetime m_baseline_measured;
int m_baseline_lookback_bars;
// Configuration
bool m_use_ml_predictions;
bool m_export_for_training;
string m_export_filename;
int m_volatility_measurement_bars;
double m_spread_widening_threshold;
double m_volatility_spike_threshold;
// Telemetry
int m_analysis_count;
int m_trade_blocked_count;
int m_threshold_adjusted_count;
public:
CNewsImpactAnalyzer()
{
m_calendar = CEconomicCalendar::Instance();
m_error_recovery = CErrorRecovery::Instance();
m_current_state = NEWS_STATE_QUIET;
m_state_since = 0;
m_history_count = 0;
m_max_history = 200;
ArrayResize(m_impact_history, m_max_history);
m_baseline_volatility = 0.0;
m_baseline_spread = 0.0;
m_baseline_measured = 0;
m_baseline_lookback_bars = 20;
m_use_ml_predictions = true;
m_export_for_training = true;
m_export_filename = "DualEA\\news_impact_training.csv";
m_volatility_measurement_bars = 10;
m_spread_widening_threshold = 1.5; // 150% of normal
m_volatility_spike_threshold = 2.0; // 200% of normal
m_analysis_count = 0;
m_trade_blocked_count = 0;
m_threshold_adjusted_count = 0;
}
~CNewsImpactAnalyzer()
{
}
static CNewsImpactAnalyzer* Instance()
{
if(s_instance == NULL)
s_instance = new CNewsImpactAnalyzer();
return s_instance;
}
static void Destroy()
{
if(s_instance != NULL)
{
delete s_instance;
s_instance = NULL;
}
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Configuration |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void SetUseMLPredictions(bool use) { m_use_ml_predictions = use; }
void SetExportForTraining(bool export_data) { m_export_for_training = export_data; }
void SetBaselineLookback(int bars) { m_baseline_lookback_bars = bars; }
void SetSpreadThreshold(double threshold) { m_spread_widening_threshold = threshold; }
void SetVolatilityThreshold(double threshold) { m_volatility_spike_threshold = threshold; }
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Main analysis entry point |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
SThresholdAdjustment AnalyzeNewsImpact(const string symbol, int buffer_minutes_before = 30, int buffer_minutes_after = 60)
{
m_analysis_count++;
SThresholdAdjustment adjustment;
// Get news impact from calendar
SNewsImpact news_impact = m_calendar.CheckNewsImpact(symbol, buffer_minutes_before, buffer_minutes_after);
// Update baseline if needed
UpdateBaselineMetrics(symbol);
// Measure current market response
SMarketResponse response = MeasureMarketResponse(symbol);
// Determine news state
ENUM_NEWS_STATE new_state = DetermineNewsState(news_impact, response);
// Handle state transition
if(new_state != m_current_state)
{
Log("News state changed from " + StateToString(m_current_state) + " to " + StateToString(new_state));
m_current_state = new_state;
m_state_since = TimeCurrent();
}
// Calculate threshold adjustment
adjustment = CalculateThresholdAdjustment(new_state, news_impact, response);
m_current_adjustment = adjustment;
// Update statistics
if(!adjustment.should_trade)
m_trade_blocked_count++;
if(adjustment.direction != THRESHOLD_NORMAL)
m_threshold_adjusted_count++;
// Record for ML training
if(m_export_for_training && news_impact.is_news_time)
{
RecordForTraining(symbol, news_impact, response, adjustment);
}
return adjustment;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Update baseline volatility and spread |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void UpdateBaselineMetrics(const string symbol)
{
datetime now = TimeCurrent();
// Update every 5 minutes
if((now - m_baseline_measured) < 300)
return;
// Calculate baseline volatility (ATR)
int atr_handle = iATR(symbol, PERIOD_CURRENT, m_baseline_lookback_bars);
if(atr_handle != INVALID_HANDLE)
{
double atr[];
