SniperGold_ML/docs/P3_S22_3_POPULATION_REDERIVATION.md

# P3-S22.3 — POPULATION REDERIVATION

```text
Date       : 2026-08-26
Session    : P3-S22.3 — RESEARCH M30 CONSTRUCTION REPAIR &
             POPULATION REDERIVATION
Status     : COMPLETE (research-only; corrected population re-derived)
Policy     : docs/CODE_VERIFICATION_AND_SILENT_BUG_POLICY_v1.md
```

This document reports the exact change the corrected M30 UTC construction
makes to the historical Candidate Setup population and the frozen feature /
label rows.

## Input

- Feed: frozen XAUUSD M15, 2017-01-03 .. 2026-07-21 UTC scope (197,032 feed /
  194,985 in-scope bars).
- Frozen chain: vectorized CHoCH/OB/FVG + F3SetupEngine (canonical == runtime,
  P3-S17R2 FULL PARITY). Only the M30 gate differs (committed index-pair vs
  corrected UTC); H4, M15, sweep, CHoCH, zones, F3 registry unchanged.

## Frozen baseline (reproduced exactly)

```text
created            : 694
in-scope           : 686
per-bar mismatch   : 0
leads 594 + follow-ons 92 = 686
WIN 190 / LOSS 469 / UNRESOLVED 22 / AMBIGUOUS 5
```

## Corrected population (only the M30 gate substituted)

```text
created            : 717
in-scope           : 707
leads 610 + follow-ons 97 = 707
WIN 201 / LOSS 472 / UNRESOLVED 28 / AMBIGUOUS 6
```

## Candidate identity comparison (stable chain key)

| identity | count |
|---|---|
| shared | 484 |
| old-only | 202 |
| corrected-only | 223 |
| corrected in-scope total | 707 |

## M30 gate summary

| metric | value |
|---|---|
| nonzero (old / corrected) | 180,664 / 180,774 |
| gate diff full | 38,399 (19.49 %) |
| gate diff scope | 37,651 (19.31 %) |

Mechanism (spot-checked): shared 484 identities have IDENTICAL creation-bar
gate (0 % changed) and only ~10 % of window bars differ; the 202 old-only were
formed under a DIFFERENT creation-bar gate (~62 %) so their chain no longer
completes; the 223 corrected-only are formed under different gates instead.

## Label / feature impact (frozen contracts)

- Every shared identity has an IDENTICAL label (484/484).
- Label class counts change (WIN 201 / LOSS 472 / UNRESOLVED 28 / AMBIGUOUS 6).
- Feature rows: 202 removed (old-only), 484 retained (shared), 223 added
  (corrected-only). No feature-contract change.

## Status

The corrected M30 construction MATERIALLY changes the Candidate Setup
population (686 -> 707) and the feature/label rows it populates. Production
MQL5 is unaffected (runtime reads broker UTC M30). The frozen old population
remains the historical reference; the corrected population is a CANDIDATE
corrected research dataset pending a separate validation phase.

*End of P3-S22.3 population rederivation.*