Market_State_Board/Include/MarketStateBoard_MDM_PATCH19.mqh

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| MarketStateBoard_MDM.mqh                                        |
//| PATCH-19 - MDM News Dynamic                                     |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
// Post-Base analytical layer: Base State -> Market Dynamics -> Final State.
// Types: CONTINUATION / DAMPENING / REVERSAL / UNRESOLVED.
// Strength: WEAK / STRONG / VERY STRONG / EXTREME.
// Numeric modifier is internal; it is not a probability/confidence/signal.
// FINAL invariants: Response > Event; session is context only; conflicts are
// unresolved rather than averaged away; weak/strong reversal cannot zero-cross.
// PATCH-19 News Dynamic: calendar information includes Actual/Forecast/Previous/
// Revised Previous, event importance/sector/type, surprise/revision/expectation
// shift and response phase. For CLOSED bars the full evaluated candle window is
// eligible; CURRENT bars are clamped to server-now so no future event is read.

// This include uses only primitive trend-direction codes (+1/-1/0) and does not
// access g_state[].

enum MSB_MDM_Type
{
   MDM_CONTINUATION,
   MDM_DAMPENING,
   MDM_REVERSAL,
   MDM_UNRESOLVED,
   MDM_DATA_UNAVAILABLE
};

enum MSB_MDM_Strength
{
   MDM_STRENGTH_NONE,
   MDM_WEAK,
   MDM_STRONG,
   MDM_VERY_STRONG,
   MDM_EXTREME
};

enum MSB_MDM_NewsPhase
{
   MDM_NEWS_NONE,
   MDM_NEWS_RELEASE_SHOCK,
   MDM_NEWS_INITIAL_RESPONSE,
   MDM_NEWS_CONFIRMED_RESPONSE
};

enum MSB_MDM_Authority
{
   MDM_AUTH_NONE,
   MDM_AUTH_DAMPEN_ONLY,
   MDM_AUTH_MAGNITUDE_ADJUST,
   MDM_AUTH_ZERO_CROSS_ALLOWED
};

struct MSB_MDM_Input
{
   bool valid;
   ENUM_TIMEFRAMES tf;
   datetime selectedTime;
   datetime evaluationEnd;
   bool currentBar;
   string symbol;
   string baseCurrency;
   string profitCurrency;
   double open, high, low, close;
   double previousOpen, previousHigh, previousLow, previousClose;
   double range, bodyRatio, closeLocation, rangeAtrRatio, volumeRatio;
   double compositeScore;
   bool compositeValid;
   int trendDirection; // +1 UP, -1 DOWN, 0 FLAT/other
   double trendQuality;
   bool trendValid;
};

struct MSB_MDM_State
{
   bool valid;
   MSB_MDM_Type type;
   MSB_MDM_Strength strength;
   MSB_MDM_Authority authority;
   int direction;
   double modifier;
   int evidenceCount;
   int continuationEvidence;
   int dampeningEvidence;
   int reversalEvidence;
   bool sessionActive;
   bool liquidityEvent;
   bool participationEvent;
   bool volatilityEvent;
   bool newsEvent;
   MSB_MDM_NewsPhase newsPhase;
   int newsImportance;
   int newsEventCount;
   double newsSurprise;
   double newsRevision;
   double newsExpectationShift;
   double newsShock;
   string newsEventName;
   string newsEventCode;
   datetime newsEventTime;
   bool newsHighImpact;
   int newsEventType;
   int newsSector;
   int newsImpact;
   bool responseConfirmed;
   bool conflict;
   string diagnostic;
};

MSB_MDM_Input MDM_InvalidInput()
{
   MSB_MDM_Input x;
   x.valid=false; x.tf=PERIOD_CURRENT; x.selectedTime=0; x.evaluationEnd=0; x.currentBar=false;
   x.symbol=""; x.baseCurrency=""; x.profitCurrency="";
   x.open=x.high=x.low=x.close=0.0;
   x.previousOpen=x.previousHigh=x.previousLow=x.previousClose=0.0;
   x.range=x.bodyRatio=x.closeLocation=x.rangeAtrRatio=x.volumeRatio=0.0;
   x.compositeScore=0.0; x.compositeValid=false;
   x.trendDirection=0; x.trendQuality=0.0; x.trendValid=false;
   return x;
}

