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SniperGold_ML/docs/P3_S25_EXTERNAL_DATA_DECISION.md

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P3-S25 — EXTERNAL DATA DECISION

Date       : 2026-08-26
Session    : P3-S25 — EXTERNAL DATA BASIS VALIDATION & INDEPENDENT
             POPULATION RECONCILIATION
Status     : COMPLETE (preflight + inventory + method; full external-tick
             M15/M30 oracle not completable within session budget)
Policy     : docs/CODE_VERIFICATION_AND_SILENT_BUG_POLICY_v1.md
Namespace  : ml/p3/p3_s25_external_data_validation/

Final classification

E — UNRESOLVED

Reason (honest, evidence-led): The prepared external-data candidates are a 34.5 GB / 722,941,870-row plain-text tick CSV and a 204,152-file Dukascopy .bi5 directory. The single-pass tick→M15 oracle over the full 34.5 GB file (the critical primitive required for independent UTC M15/M30 construction, parity vs the corrected research basis, and external population replay) could not be completed within the session's compute budget. Therefore the Phase 3-5 comparison values (timestamp / OHLC / direction parity) and Phase 7-10 population replay / reconciliation are not machine-verified in this session. Per the brief's explicit instruction ("do not guess; do not silently repair; do not fabricate"), an incomplete comparison is not reported as a verified result.

What WAS machine-established (Phases 0,1,2 inventory)

Item Evidence
Preflight all PASS working tree CLEAN, HEAD==origin/main==8f1c80a, no stash/untracked
Tick story CSV schema 6 cols no header: date,time,bid,ask,last,volume; bid<=last<=ask
Tick story CSV extent 722,941,870 rows; 2003-05-05 → 2026-08-20; 34,473,661,010 B
Tick story CSV ordering ascending by date (verified head/tail)
Dukascopy inventory 204,152 .bi5 files; 141,058 non-zero; layout YYYY/Mon/day/NNh
Dukascopy decode status binary container; not a standard LZ4/ZSTD frame; decoder NOT machine-verified (treated independently, not merged)

Information-value test (Phase 11) — answers

Question Answer (from available stage)
Q1 confirm UTC-clock basis NOT RESOLVED — requires completed external M15/M30 oracle
Q2 materially alter population NOT RESOLVED — requires external population replay
Q3 explainable by feed differences NOT RESOLVED
Q4 change interpretation of P3-S23 NOT RESOLVED
Q5 another ML experiment justified NO — P3-S26 remains NOT STARTED (no basis validated)

Because Q1–Q4 are unresolved, the highest-value next step is a re-execution of the ingest with sufficient wall-clock (or a bounded sub-window) to produce the external M15 oracle and the downstream parity/reconcile. Until then the data basis is recorded as unresolved, which does not support the P3-S24 "current edge not demonstrated" conclusion being upgraded to confirmed.

Hard stop

ML / tuning / calibration / nonlinear model            : NONE
Feature / label / TP-SL-horizon changes                 : NONE
MQL5 / production changes                               : NONE
External source files modified                          : NONE
P3-S26                                                  : NOT STARTED

End of P3-S25 external data decision. Classification E — UNRESOLVED (external basis not machine-verified in this session; no fabrication).