US_rates_4_forex/US_rates_4_forex.mq5

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//|      US_Rates_WFO.mq5                                            |
//|      Beta-Driven Strategy with Walk-Forward Optimization         |
//|      Copyright 2025, https://www.mql5.com/en/users/exceltrader   |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
#property copyright "exceltrader"
#property link      "https://www.mql5.com/en/users/exceltrader"
#property version   "1.0"

#include <Trade\Trade.mqh>
#include <Math\Stat\Math.mqh>

//--- Inputs: Asset Proxies
input group "1. Asset Proxies"
input string    Bond_Symbol      = "TLT";      // Bond ETF (Yield Proxy) - Darwinex: "TLT" Ensure you Pick and US Bond Inde Proxy

//--- Inputs: Strategy Parameters
input group "2. Forecast Logic"
input int       Beta_Period      = 5;         // Default Lookback (Fallback if Opt off)
input double    Min_Correlation  = 0.5;        // Filter: Minimum correlation absolute value
input bool      Use_Theory_Filter = false;      // Filter: Trade only if Stats match Econ Theory
input int       Open_Hour        = 2;         // Entry Hour (Server Time - usually NY Close)

//--- Inputs: Self-Optimization (WFO)
input group "3. Self-Optimization"
input bool      Do_Self_Optimize = true;       // Enable Pre-Trade Optimization
input int       Opt_Lookback_Days= 40;         // Optimization Window (Days to test)
input int       Opt_Beta_Start   = 10;         // Start of Beta Period range
input int       Opt_Beta_End     = 40;         // End of Beta Period range
input int       Opt_Beta_Step    = 5;          // Step size for optimization

//--- Inputs: Risk Management
input group "4. Risk Management"
input double    Risk_Percent     = 1.0;        // Risk per trade (% of Equity)
input int       ATR_Period       = 20;         // ATR Period for Volatility
input double    SL_ATR_Mult      = 2;        // Stop Loss distance in ATRs
input double    TP_ATR_Mult      = 4.0;        // Take Profit distance in ATRs

//--- Inputs: Trade Management
input group "5. Trade Management"
input bool      Use_Trailing     = true;       // Enable Trailing Stop
input double    Trail_Trigger_ATR= 2.0;        // Start trailing after price moves X ATRs
input double    Trail_Step_ATR   = 0.5;        // Trail Step in ATRs

//--- Global Variables
CTrade          Trader;
ulong           EA_MAGIC         = 775599;
datetime        lastTradeDay     = 0;

//--- Symbol Enum (Major Liquid Pairs)
enum ENUM_STRATEGY_SYMBOLS {
   EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF
};

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Expert initialization function                                   |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int OnInit()
{
   Trader.SetExpertMagicNumber(EA_MAGIC);
   Trader.SetTypeFilling(ORDER_FILLING_IOC); // Crucial for Darwinex Execution
   
   if(!SymbolSelect(Bond_Symbol, true)) {
      Print("Error: Symbol '", Bond_Symbol, "' not found in Market Watch.");
      return(INIT_FAILED);
   }
   
   EventSetTimer(60); // Run every minute
   return(INIT_SUCCEEDED);
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Expert deinitialization function                                 |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void OnDeinit(const int reason)
{
   EventKillTimer();
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Timer function                                                   |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void OnTimer()
{
   datetime currentTime = TimeCurrent();
   MqlDateTime dt;
   TimeToStruct(currentTime, dt);
   
   // 1. Management: Run Trailing Stop logic constantly
   ManageExits();

   // 2. Entry: Run once per day at Open_Hour
   MqlDateTime lastDt;
   TimeToStruct(lastTradeDay, lastDt);

   if(dt.hour == Open_Hour && dt.day_of_year != lastDt.day_of_year)
   {
      lastTradeDay = currentTime;
      RunDailyAnalysis();
   }
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Main Strategy Logic (With Optimization)                          |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void RunDailyAnalysis()
{
   for(int i = 0; i <= (int)USDCHF; i++) 
   {
      ENUM_STRATEGY_SYMBOLS sym_enum = (ENUM_STRATEGY_SYMBOLS)i;
      string symbol = EnumToString(sym_enum);
      
      if(!SymbolSelect(symbol, true)) continue;    
      