MSB_MDM_State MDM_InvalidState()
{
   MSB_MDM_State m;
   m.valid=false; m.type=MDM_DATA_UNAVAILABLE;
   m.strength=MDM_STRENGTH_NONE; m.authority=MDM_AUTH_NONE;
   m.direction=0; m.modifier=0.0; m.evidenceCount=0;
   m.continuationEvidence=0; m.dampeningEvidence=0; m.reversalEvidence=0;
   m.sessionActive=false; m.liquidityEvent=false; m.participationEvent=false;
   m.volatilityEvent=false; m.newsEvent=false;
   m.newsPhase=MDM_NEWS_NONE; m.newsImportance=0; m.newsEventCount=0;
   m.newsSurprise=0.0; m.newsRevision=0.0; m.newsExpectationShift=0.0;
   m.newsShock=0.0; m.newsEventName=""; m.newsEventCode=""; m.newsEventTime=0;
   m.newsHighImpact=false; m.newsEventType=0; m.newsSector=0; m.newsImpact=0; m.responseConfirmed=false;
   m.conflict=false; m.diagnostic="DATA UNAVAILABLE";
   return m;
}

bool MDM_Finite(double v)
{
   return (v==v) && (v<DBL_MAX) && (v>-DBL_MAX);
}

double MDM_Clamp(double v,double lo,double hi)
{
   return MathMax(lo,MathMin(hi,v));
}

int MDM_StrengthRank(MSB_MDM_Strength s)
{
   switch(s)
   {
      case MDM_WEAK: return 1;
      case MDM_STRONG: return 2;
      case MDM_VERY_STRONG: return 3;
      case MDM_EXTREME: return 4;
      default: return 0;
   }
}

int MDM_Sign(double v)
{
   if(v>0.0) return 1;
   if(v<0.0) return -1;
   return 0;
}

bool MDM_IsActiveSession(datetime t)
{
   MqlDateTime dt;
   TimeToStruct(t,dt);
   // Trade-server-time activity windows are context only; they do not create
   // bullish/bearish direction.
   return ((dt.hour>=7 && dt.hour<11) ||
           (dt.hour>=13 && dt.hour<17) ||
           (dt.hour>=17 && dt.hour<21));
}

int MDM_PriceResponse(const MSB_MDM_Input &x)
{
   if(!x.valid || x.range<=0.0) return 0;
   int priorDir=MDM_Sign(x.previousClose-x.previousOpen);
   int curDir=MDM_Sign(x.close-x.open);
   if(curDir==0) return 0;
   if(curDir>0 && x.closeLocation>=0.70) return 1;
   if(curDir<0 && x.closeLocation<=0.30) return -1;
   if(priorDir!=0 && curDir==-priorDir) return curDir;
   return curDir;
}

int MDM_ImportanceRank(ENUM_CALENDAR_EVENT_IMPORTANCE importance)
{
   switch(importance)
   {
      case CALENDAR_IMPORTANCE_HIGH: return 3;
      case CALENDAR_IMPORTANCE_MODERATE: return 2;
      case CALENDAR_IMPORTANCE_LOW: return 1;
      default: return 0;
   }
}

double MDM_NewsRelativeDiff(double a,double b)
{
   if(!MDM_Finite(a) || !MDM_Finite(b)) return 0.0;
   double denom=MathMax(MathMax(MathAbs(a),MathAbs(b)),1.0);
   return MDM_Clamp(MathAbs(a-b)/denom,0.0,1.0);
}

bool MDM_CalendarCurrencyRelevant(const MqlCalendarEvent &event,const string &base,const string &profit)
{
   MqlCalendarCountry country;
   if(!CalendarCountryById(event.country_id,country)) return false;
   if(base!="" && StringFind(country.currency,base)>=0) return true;
   if(profit!="" && StringFind(country.currency,profit)>=0) return true;
   // Preserve the project's XAUUSD focus even if symbol currency metadata is unavailable.
   if(base=="" && profit=="" && StringFind("USD","USD")>=0) return (StringFind(country.currency,"USD")>=0);
   return false;
}