if(CopyBuffer(atr_handle, 0, 0, 1, atr) == 1)
{
m_baseline_volatility = atr[0];
}
IndicatorRelease(atr_handle);
}
// Get baseline spread
m_baseline_spread = SymbolInfoInteger(symbol, SYMBOL_SPREAD) * SymbolInfoDouble(symbol, SYMBOL_POINT);
m_baseline_measured = now;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Measure current market response to news |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
SMarketResponse MeasureMarketResponse(const string symbol)
{
SMarketResponse response;
response.measurement_time = TimeCurrent();
// Price change over last N bars
MqlRates rates[];
if(CopyRates(symbol, PERIOD_CURRENT, 0, m_volatility_measurement_bars, rates) == m_volatility_measurement_bars)
{
double price_start = rates[0].close;
double price_end = rates[m_volatility_measurement_bars - 1].close;
response.price_change_pct = (price_end - price_start) / price_start * 100.0;
// Calculate volatility spike
double current_atr = 0.0;
for(int i = 1; i < m_volatility_measurement_bars; i++)
{
current_atr += MathMax(rates[i].high - rates[i].low,
MathMax(MathAbs(rates[i].high - rates[i-1].close),
MathAbs(rates[i].low - rates[i-1].close)));
}
current_atr /= m_volatility_measurement_bars;
if(m_baseline_volatility > 0)
{
response.volatility_spike = current_atr / m_baseline_volatility;
}
// Determine if trending
double highest_high = rates[0].high;
double lowest_low = rates[0].low;
for(int i = 1; i < m_volatility_measurement_bars; i++)
{
highest_high = MathMax(highest_high, rates[i].high);
lowest_low = MathMin(lowest_low, rates[i].low);
}
double range = highest_high - lowest_low;
if(range > 0)
{
response.is_trending = MathAbs(response.price_change_pct) > (range / price_start * 100.0 * 0.6);
response.trend_direction = (response.price_change_pct > 0) ? 1 : -1;
}
}
// Current spread vs baseline
double current_spread = SymbolInfoInteger(symbol, SYMBOL_SPREAD) * SymbolInfoDouble(symbol, SYMBOL_POINT);
if(m_baseline_spread > 0)
{
response.spread_widening = current_spread / m_baseline_spread;
}
// Volume surge (if available)
long volume[];
if(CopyTickVolume(symbol, PERIOD_CURRENT, 0, m_volatility_measurement_bars, volume) == m_volatility_measurement_bars)
{
long avg_volume = 0;
for(int i = 0; i < m_volatility_measurement_bars; i++)
{
avg_volume += volume[i];
}
avg_volume /= m_volatility_measurement_bars;
if(avg_volume > 0)
{
response.volume_surge = (int)((volume[m_volatility_measurement_bars - 1] * 100) / avg_volume);
}
}
return response;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Determine current news state |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
ENUM_NEWS_STATE DetermineNewsState(const SNewsImpact &news, const SMarketResponse &response)
{
// Check for active news
if(news.is_news_time)
{
return NEWS_STATE_ACTIVE;
}
// Check for aftermath (high volatility after recent news)
if(response.volatility_spike > m_volatility_spike_threshold &&
(TimeCurrent() - m_state_since) < 1800) // Within 30 min of state change
{
return NEWS_STATE_AFTERMATH;
}
// Check for warning (news approaching within 15 minutes)
if(news.next_event_time > 0)
{
int seconds_to_event = (int)(news.next_event_time - TimeCurrent());
if(seconds_to_event > 0 && seconds_to_event <= 900) // 15 minutes
{
return NEWS_STATE_WARNING;
}
}
return NEWS_STATE_QUIET;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Calculate threshold adjustment based on state |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
SThresholdAdjustment CalculateThresholdAdjustment(ENUM_NEWS_STATE state,
const SNewsImpact &news,
const SMarketResponse &response)
{
SThresholdAdjustment adj;
switch(state)
{
case NEWS_STATE_QUIET:
// Normal trading conditions
adj.direction = THRESHOLD_NORMAL;
adj.confidence_multiplier = 1.0;
