Found by restarting the terminal against three charts that had just deployed -
the exact scenario d9092a2 was written for, run deliberately rather than
assumed. It failed, and the failure was mine.
SP500 swept 4999 bar(s), 4986 had a snapshot, 0 had a voter, drew 0
arrow(s). Strongest vote 0.0% against a 10.0% threshold.
The snapshot count proves d9092a2 worked: the certified edge was restored
(26.20% precision vs 13.70% chance, verified in the .stats bytes),
HasDemonstratedEdge returned true, ReconstructionWeight was non-zero and the
divisor was healthy on 4986 of 4999 bars.
But TWO readers need the member's chance rate, and I taught only one to fall
back. LiveVoteContribution still read m_eraStatChancePct DIRECTLY - era-only
state, -1 on a converged model that runs no eras - so it bailed out at
"no reference rate yet" and returned 0 for every call. The member was admitted
to the divisor and then contributed nothing to the sum: eligible, and silent.
Exactly the failure mode in feedback_rename_leaves_readers_behind, committed by
the person who wrote that note down.
Both quantities now come from one accessor each - MeasuredPrecPct() and
MeasuredChancePct() - so a third reader cannot repeat it.
ALSO: the "restored the certified edge" line was PrintVerbose. It marks a STATE
RESTORE, which by this codebase's own rule never sits behind the verbose gate,
and its absence from the log was briefly read as evidence the restore had not
happened. Promoted to Print.
Build tag -> voterestore-v1. Not a layout change: no retrain.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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