Warrior_EA/Money/MoneyIntelligent.mqh

//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//|                                                       Warrior_EA |
//|                                                     AnimateDread |
//|                                                                  |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
#include "MoneyRiskBase.mqh"
#include "..\Variables\ConfidenceBridge.mqh"
// Quarter-Kelly: only a quarter of the theoretical edge-optimal fraction is ever applied.
// Full Kelly is well documented as too volatile for live capital; quarter-Kelly is a
// conservative institutional default, deliberately chosen here for prop-firm-evaluation-style
// accounts that also carry hard daily-loss/drawdown limits (Signals\SignalRiskGuard.mqh).
#define KELLY_FRACTION_MULTIPLIER 0.25
// Floor so a thin/negative-edge estimate never scales risk% all the way to zero on a trade
// that already passed the signal's own entry threshold and Min_Risk_Reward_Ratio filter -
// it only ever gets sized down to a minimum, never fully skipped by Money.
#define KELLY_MIN_RISK_FRACTION   0.1
class CMoneyIntelligent : public CMoneyRiskBase
  {
protected:
   bool              m_use_ai_lot;         // true: scale risk % via the Kelly criterion below
   int               m_confidence_source;  // CONFIDENCE_SOURCE underlying int (0=AI, 1=DB, 2=Blended)
public:
   // Constructor
                     CMoneyIntelligent() : m_use_ai_lot(false), m_confidence_source(0) {}

   void              UseAIConfidenceLotSizing(bool value) { m_use_ai_lot = value; }
   void              ConfidenceSource(int value) { m_confidence_source = value; }

protected:
   //--- CMoneyRiskBase::CalculateLotSize() hook - see CMoneyRiskBase's declaration comment.
   virtual double    AdjustRiskAmount(double riskAmount) override;
  };
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Kelly-criterion risk% scaling - only active when Use_AI_Lot_Sizing|
//| is on. Unifies what used to be two disconnected mechanisms (a     |
//| linear confidence-only scale here, plus an unrelated trade-       |
//| history streak multiplier in a since-removed AdjustLotSize()      |
//| override) into a single edge-based model that uses everything    |
//| the NN and the trade's own risk math already know:                |
//|  p = estimated win probability, derived from the empirically      |
//|      calibrated AI/DB confidence magnitude (see                   |
//|      ExpertSignalAIBase::CalibratedConfidenceMagnitude()'s         |
//|      m_confidenceCalScale - it's scaled against real OOS accuracy,|
//|      not a raw uncalibrated softmax value) mapped from [0,1] onto |
//|      [0.5,1.0] - zero confidence is a coin flip, full confidence  |
//|      is treated as near-certain.                                  |
//|  b = this specific trade's real reward:risk ratio, bridged from   |
//|      CExpertSignalCustom::OpenParams() via g_TradeRewardRiskRatio |
//|      (Variables\ConfidenceBridge.mqh) - always >= Min_Risk_Reward |
//|      _Ratio, since OpenParams() rejects thinner setups before     |
//|      Money is ever consulted.                                     |
//| f* = p - (1-p)/b is the Kelly-optimal fraction; only               |
//| KELLY_FRACTION_MULTIPLIER of it is used (see its own comment),    |
//| then clamped to [KELLY_MIN_RISK_FRACTION, 1.0] so this can only    |
//| ever scale the configured Money_Risk_Percent DOWN from its input  |
//| ceiling, never above it - the same invariant this method has      |
//| always guaranteed.                                                 |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
double CMoneyIntelligent::AdjustRiskAmount(double riskAmount)
  {
   if(!m_use_ai_lot)
      return riskAmount;
   if(g_TradeRewardRiskRatio <= 0.0)
      return riskAmount * KELLY_MIN_RISK_FRACTION; // bridge not populated yet - defensive floor
   double confidence = CombinedConfidence(m_confidence_source);
   double p = 0.5 + 0.5 * confidence;
   double b = g_TradeRewardRiskRatio;
   double fKelly = MathMax(0.0, MathMin(1.0, p - (1.0 - p) / b));
   double fraction = MathMax(KELLY_MIN_RISK_FRACTION, MathMin(1.0, fKelly * KELLY_FRACTION_MULTIPLIER));
   return riskAmount * fraction;
  }
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+