int MDM_NewsCacheSlot(ENUM_TIMEFRAMES tf)
{
   switch(tf)
   {
      case PERIOD_M1:  return 0;
      case PERIOD_M5:  return 1;
      case PERIOD_M15: return 2;
      case PERIOD_M30: return 3;
      case PERIOD_H1:  return 4;
      case PERIOD_H4:  return 5;
      case PERIOD_D1:  return 6;
      case PERIOD_W1:  return 7;
      case PERIOD_MN1: return 8;
      default: return -1;
   }
}

void MDM_CalendarShock(const MSB_MDM_Input &x,MSB_MDM_State &m)
{
   static datetime cacheSelected[9];
   static datetime cacheEnd[9];
   static bool cacheCurrent[9];
   static string cacheBase[9];
   static string cacheProfit[9];
   static MSB_MDM_State cacheState[9];

   int slot=MDM_NewsCacheSlot(x.tf);
   if(slot>=0 && cacheSelected[slot]==x.selectedTime &&
      cacheEnd[slot]==x.evaluationEnd && cacheCurrent[slot]==x.currentBar &&
      cacheBase[slot]==x.baseCurrency && cacheProfit[slot]==x.profitCurrency)
   {
      m.newsEvent=cacheState[slot].newsEvent;
      m.newsPhase=cacheState[slot].newsPhase;
      m.newsImportance=cacheState[slot].newsImportance;
      m.newsEventCount=cacheState[slot].newsEventCount;
      m.newsSurprise=cacheState[slot].newsSurprise;
      m.newsRevision=cacheState[slot].newsRevision;
      m.newsExpectationShift=cacheState[slot].newsExpectationShift;
      m.newsShock=cacheState[slot].newsShock;
      m.newsEventName=cacheState[slot].newsEventName;
      m.newsEventCode=cacheState[slot].newsEventCode;
      m.newsEventTime=cacheState[slot].newsEventTime;
      m.newsHighImpact=cacheState[slot].newsHighImpact;
      m.newsEventType=cacheState[slot].newsEventType;
      m.newsSector=cacheState[slot].newsSector;
      m.newsImpact=cacheState[slot].newsImpact;
      return;
   }

   m.newsEvent=false;
   m.newsPhase=MDM_NEWS_NONE;
   m.newsImportance=0;
   m.newsEventCount=0;
   m.newsSurprise=0.0;
   m.newsRevision=0.0;
   m.newsExpectationShift=0.0;
   m.newsShock=0.0;
   m.newsEventName="";
   m.newsEventCode="";
   m.newsEventTime=0;
   m.newsHighImpact=false;
   m.newsEventType=0;
   m.newsSector=0;
   m.newsImpact=0;

   if(x.selectedTime<=0) return;
   datetime from=x.selectedTime-30*60;
   datetime to=x.evaluationEnd;
   if(to<=x.selectedTime) to=x.selectedTime;
   if(x.currentBar)
   {
      datetime now=TimeTradeServer();
      if(now<=0) now=TimeCurrent();
      if(now>0) to=MathMin(to,now);
   }
   if(to<from) return;

   // Calendar functions use trade-server time. Query both symbol currencies when
   // available; duplicates are harmless because we select the strongest event.
   string currencies[2];
   currencies[0]=x.baseCurrency;
   currencies[1]=x.profitCurrency;
   if(currencies[0]=="" && currencies[1]=="") currencies[0]="USD";

   double bestShock=0.0;
   for(int pass=0;pass<2;pass++)
   {
      string currency=currencies[pass];
      if(currency=="") continue;
      if(pass==1 && currencies[1]==currencies[0]) continue;
      MqlCalendarValue values[];
      int n=CalendarValueHistory(values,from,to,NULL,currency);
      if(n<=0) continue;

      for(int i=0;i<n;i++)
      {
         if(values[i].time<from || values[i].time>to) continue;
         if(!values[i].HasActualValue()) continue;

