SniperGold_ML/docs/CURRENT_DECISION_GATE.md

# CURRENT DECISION GATE

```text
Document type : GOVERNANCE / OPERATIONAL
DOCUMENT ROLE : AUTHORIZATION
Created       : 2026-08-28 (P3-GOV-1)
Revision      : v10 (2026-08-31 P3-S25.1O close-out: factual cursor synchronized to canonical post-chunk-165 checkpoint; authorization unchanged; CHUNK 166 remains NOT AUTHORIZED)
AUTHORITY     : AUTHORIZATION / PROHIBITION ONLY. This gate defines what may be
                executed, what is explicitly prohibited, and whether owner
                authorization exists. It MUST NOT redefine factual checkpoint
                values. Where it presents the current cursor it MUST reference
                the canonical checkpoint and MUST NOT invent a cursor.
PURPOSE       : A concise gate an AI Assistant reads in EVERY new session.
                If the owner changes the authorized direction, that is recorded HERE.
```

## 1. CURRENT FACTUAL CURSOR

Reference: canonical machine checkpoint
`ml/p3/p3_s251_external_ingest/output/s251_real_checkpoint.json`. Values below
are copied from that checkpoint by machine (P3-GOV-3), not invented here. This
cursor is FACT, not authorization.

```text
run_id                : P3_S251_REAL_TICK_RUN_001
status                : CHUNK_COMMITTED
last_completed_chunk  = 165
current_chunk         = 165
next_chunk            = 166  (derived: last_completed_chunk + 1)
next_byte_offset      = 3946840483  (= next_byte_start)
cumulative rows       = 85,675,511 | M15 222,650 | M30 112,361
SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE   = 24 MiB (P3-S25.1C; no dynamic-chunk change)
SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN  = NOT ESTABLISHED (8 under the tested benchmark workflow = capability evidence only; NOT operational policy)
full ingestion        = NOT COMPLETE (34.5 GB / 722,941,870-row dataset)
```

## 2. CURRENT AUTHORIZATION

```text
Owner decision status (as of 2026-08-31 P3-S25.1O close-out): NO new execution
authorization has been granted by this gate. The P3-S25.1O workload
(chunks 144-165) changed only the FACTUAL cursor (section 1); it granted
no authorization. The P3-S25.1O session prompt was the explicit owner
authorization for exactly ONE 512 MiB / 8-worker real workload
continuing from next_byte_start 3409969532 (protocol v2 section 7); it
authorizes nothing beyond that workload.

CHUNK 166                 = NOT AUTHORIZED
Real Chunk 166 execution  = NOT AUTHORIZED by this phase
SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN     = NOT ESTABLISHED as operational policy (8 under the tested benchmark workflow = capability evidence only); P3-S25.1D = benchmark capability established as documented; operational activation still requires an explicit owner decision; multi-chunk turns NOT authorized
SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE      = 24 MiB (no dynamic-chunk change authorized)
Any next action          = requires explicit owner authorization
```

No current-state document, handover, report, checkpoint cursor or old prompt
constitutes authorization. Only an explicit owner decision recorded in this
gate (or the current session prompt) authorizes execution (protocol v2 sec. 7).

## 3. PROHIBITIONS (until separately authorized)

```text
- Modify frozen contracts (F1/F2/F3/F4), Candidate Setup, FEATURE_CONTRACT,
  label contract v1, legacy MLP.
- Any dynamic-chunk change (SAFE_MAX stays 24 MiB).
- Train / evaluate / calibrate / tune / add features / change labels/TP/SL/H to
  force a result. No result-driven tuning.
- Rewrite, delete, or retroactively amend any historical report / CSV / JSON.
- Modify the real source checkpoint outside the allowed ingestion update.
- Read/process the data files other than via an authorized ingest step.
- Use Dukascopy unless an authorized phase adds it.
- Change production MQL5.
- Run multi-chunk-per-turn ingestion or set SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN.
- Process CHUNK 166 (or any later real-ingestion chunk) beyond the single workload authorized by the current session prompt. Treating the factual cursor as authorization is prohibited: next_chunk = 166 is a FACT, never an authorization.
In every case consult docs/CODE_VERIFICATION_AND_SILENT_BUG_POLICY_v1.md.
```