adj.risk_multiplier = 1.0;
adj.position_size_multiplier = 1.0;
adj.should_trade = true;
adj.reason = "Normal market conditions";
break;
case NEWS_STATE_WARNING:
// News approaching - be more conservative
adj.direction = THRESHOLD_CONSERVATIVE;
adj.confidence_multiplier = 1.2; // 20% harder to meet confidence
adj.risk_multiplier = 0.8; // 20% less risk
adj.position_size_multiplier = 0.7; // 30% smaller positions
adj.sl_pips_adjustment = 5; // Wider SL
adj.tp_pips_adjustment = 3; // Wider TP
adj.should_trade = true;
adj.reason = "News approaching: " + news.next_event_name;
adj.effective_until = news.next_event_time + 3600; // 1 hour after event
break;
case NEWS_STATE_ACTIVE:
// News happening now - most conservative or block
if(news.current_importance >= EVENT_IMPORTANCE_HIGH)
{
adj.direction = THRESHOLD_BLOCK;
adj.should_trade = false;
adj.reason = "HIGH IMPACT NEWS ACTIVE: " + news.reason;
}
else
{
adj.direction = THRESHOLD_CONSERVATIVE;
adj.confidence_multiplier = 1.5; // 50% harder
adj.risk_multiplier = 0.5; // 50% less risk
adj.position_size_multiplier = 0.5; // 50% smaller
adj.sl_pips_adjustment = 10; // Much wider SL
adj.tp_pips_adjustment = 5;
adj.should_trade = true;
adj.reason = "News active: " + news.reason;
}
adj.effective_until = TimeCurrent() + 1800; // 30 minutes
break;
case NEWS_STATE_AFTERMATH:
// Post-news volatility - conservative
adj.direction = THRESHOLD_CONSERVATIVE;
adj.confidence_multiplier = 1.3;
adj.risk_multiplier = 0.7;
adj.position_size_multiplier = 0.6;
adj.should_trade = true;
adj.reason = "Post-news volatility detected";
adj.effective_until = TimeCurrent() + 900; // 15 minutes
break;
}
// Additional adjustments based on market response
if(response.volatility_spike > m_volatility_spike_threshold)
{
adj.confidence_multiplier *= 1.2;
adj.reason += " | High volatility detected";
}
if(response.spread_widening > m_spread_widening_threshold)
{
adj.confidence_multiplier *= 1.1;
adj.position_size_multiplier *= 0.8;
adj.reason += " | Spread widening";
}
return adj;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Record data for ML training |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void RecordForTraining(const string symbol,
const SNewsImpact &news,
const SMarketResponse &response,
const SThresholdAdjustment &adjustment)
{
// Build CSV line
string line = StringFormat("%s,%s,%.4f,%.4f,%.4f,%d,%.2f,%.2f,%d,%.2f,%d,%.2f,%s\n",
TimeToString(TimeCurrent(), TIME_DATE|TIME_SECONDS),
symbol,
news.volatility_prediction,
response.volatility_spike,
response.spread_widening,
response.volume_surge,
response.price_change_pct,
(double)response.is_trending,
adjustment.direction,
adjustment.confidence_multiplier,
(adjustment.should_trade ? 1 : 0),
CalculateProfitabilityScore(news, response),
news.reason
);
// Append to training file
int handle = FileOpen(m_export_filename,
FILE_WRITE|FILE_READ|FILE_CSV|FILE_COMMON,
',');
if(handle != INVALID_HANDLE)
{
FileSeek(handle, 0, SEEK_END);
// Write header if new file
if(FileSize(handle) == 0)
{
FileWriteString(handle,
"timestamp,symbol,volatility_prediction,volatility_spike,spread_widening," +
"volume_surge,price_change_pct,is_trending,threshold_direction," +
"confidence_multiplier,should_trade,profitability_score,news_reason\n");
}
FileWriteString(handle, line);
FileClose(handle);
}
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Calculate profitability score for ML (0-1) |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
double CalculateProfitabilityScore(const SNewsImpact &news, const SMarketResponse &response)
{
// This is a heuristic - in production, this would be calculated from actual trade results
double score = 0.5; // Neutral
