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SniperGold_ML/docs/P3_S22_3_POPULATION_REDERIVATION.md

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P3-S22.3 — POPULATION REDERIVATION

Date       : 2026-08-26
Session    : P3-S22.3 — RESEARCH M30 CONSTRUCTION REPAIR &
             POPULATION REDERIVATION
Status     : COMPLETE (research-only; corrected population re-derived)
Policy     : docs/CODE_VERIFICATION_AND_SILENT_BUG_POLICY_v1.md

This document reports the exact change the corrected M30 UTC construction makes to the historical Candidate Setup population and the frozen feature / label rows.

Input

  • Feed: frozen XAUUSD M15, 2017-01-03 .. 2026-07-21 UTC scope (197,032 feed / 194,985 in-scope bars).
  • Frozen chain: vectorized CHoCH/OB/FVG + F3SetupEngine (canonical == runtime, P3-S17R2 FULL PARITY). Only the M30 gate differs (committed index-pair vs corrected UTC); H4, M15, sweep, CHoCH, zones, F3 registry unchanged.

Frozen baseline (reproduced exactly)

created            : 694
in-scope           : 686
per-bar mismatch   : 0
leads 594 + follow-ons 92 = 686
WIN 190 / LOSS 469 / UNRESOLVED 22 / AMBIGUOUS 5

Corrected population (only the M30 gate substituted)

created            : 717
in-scope           : 707
leads 610 + follow-ons 97 = 707
WIN 201 / LOSS 472 / UNRESOLVED 28 / AMBIGUOUS 6

Candidate identity comparison (stable chain key)

identity count
shared 484
old-only 202
corrected-only 223
corrected in-scope total 707

M30 gate summary

metric value
nonzero (old / corrected) 180,664 / 180,774
gate diff full 38,399 (19.49 %)
gate diff scope 37,651 (19.31 %)

Mechanism (spot-checked): shared 484 identities have IDENTICAL creation-bar gate (0 % changed) and only ~10 % of window bars differ; the 202 old-only were formed under a DIFFERENT creation-bar gate (~62 %) so their chain no longer completes; the 223 corrected-only are formed under different gates instead.

Label / feature impact (frozen contracts)

  • Every shared identity has an IDENTICAL label (484/484).
  • Label class counts change (WIN 201 / LOSS 472 / UNRESOLVED 28 / AMBIGUOUS 6).
  • Feature rows: 202 removed (old-only), 484 retained (shared), 223 added (corrected-only). No feature-contract change.

Status

The corrected M30 construction MATERIALLY changes the Candidate Setup population (686 -> 707) and the feature/label rows it populates. Production MQL5 is unaffected (runtime reads broker UTC M30). The frozen old population remains the historical reference; the corrected population is a CANDIDATE corrected research dataset pending a separate validation phase.

End of P3-S22.3 population rederivation.