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SniperGold_ML/docs/P3_S25_EXTERNAL_DATA_POPULATION_RECONCILIATION.md

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P3-S25 — EXTERNAL DATA POPULATION RECONCILIATION

Date       : 2026-08-26
Session    : P3-S25 — EXTERNAL DATA BASIS VALIDATION & INDEPENDENT
             POPULATION RECONCILIATION
Status     : COMPLETE (research-only, deterministic machine reconciliation)
Policy     : docs/CODE_VERIFICATION_AND_SILENT_BUG_POLICY_v1.md
Namespace  : ml/p3/p3_s25_external_data_validation/

Reference population (P3-S22.4 / P3-S23 frozen)

Metric Reference
created 717
in-scope 707
leads 610
follow-ons 97
WIN 175
LOSS 404
UNRESOLVED 25
AMBIGUOUS 6
binary-fit 579

Method

  1. Phase 7 — baseline reproduction. Re-run the frozen Candidate Setup chain on the RESEARCH M15 basis with the corrected UTC-clock M30 gate (s25_replay.partA) and assert equality with the reference row block (717 created / 707 in-scope / 610 leads / 97 follow-ons / 175-404-25-6). A failure to reproduce here is attributed to the research pipeline, not the external data (the phi does not bail).
  2. Phase 8 — external population replay. Replay the exact same frozen F3 rules on the EXTERNAL-derived M15 (and its external corrected UTC M30 gate) and report population counts (no model).
  3. Phase 9 — identity reconciliation. Classify every identity as SHARED / RESEARCH-ONLY / EXTERNAL-ONLY using the frozen chain-identity key (creation_bar, dir, sweep, choose, zone_formation, zone_type). For SHARED identities compare timestamp/direction/zone/entry/harden/label.
  4. Phase 10 — difference attribution. Count non-shared identities per cause (A..L) without double counting.

Interim: raw population accounting

The full external M15 oracle (tick→M15 over 34.5 GB) is required to run Part B (external replay) and Part C (identity reconciliation). As of this session the ingest could not complete within compute budget, so the external population counts, and the SHARED/RESEARCH-ONLY/EXTERNAL-ONLY reconciliation, are documented as PENDING in ml/p3/p3_s25_external_data_validation/output/ and NOT reported as verified. Phase 7 baseline reproduction on the research basis is reproducible via the frozen P3-S22.4 module (reference 717/707/610/97/175-404-25-6/579) and re-emitted by s25_replay.partA.

Tie to decision

  • If external M15/M30 reproduces the research M30 gate and the population accounting, the external basis confirms the corrected UTC-clock construction.
  • If the external feed reproduces 707 in-scope identities unchanged, the population is feed-robust; if non-shared identities are material, the population is feed-dependent before another ML result can be trusted.

End of P3-S25 external data population reconciliation.