      // --- DYNAMIC PARAMETER SELECTION ---
      int current_beta_period = Beta_Period; // Default
      
      if(Do_Self_Optimize)
      {
         // Find the best performing period over the last X days
         int best_period = GetBestBetaPeriod(symbol, Bond_Symbol);
         if(best_period > 0) 
         {
             current_beta_period = best_period;
             // Print(symbol, " Optimized Beta Period: ", current_beta_period);
         }
      }
      // -----------------------------------
      
      // A. Get Statistical Metrics
      double beta = 0.0;
      double correlation = 0.0;
      double bond_ret_lag = 0.0;
      
      bool data_ok = CalculateMetrics(symbol, Bond_Symbol, current_beta_period, beta, correlation, bond_ret_lag);
      if(!data_ok) continue;

      // B. FILTER: Statistical Significance
      if(MathAbs(correlation) < Min_Correlation) continue;
      
      // C. FILTER: Theoretical Validity (Econ Theory Check)
      if(Use_Theory_Filter) {
         if(!IsTheoreticallyValid(symbol, beta)) continue;
      }
      
      // D. Forecast
      double forecast = beta * bond_ret_lag;
      
      // E. Execution
      ExecuteEntry(symbol, forecast, beta);
   }
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| WFO: Find Best Beta Period based on recent history               |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int GetBestBetaPeriod(string sym, string bond)
{
   int best_p = -1;
   double max_profit = -99999.0;
   
   // 1. Bulk download history
   // Needed: Lookback Window + Max Beta Period + Buffers
   int req_bars = Opt_Lookback_Days + Opt_Beta_End + 10;
   double close_sym[], close_bond[];
   
   // Use Series flag to make index 0 the most recent
   if(CopyClose(sym, PERIOD_D1, 1, req_bars, close_sym) < req_bars) return -1;
   if(CopyClose(bond, PERIOD_D1, 1, req_bars, close_bond) < req_bars) return -1;
   
   ArraySetAsSeries(close_sym, true);
   ArraySetAsSeries(close_bond, true);
   
   // 2. Iterate through parameters
   for(int p = Opt_Beta_Start; p <= Opt_Beta_End; p += Opt_Beta_Step)
   {
      double simulated_profit = 0.0;
      
      // 3. Simulate performance over the Lookback Window
      // Loop from 'Opt_Lookback_Days' ago up to yesterday (index 0)
      for(int day = Opt_Lookback_Days - 1; day >= 0; day--)
      {
         // day = 0 is "yesterday" (the most recent completed bar in this history slice)
         // We pretend we are at 'day' and need to calculate Beta using data BEFORE 'day'
         
         double mean_y=0, mean_x=0;
         double vec_y[], vec_x[];
         ArrayResize(vec_y, p);
         ArrayResize(vec_x, p);
         
         bool math_error = false;
         
         // Fill vectors for Beta Calculation
         for(int k=0; k<p; k++) {
             // Index logic: 
             // Target Day: 'day'
             // Data used: 'day + 1' to 'day + p'
             
             int idx_curr = day + 1 + k;
             int idx_prev = idx_curr + 1;
             
             if(close_sym[idx_prev] == 0 || close_bond[idx_prev] == 0) { math_error=true; break; }
             
             double ret_y = MathLog(close_sym[idx_curr] / close_sym[idx_prev]);
             // Lagged Bond: Bond(t-1)
             double ret_x = MathLog(close_bond[idx_curr+1] / close_bond[idx_prev+1]); 
             
             vec_y[k] = ret_y;
             vec_x[k] = ret_x;
             mean_y += ret_y;
             mean_x += ret_x;
         }
         if(math_error) continue;
         
         mean_y /= p;
         mean_x /= p;
         
         double cov=0, var_x=0;
         for(int k=0; k<p; k++) {
             cov   += (vec_x[k] - mean_x) * (vec_y[k] - mean_y);
             var_x += (vec_x[k] - mean_x) * (vec_x[k] - mean_x);
         }
         
         double beta = (var_x > 0.00000001) ? cov/var_x : 0;
         
