Warrior_EA/Expert/Persistence
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AnimateDread d9092a2408 fix(vote): persist the member's skill verdict - a converged model was ruled no-skill on every restart
SP500 resumed converged at era 136 with its tier ladder correctly restored and still
swept 4999 bars reporting "0 had a snapshot, drew 0 arrow(s)" while the other five
charts drew 221-312.

HasDemonstratedEdge() - added with the no-skill exclusion - compares m_eraStatPrecPct
against m_eraStatChancePct. Both are written once per era by EnsembleStashEraStats. A
converged model runs no eras, so after a restart both sat at their -1 ctor defaults,
every member was ruled no-skill, ReconstructionWeight() returned 0 for all four, and
the overlay divisor was zero on every bar. Exactly the failure the WST7 ladder
persistence fixed one level down: the ladder says how much a member votes, this says
whether it may.

RankTiersFromOos already computes the pair (pooled holdout precision and the
zero-skill reference rate) and now records it as the CERTIFIED edge. That path is
reached by the era end AND by the deployed replay, which is the only measurement a
converged model will ever make. Persisted as WST8; HasDemonstratedEdge() prefers the
era pair and falls back to it.

The census line also had to be fixed: it reported "NOT ONE of those bars had a single
member snapshot ... no enrolled member has published m_overlaySigSnap" for a condition
that was purely a skill verdict. The snapshots were there. It now counts the two causes
separately and names the one that fired.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-26 16:53:16 -04:00
..
AIBasePersistenceView.mqh fix(vote): persist the member's skill verdict - a converged model was ruled no-skill on every restart 2026-08-26 16:53:16 -04:00
AIBasePersistenceViewImpl.mqh fix(vote): persist the member's skill verdict - a converged model was ruled no-skill on every restart 2026-08-26 16:53:16 -04:00
IPersistenceView.mqh fix(vote): persist the member's skill verdict - a converged model was ruled no-skill on every restart 2026-08-26 16:53:16 -04:00
ModelPersistence.mqh fix(vote): persist the member's skill verdict - a converged model was ruled no-skill on every restart 2026-08-26 16:53:16 -04:00