67 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
67 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
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# EXP-003 — RAW EVIDENCE MANIFEST (Phase 3)
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**Tanggal:** 2026-08-13 · **Baseline produksi (git HEAD):** `f81d85defc1768a4ab4adaf316cbe79dcf2dec29`
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**Protokol:** `EXP-003_SCANNER_ACTIVATION.md` v1.0.0 (sha256 `493cd7b35628e684...`)
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**Window:** XAUUSD M15, 2026-02-01 → 2026-07-31 · Model=1 (OHLC 1m) · `InpEnableTrading=false` semua arm
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## 1. Hasil per Arm (raw)
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| Arm | Konfigurasi (.set) | Setup count | FUSION calls | exp003_setups.csv |
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|-----|--------------------|:-----------:|:------------:|:-----------------:|
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| C0 | baseline v2.8.0 (prox 0.25, depth 200, exp 1.2, no-mitigated) | **0** | 0 | (tidak dibuat) |
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| B1 | prox **0.50** | **0** | 0 | (tidak dibuat) |
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| B2 | depth **400** | **0** | 0 | (tidak dibuat) |
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| B3 | prox 0.50 + depth 400 | **0** | 0 | (tidak dibuat) |
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| B4 | exp **1.0** + **allow_mitigated=true** | **0** | 0 | (tidak dibuat) |
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Semua 5 run: `Test passed` (teknis OK). `exp003_setups.csv` hanya dibuat bila `Scan()` menemukan kandidat → **tidak ada file = 0 kandidat (evidence itu sendiri)**.
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## 2. Verifikasi Input (dari log agent "started with inputs")
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| Run | Arm | InpEnableTrading | InpScanDepth | InpProximityMult | InpExpansionMin | InpAllowMitigatedOB |
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|-----|-----|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
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| 1 | C0 | false | 200 | 0.25 | 1.2 | false |
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| 2 | B1 | false | 200 | 0.50 | 1.2 | false |
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| 3 | B2 | false | 400 | 0.25 | 1.2 | false |
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| 4 | B3 | false | 400 | 0.50 | 1.2 | false |
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| 5 | B4 | false | 200 | 0.25 | 1.0 | true |
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## 3. Deteksi Scanner (log agent, seluruh run eksperimen)
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```
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Bullish OB+FVG @ : 0
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Bearish OB+FVG @ : 0
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FUSION lines : 0
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no-zone logs : 191 (throttle 1/10 dtk wall-clock; ~26 scan/6 bulan per arm)
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```
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## 4. Diagnostic Density Pola Mentah (data terminal, 2.848 bar M15, 2026-06-18 → 07-31)
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Pola dasar triple-candle displacement+FVG dihitung **tanpa gate** expansion/mitigation/proximity:
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```
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expansion >= 1.0 : bull=0 bear=0 total=0
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expansion >= 1.2 : bull=0 bear=0 total=0
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```
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→ Data mentah menunjukkan pola dasar (OB bearish + impulse bullish close>high[i] + FVG low[i-2]>high[i], dan cerminnya) **tidak muncul sama sekali** di sampel tersebut.
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## 5. Keputusan Gate A (per protokol §6)
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`setup_frequency < 2/bulan` pada **SEMUA arm** (0 setup / 6 bulan) → **Gate A TIDAK LULUS**.
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Per protokol: masalah *signal generation* lebih dalam (definisi pola OB/FVG, bukan threshold
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proximity/depth/expansion/mitigation) → evaluasi hipotesis baru. **Tanpa tuning lanjutan.**
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## 6. Hash Artifact (SHA-256)
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| Artifact | Hash |
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|----------|------|
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| EXP003_C0.set | `732d2230e1fb76ed38b8263e055f2a1d26055752b79ece0ab600b731b678dbfb` |
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| EXP003_B1.set | `7da55578375bbc96d34d95d4f365637ee0229474fca634dd576beffe77cdfb25` |
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| EXP003_B2.set | `39ceb93973026c5e298ee894edb4cae0845252bea1218aea5d4ac8ac3f598fa9` |
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| EXP003_B3.set | `2d505027d8ae13c1ae9369bd018f415800b78987591b6438d177f2815b5d8689` |
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| EXP003_B4.set | `7bca325e29da661df7e2c772b0e036d30cf3431829ae5654f5f514ce80648212` |
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| EXP-003_SCANNER_ACTIVATION.md | `493cd7b35628e6842693ba196e8dbb0141172615d6c55d09f9818dd946bc725a` |
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| diagnostic_pattern_density.py | `6d9b5f0d0c2c8f341cf865a9c92b35de408d318beb21277cb43a6a73b918fd58` |
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| raw_history_sample_2026-06-18_2026-07-31.txt | `7bde8c9c339634589c61e57402d9cbb4d71ec293a5a1f21975299c9d43625e85` |
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| Baseline produksi (HEAD) | `f81d85defc1768a4ab4adaf316cbe79dcf2dec29` |
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