// Reduce score for high volatility
if(response.volatility_spike > 2.0)
score -= 0.2;
// Reduce score for wide spreads
if(response.spread_widening > 1.5)
score -= 0.15;
// Increase score if trending clearly
if(response.is_trending && MathAbs(response.price_change_pct) > 0.1)
score += 0.15;
// Clamp
if(score < 0) score = 0;
if(score > 1) score = 1;
return score;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Get current adjustment (cached) |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
SThresholdAdjustment GetCurrentAdjustment()
{
// Check if expired
if(m_current_adjustment.effective_until > 0 &&
TimeCurrent() > m_current_adjustment.effective_until)
{
// Reset to normal
m_current_adjustment = SThresholdAdjustment();
m_current_state = NEWS_STATE_QUIET;
}
return m_current_adjustment;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Apply adjustment to a confidence value |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
double ApplyToConfidence(double base_confidence)
{
SThresholdAdjustment adj = GetCurrentAdjustment();
return base_confidence / adj.confidence_multiplier;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Apply adjustment to position size |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
double ApplyToPositionSize(double base_lots)
{
SThresholdAdjustment adj = GetCurrentAdjustment();
return base_lots * adj.position_size_multiplier;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Check if trading should proceed |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
bool ShouldTrade()
{
SThresholdAdjustment adj = GetCurrentAdjustment();
return adj.should_trade;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Statistics and reporting |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
string GetStatistics()
{
string stats = StringFormat(
"=== News Impact Analyzer Statistics ===\n" +
"Analyses performed: %d\n" +
"Trades blocked: %d (%.1f%%)\n" +
"Thresholds adjusted: %d (%.1f%%)\n" +
"Current state: %s\n" +
"Training records: %d\n" +
"Baseline volatility: %.5f\n" +
"Baseline spread: %.5f",
m_analysis_count,
m_trade_blocked_count,
(m_analysis_count > 0 ? 100.0 * m_trade_blocked_count / m_analysis_count : 0),
m_threshold_adjusted_count,
(m_analysis_count > 0 ? 100.0 * m_threshold_adjusted_count / m_analysis_count : 0),
StateToString(m_current_state),
m_history_count,
m_baseline_volatility,
m_baseline_spread
);
return stats;
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Utility functions |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
string StateToString(ENUM_NEWS_STATE state)
{
switch(state)
{
case NEWS_STATE_QUIET: return "QUIET";
case NEWS_STATE_WARNING: return "WARNING";
case NEWS_STATE_ACTIVE: return "ACTIVE";
case NEWS_STATE_AFTERMATH: return "AFTERMATH";
default: return "UNKNOWN";
}
}
void Log(const string message)
{
Print("[NewsImpactAnalyzer] " + message);
}
// Getters
ENUM_NEWS_STATE GetCurrentState() const { return m_current_state; }
bool IsActive() const { return m_current_state != NEWS_STATE_QUIET; }
string GetCurrentReason() const { return m_current_adjustment.reason; }
};
// Static instance initialization
CNewsImpactAnalyzer* CNewsImpactAnalyzer::s_instance = NULL;
// Convenience macros
#define ANALYZE_NEWS(symbol) \
CNewsImpactAnalyzer::Instance().AnalyzeNewsImpact(symbol)
#define GET_NEWS_ADJUSTMENT() \
CNewsImpactAnalyzer::Instance().GetCurrentAdjustment()
#define SHOULD_TRADE_NEWS() \
CNewsImpactAnalyzer::Instance().ShouldTrade()
#define APPLY_NEWS_TO_CONFIDENCE(base_conf) \
CNewsImpactAnalyzer::Instance().ApplyToConfidence(base_conf)
#define APPLY_NEWS_TO_SIZE(base_lots) \
CNewsImpactAnalyzer::Instance().ApplyToPositionSize(base_lots)
#endif // CNEWSIMPACTANALYZER_MQH