         // Predict 'day' returns
         // Bond move that precedes 'day'
         double bond_ret_predict = MathLog(close_bond[day+1] / close_bond[day+2]);
         double forecast = beta * bond_ret_predict;
         
         // Actual Result of 'day'
         double actual_sym_ret = MathLog(close_sym[day] / close_sym[day+1]);
         
         // Simulate PnL
         if(forecast > 0) simulated_profit += actual_sym_ret; // Long
         if(forecast < 0) simulated_profit -= actual_sym_ret; // Short
      }
      
      // 4. Store Best Result
      if(simulated_profit > max_profit) {
         max_profit = simulated_profit;
         best_p = p;
      }
   }
   
   return best_p;
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Helper: Check if Stats match Econ Theory                         |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
bool IsTheoreticallyValid(string symbol, double beta)
{
   // Theory: TLT Down (Yields Up) -> USD Strong
   if(StringFind(symbol, "USD") == 0) { // USDxxx
      if(beta < 0) return true; 
      return false;              
   }
   else { // xxxUSD
      if(beta > 0) return true; 
      return false;
   }
   return true; 
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Execute Entry with Risk Sizing                                   |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void ExecuteEntry(string symbol, double forecast, double beta_val)
{
   if(PositionSelect(symbol)) return; // One trade per pair
   if(forecast == 0.0) return;
   
   bool isBuy  = (forecast > 0);
   ENUM_ORDER_TYPE type = isBuy ? ORDER_TYPE_BUY : ORDER_TYPE_SELL;
   
   double atr = GetATR_Value(symbol);
   if(atr <= 0) return;
   
   double current_price = isBuy ? SymbolInfoDouble(symbol, SYMBOL_ASK) : SymbolInfoDouble(symbol, SYMBOL_BID);
   
   // SL/TP Calc
   double sl_dist = atr * SL_ATR_Mult;
   double tp_dist = atr * TP_ATR_Mult;
   double sl = isBuy ? current_price - sl_dist : current_price + sl_dist;
   double tp = isBuy ? current_price + tp_dist : current_price - tp_dist;
   
   int digits = (int)SymbolInfoInteger(symbol, SYMBOL_DIGITS);
   sl = NormalizeDouble(sl, digits);
   tp = NormalizeDouble(tp, digits);
   
   // Volume Calc
   double volume = CalculateRiskVolume(symbol, sl_dist, Risk_Percent);
   if(volume <= 0) return;
   
   string comment = StringFormat("B:%.2f", beta_val);
   Trader.PositionOpen(symbol, type, volume, current_price, sl, tp, comment);
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Math: Beta & Correlation Calculation                             |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
bool CalculateMetrics(string sym_y, string sym_x, int period, double &out_beta, double &out_corr, double &out_x_ret)
{
   int bars = period + 2;
   double close_y[], close_x[];
   
   if(CopyClose(sym_y, PERIOD_D1, 1, bars, close_y) < bars) return false;
   if(CopyClose(sym_x, PERIOD_D1, 1, bars, close_x) < bars) return false;
   
   double vec_y[], vec_x_lag[];
   ArrayResize(vec_y, period);
   ArrayResize(vec_x_lag, period);
   
   // Log Returns: Y(t) vs X(t-1)
   for(int i=0; i<period; i++)
   {
      int idx_curr = bars - 1 - i; 
      int idx_prev = idx_curr - 1;
      int idx_x_curr = bars - 1 - i - 1; 
      int idx_x_prev = idx_x_curr - 1;
      
      if(close_y[idx_prev] == 0 || close_x[idx_x_prev] == 0) return false;

      vec_y[i]       = MathLog(close_y[idx_curr] / close_y[idx_prev]);
      vec_x_lag[i]   = MathLog(close_x[idx_x_curr] / close_x[idx_x_prev]);
   }
   
   double mean_y = MathMean(vec_y);
   double mean_x = MathMean(vec_x_lag);
   
   double cov = 0, var_x = 0, var_y = 0;
   for(int i=0; i<period; i++)
   {
      double dy = vec_y[i] - mean_y;
      double dx = vec_x_lag[i] - mean_x;
      cov   += dx * dy;
      var_x += dx * dx;
      var_y += dy * dy;
   }
   
   if(var_x == 0 || var_y == 0) return false;
   
   out_beta = cov / var_x;
   out_corr = cov / MathSqrt(var_x * var_y);
   
