Wires the screen_ivol survivors (41d726c). New per-symbol `ivolSeries` in the
catalog feeds a generic `ivol_chg5` feature from whichever CBOE vol index the
instrument owns, so one code path serves every symbol:
XAUUSD + ivol_chg5 (GVZ) - MI|vol 0.01971 p=0.002, 3.6x the positive
control and 4.6x the vix_chg5 gold had alone.
vix_chg5 KEPT: this appends, it does not replace.
EURUSD + vix_chg5 - screened, incremental p<=0.006, and its first
real feature ever (it had only exploratory EIA).
USDJPY + vix_chg5 - screened, incremental.
NAS100 / US30 / US2000 + ivol_chg5 (VXN / VXD / RVX) - exploratory by analogy.
XTIUSD / XBRUSD + ivol_chg5 (OVX) - exploratory, no oil bars to screen yet.
SP500 unchanged - its features already screened clean and VXN/VIX3M edging
out VIX is a correlated within-family best-of-N, not a real ranking.
On EURUSD/USDJPY the screen put VXD marginally above VIX, but they are
near-duplicates and the gap sits inside the noise, so the tie is broken by a
rule rather than by the number: take the series already in the fetch path.
Also fixes a real collector bug: fetch_vintaged built ALFRED realtime windows
out to 2028, and FRED rejects realtime_end after today - so every REVISED
series (unemployment, CPI, GDP: exactly the ones needing the vintage path) was
unreachable, while unrevised series never noticed because they bail earlier.
UNRATE and CPIAUCSL now return first prints correctly.
Adds screen_macro.py (rates, curve, breakevens, Fed/ECB policy differential,
plus monthly country stats) with a `distinct` column that reports the honest
effective sample size - a monthly series pasted onto D1 bars is a step
function, and that column is what decides whether it can clear a gate at all.
Not yet run: the Market Data bars directory is being regenerated right now.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- fred.py: ALFRED output_type=4 first prints, chunked realtime windows
(2000-vintage cap), unrevised-series fallback (published=observed+1d);
NFCI excluded from features (revised, no vintage archive)
- eia.py: 4 weekly petroleum series on disk (1982->now)
- screen.py: as-of joined alt features vs forward 5-bar range/ATR on D1,
3x3 MI, circular-shift null, family-wise max bar, +/- controls
First readings (199 perms): SP500 vix_chg5 MI 0.047 (1.5x the positive
control) + usd_chg5 clear family bar; USDJPY 4 COT positioning features
clear family bar BEATING the positive control; XAUUSD vix_chg5 tops control
but sub-family-bar; EURUSD positive control FAILS -> table void per the
excursion-target rule, needs investigation.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