         MqlCalendarEvent event;
         if(!CalendarEventById(values[i].event_id,event)) continue;
         if(!MDM_CalendarCurrencyRelevant(event,x.baseCurrency,x.profitCurrency) &&
            !(x.baseCurrency=="" && x.profitCurrency=="" && currency=="USD")) continue;

         double actual=values[i].GetActualValue();
         if(!MDM_Finite(actual)) continue;
         bool hasForecast=values[i].HasForecastValue();
         bool hasPrevious=values[i].HasPreviousValue();
         bool hasRevised=values[i].HasRevisedValue();
         double forecast=hasForecast ? values[i].GetForecastValue() : 0.0;
         double previous=hasPrevious ? values[i].GetPreviousValue() : 0.0;
         double revised=hasRevised ? values[i].GetRevisedValue() : 0.0;

         double surprise=hasForecast ? MDM_NewsRelativeDiff(actual,forecast) : 0.0;
         double change=hasPrevious ? MDM_NewsRelativeDiff(actual,previous) : 0.0;
         double revision=(hasRevised && hasPrevious) ? MDM_NewsRelativeDiff(revised,previous) : 0.0;
         double expectation=(hasForecast && hasPrevious) ? MDM_NewsRelativeDiff(forecast,previous) : 0.0;

         int importance=MDM_ImportanceRank(event.importance);
         if(importance<=0) continue;

         // Materiality is information-content based, not a directional forecast.
         // A high-importance event remains relevant even when its surprise is small.
         double material=MathMax(surprise,revision);
         if(material<=0.0 && expectation<=0.0) material=MathMin(change,0.25);
         // Importance determines relevance, but does not fabricate surprise.
         // A high-impact event with no measurable information change is retained
         // only as context when Actual/Forecast/Previous are present, not as shock.
         double shock=(double)importance/3.0 * MDM_Clamp(material*2.0,0.0,1.0);
         if(shock<=0.05) continue;

         datetime eventEnd=x.evaluationEnd;
         if(eventEnd<=values[i].time) eventEnd=values[i].time+1;
         int age=(int)(eventEnd-values[i].time);
         MSB_MDM_NewsPhase phase=MDM_NEWS_CONFIRMED_RESPONSE;
         if(age<=5*60) phase=MDM_NEWS_RELEASE_SHOCK;
         else if(age<=30*60) phase=MDM_NEWS_INITIAL_RESPONSE;

         m.newsEventCount++;
         if(shock>bestShock)
         {
            bestShock=shock;
            m.newsEvent=true;
            m.newsImportance=importance;
            m.newsSurprise=surprise;
            m.newsRevision=revision;
            m.newsExpectationShift=expectation;
            m.newsShock=shock;
            m.newsEventName=event.name;
            m.newsEventCode=event.event_code;
            m.newsEventTime=values[i].time;
            m.newsPhase=phase;
            m.newsHighImpact=(importance>=3);
            m.newsEventType=(int)event.type;
            m.newsSector=(int)event.sector;
            m.newsImpact=(int)values[i].impact_type;
         }
      }
   }

   if(slot>=0)
   {
      cacheSelected[slot]=x.selectedTime;
      cacheEnd[slot]=x.evaluationEnd;
      cacheCurrent[slot]=x.currentBar;
      cacheBase[slot]=x.baseCurrency;
      cacheProfit[slot]=x.profitCurrency;
      cacheState[slot]=MDM_InvalidState();
      cacheState[slot].newsEvent=m.newsEvent;
      cacheState[slot].newsPhase=m.newsPhase;
      cacheState[slot].newsImportance=m.newsImportance;
      cacheState[slot].newsEventCount=m.newsEventCount;
      cacheState[slot].newsSurprise=m.newsSurprise;
      cacheState[slot].newsRevision=m.newsRevision;
      cacheState[slot].newsExpectationShift=m.newsExpectationShift;
      cacheState[slot].newsShock=m.newsShock;
      cacheState[slot].newsEventName=m.newsEventName;
      cacheState[slot].newsEventCode=m.newsEventCode;
      cacheState[slot].newsEventTime=m.newsEventTime;
      cacheState[slot].newsHighImpact=m.newsHighImpact;
      cacheState[slot].newsEventType=m.newsEventType;
      cacheState[slot].newsSector=m.newsSector;
      cacheState[slot].newsImpact=m.newsImpact;
   }
}