## 4. NEXT DECISION REQUIRED (exact owner decision needed)

```text
The owner must decide ONE of the following; nothing else is authorized:
  (a) authorize P3-S25.1 Stage-B — CHUNK 166 ONLY
      run_id = P3_S251_REAL_TICK_RUN_001 ; chunk_id = 166
      byte_offset = 3,946,840,483 ; at SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE = 24 MiB ; or
  (b) close out the remaining P3-S25.1D multi-chunk turn benchmark and record SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN as owner policy (remains NOT ESTABLISHED until then).
Until that decision is recorded here, CHUNK 166 = NOT AUTHORIZED.
```

## 5. Context (project question and evidence — for orientation)

Current project question: is the current absence of a demonstrated predictive
edge (corrected UTC-clock M30 basis) GENUINE, or a residual artifact of a
broker-feed / data-construction basis mismatch that was never independently
re-validated? Concretely: can the corrected (UTC-clock M30) SniperGold research
construction and the corrected Candidate Setup population (707 in-scope / 610
leads / 579 binary-fit) be reproduced from an INDEPENDENT external-data basis
(Tickstory 34.5 GB XAUUSD tick CSV)?

Established evidence:

```text
- P3-S20 frozen walk-forward pooled ROC-AUC 0.5792 on the OLD (faulty) population:
  FROZEN HISTORICAL (does NOT reflect current basis).
- P3-S22.3 corrected the research M30 construction to fixed UTC-clock buckets
  (100% oracle, 12 regression, 6 mutation, 0 mismatch). CORRECTED BASIS.
- P3-S22.4 validated the corrected population (707 = 610 leads + 97 follow-on;
  175 WIN / 404 LOSS / 25 UNRESOLVED / 6 AMBIGUOUS). VERIFIED (8/8 leakage).
- P3-S23 corrected pre-registered ML baseline: pooled ROC-AUC 0.5235
  (95% CI [0.450, 0.592] contains 0.5); fold3 collapsed (0.464); LogLoss/Brier
  worse than constant prior. VERIFIED.
- P3-S24: classification D — CURRENT EDGE NOT DEMONSTRATED. VERIFIED.
- P3-S25.1C: dynamic chunk-size invariance proven (12/24/48/64 MiB
  byte-identical); SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE = 24 MiB; mutation detection 10/10.
- Real-source ingestion run P3_S251_REAL_TICK_RUN_001: chunks 0-165 committed
  (last_completed_chunk = 165; next chunk 166; next byte offset = 3,946,840,483); CHUNK 166 remains NOT AUTHORIZED.
```

Not established:

```text
- The external Tickstory tick->M15/M30 oracle has NOT yet been run across the
  full 34.5 GB / 722,941,870 rows (P3-S25 late: E - UNRESOLVED).
- External Candidate Setup population parity/replay is NOT reported (PENDING).
- Post-correction positive predictive edge is NOT demonstrated (D stands).
- SAFE_CHUNKS_PER_TURN is NOT ESTABLISHED (broader P3-S25.1D multi-chunk turn
  benchmark OPEN; P3-S25.1D-R isolated the interruption verifier path only).
```

What REQUIRES explicit owner authorization:

```text
- A change to any FROZEN asset (see docs/AUTHORIZED_CHANGE_MATRIX.md and
  docs/FROZEN_ASSET_REGISTER.md).
- Any ML training/eval/calibrate/tune/feature/label change.
- Any change to SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE (P3-S25.1C established 24 MiB).
- Any external data source beyond the authorized Tickstory basis.
- Any production or deployment activity.
- Proceeding past the currently authorized chunk without a new authorization.
```

*End of P3-GOV-3 current decision gate. No new authorization is granted by this update.*