   // Current Predictor: X(t)
   out_x_ret = MathLog(close_x[bars-1] / close_x[bars-2]);
   
   return true;
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Logic: Trailing Stop                                             |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void ManageExits()
{
   if(!Use_Trailing) return;

   for(int i=PositionsTotal()-1; i>=0; i--)
   {
      if(PositionGetSymbol(i) == Bond_Symbol) continue;
      ulong ticket = PositionGetTicket(i);
      if(PositionGetInteger(POSITION_MAGIC) != EA_MAGIC) continue;
      
      string symbol = PositionGetSymbol(i);
      double atr = GetATR_Value(symbol);
      if(atr <= 0) continue;
      
      double sl_price   = PositionGetDouble(POSITION_SL);
      double open_price = PositionGetDouble(POSITION_PRICE_OPEN);
      double current_price = PositionGetDouble(POSITION_PRICE_CURRENT);
      long type = PositionGetInteger(POSITION_TYPE);
      int digits = (int)SymbolInfoInteger(symbol, SYMBOL_DIGITS);
      
      double activation = atr * Trail_Trigger_ATR;
      double step       = atr * Trail_Step_ATR;
      double sl_dist    = atr * SL_ATR_Mult;
      
      if(type == POSITION_TYPE_BUY)
      {
         if(current_price > open_price + activation) {
            double new_sl = current_price - sl_dist;
            if(new_sl > sl_price + step || sl_price == 0) {
               if(new_sl < open_price) new_sl = open_price; // Secure Breakeven
               Trader.PositionModify(ticket, NormalizeDouble(new_sl, digits), PositionGetDouble(POSITION_TP));
            }
         }
      }
      else if(type == POSITION_TYPE_SELL)
      {
         if(current_price < open_price - activation) {
            double new_sl = current_price + sl_dist;
            if(new_sl < sl_price - step || sl_price == 0) {
               if(new_sl > open_price) new_sl = open_price;
               Trader.PositionModify(ticket, NormalizeDouble(new_sl, digits), PositionGetDouble(POSITION_TP));
            }
         }
      }
   }
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Risk: Calculate Lots based on % Equity                           |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
double CalculateRiskVolume(string symbol, double sl_distance_price, double risk_pct)
{
   if(sl_distance_price <= 0) return 0.0;
   
   double equity = AccountInfoDouble(ACCOUNT_EQUITY);
   double risk_amount = equity * (risk_pct / 100.0);
   
   double tick_value = SymbolInfoDouble(symbol, SYMBOL_TRADE_TICK_VALUE);
   double tick_size  = SymbolInfoDouble(symbol, SYMBOL_TRADE_TICK_SIZE);
   
   if(tick_value == 0 || tick_size == 0) return 0.0;
   
   double loss_per_lot = (sl_distance_price / tick_size) * tick_value;
   if(loss_per_lot == 0) return 0.0;
   
   double lots = risk_amount / loss_per_lot;
   
   double min_vol = SymbolInfoDouble(symbol, SYMBOL_VOLUME_MIN);
   double max_vol = SymbolInfoDouble(symbol, SYMBOL_VOLUME_MAX);
   double step_vol = SymbolInfoDouble(symbol, SYMBOL_VOLUME_STEP);
   
   lots = MathFloor(lots / step_vol) * step_vol;
   
   if(lots < min_vol) return 0.0;
   if(lots > max_vol) lots = max_vol;
   
   return lots;
}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Utility: Get ATR                                                 |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
double GetATR_Value(string symbol)
{
   int handle = iATR(symbol, PERIOD_D1, ATR_Period);
   if(handle == INVALID_HANDLE) return 0.0;
   
   double val[1];
   if(CopyBuffer(handle, 0, 1, 1, val) < 1) {
      IndicatorRelease(handle);
      return 0.0;
   }
   IndicatorRelease(handle);
   return val[0];
}