MSB_MDM_State MDM_Compute(const MSB_MDM_Input &x)
{
   MSB_MDM_State m=MDM_InvalidState();
   if(!x.valid || !x.compositeValid || !MDM_Finite(x.compositeScore) ||
      x.compositeScore<-1.0 || x.compositeScore>1.0 || x.range<=0.0 ||
      !MDM_Finite(x.closeLocation) || !MDM_Finite(x.rangeAtrRatio) ||
      !MDM_Finite(x.volumeRatio)) return m;

   m.valid=true;
   m.sessionActive=MDM_IsActiveSession(x.selectedTime);
   int baseDir=MDM_Sign(x.compositeScore);
   int responseDir=MDM_PriceResponse(x);

   MDM_CalendarShock(x,m);

   // Liquidity-response proxy: sweep previous extreme and close back inside.
   bool sweepUp=(x.high>x.previousHigh && x.close<x.previousHigh);
   bool sweepDn=(x.low<x.previousLow && x.close>x.previousLow);
   m.liquidityEvent=(sweepUp || sweepDn);
   int sweepDir=0;
   if(sweepUp && !sweepDn) sweepDir=-1;
   if(sweepDn && !sweepUp) sweepDir=1;

   m.participationEvent=(x.volumeRatio>=1.30);
   m.volatilityEvent=(x.rangeAtrRatio>=1.30);

   // Response > event. The candle response establishes the primary dynamic
   // direction; event families can only add one reinforcing point each.
   if(baseDir!=0 && responseDir==baseDir) m.continuationEvidence++;
   if(baseDir!=0 && responseDir==-baseDir) m.reversalEvidence++;
   if(baseDir!=0 && responseDir==0) m.dampeningEvidence++;

   if(sweepDir!=0 && baseDir!=0)
   {
      if(sweepDir==-baseDir) m.reversalEvidence++;
      else m.continuationEvidence++;
   }

   if(m.participationEvent && responseDir==baseDir && baseDir!=0)
      m.continuationEvidence++;
   if(m.volatilityEvent && responseDir==-baseDir && baseDir!=0)
      m.reversalEvidence++;
   if(m.newsEvent && responseDir==baseDir && baseDir!=0)
      m.continuationEvidence++;
   if(m.newsEvent && responseDir==-baseDir && baseDir!=0)
      m.reversalEvidence++;

   // Trend is confirmation only and never establishes direction.
   if(x.trendValid && x.trendQuality>=0.70 && baseDir!=0)
   {
      if((baseDir>0 && x.trendDirection>0) ||
         (baseDir<0 && x.trendDirection<0)) m.continuationEvidence++;
      else if((baseDir>0 && x.trendDirection<0) ||
              (baseDir<0 && x.trendDirection>0)) m.reversalEvidence++;
   }

   // Weak base + simultaneous compression/low participation = dampening.
   if(baseDir!=0 && MathAbs(x.compositeScore)<0.30 &&
      x.volumeRatio<0.70 && x.rangeAtrRatio<0.70)
      m.dampeningEvidence++;

   int c=m.continuationEvidence, r=m.reversalEvidence, d=m.dampeningEvidence;
   m.evidenceCount=c+r+d;
   m.responseConfirmed=(responseDir!=0);

   // Contradictory branches are not averaged away.
   if(c>0 && r>0 && MathAbs(c-r)<2)
   {
      m.conflict=true; m.type=MDM_UNRESOLVED; m.strength=MDM_WEAK;
      m.authority=MDM_AUTH_DAMPEN_ONLY; m.direction=baseDir; m.modifier=0.0;
      m.diagnostic="CONFLICT / UNRESOLVED";
      return m;
   }

   if(r>0 && r>c && r>=d)
   {
      m.type=MDM_REVERSAL; m.direction=-baseDir;
      if(r>=4 && (m.liquidityEvent || m.newsEvent || m.volatilityEvent)) m.strength=MDM_EXTREME;
      else if(r>=3) m.strength=MDM_VERY_STRONG;
      else if(r>=2) m.strength=MDM_STRONG;
      else m.strength=MDM_WEAK;
   }
   else if(c>0 && c>r && c>=d)
   {
      m.type=MDM_CONTINUATION; m.direction=baseDir;
      if(c>=4 && (m.participationEvent || m.volatilityEvent || m.newsEvent)) m.strength=MDM_EXTREME;
      else if(c>=3) m.strength=MDM_VERY_STRONG;
      else if(c>=2) m.strength=MDM_STRONG;
      else m.strength=MDM_WEAK;
   }
   else if(d>0)
   {
      m.type=MDM_DAMPENING; m.direction=baseDir;
      if(d>=3) m.strength=MDM_VERY_STRONG;
      else if(d>=2) m.strength=MDM_STRONG;
      else m.strength=MDM_WEAK;
   }
   else
   {
      m.type=MDM_UNRESOLVED; m.strength=MDM_WEAK; m.authority=MDM_AUTH_NONE;
      m.direction=baseDir; m.modifier=0.0; m.diagnostic="NO COHERENT DYNAMIC";
      return m;
   }

   if(m.type==MDM_REVERSAL)
   {
      if(m.strength==MDM_WEAK) m.authority=MDM_AUTH_DAMPEN_ONLY;
      else if(m.strength==MDM_STRONG) m.authority=MDM_AUTH_MAGNITUDE_ADJUST;
      else m.authority=MDM_AUTH_ZERO_CROSS_ALLOWED;
   }
   else if(m.type==MDM_CONTINUATION) m.authority=MDM_AUTH_MAGNITUDE_ADJUST;
   else if(m.type==MDM_DAMPENING) m.authority=MDM_AUTH_DAMPEN_ONLY;
   else m.authority=MDM_AUTH_NONE;

   if(m.type==MDM_CONTINUATION)
   {
      if(m.strength==MDM_WEAK) m.modifier=0.15*baseDir;
      else if(m.strength==MDM_STRONG) m.modifier=0.30*baseDir;
      else if(m.strength==MDM_VERY_STRONG) m.modifier=0.45*baseDir;
      else m.modifier=0.60*baseDir;
   }
   else if(m.type==MDM_DAMPENING)
   {
      if(m.strength==MDM_WEAK) m.modifier=-0.15*baseDir;
      else if(m.strength==MDM_STRONG) m.modifier=-0.30*baseDir;
      else if(m.strength==MDM_VERY_STRONG) m.modifier=-0.45*baseDir;
      else m.modifier=-0.60*baseDir;
   }
   else if(m.type==MDM_REVERSAL)
   {
      if(m.strength==MDM_WEAK) m.modifier=-0.15*baseDir;
      else if(m.strength==MDM_STRONG) m.modifier=-0.35*baseDir;
      else if(m.strength==MDM_VERY_STRONG) m.modifier=-0.70*baseDir;
      else m.modifier=-1.00*baseDir;
   }
   m.modifier=MDM_Clamp(m.modifier,-1.0,1.0);
   m.diagnostic="PATCH-19 NEWS DYNAMIC / MDM";
   return m;
}

double MDM_ApplyToBase(const MSB_MDM_State &m,double baseScore)
{
   if(!m.valid || !MDM_Finite(baseScore) || baseScore<-1.0 || baseScore>1.0)
      return baseScore;
   if(m.type==MDM_UNRESOLVED || m.type==MDM_DATA_UNAVAILABLE) return baseScore;

   if(m.type==MDM_CONTINUATION)
   {
      double mag=MathAbs(baseScore);
      mag=MDM_Clamp(mag+(1.0-mag)*MathAbs(m.modifier),0.0,1.0);
      return (baseScore>=0.0 ? mag : -mag);
   }

   if(m.type==MDM_DAMPENING)
   {
      double mag=MathAbs(baseScore);
      mag=MDM_Clamp(mag*(1.0-MathAbs(m.modifier)),0.0,1.0);
      return (baseScore>=0.0 ? mag : -mag);
   }

   // Weak/strong reversal may damp only. Very-strong/extreme may cross zero.
   if(m.authority!=MDM_AUTH_ZERO_CROSS_ALLOWED)
   {
      double mag=MathAbs(baseScore)*(1.0-MathAbs(m.modifier));
      return (baseScore>=0.0 ? mag : -mag);
   }
   return MDM_Clamp(baseScore+m.modifier,-1.0,1.0);
}