forked from animatedread/Warrior_EA
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AnimateDread
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40af4a4b5b |
fix(labels): the geometry scan rewarded the labels it should reject
First run named 3:10 on all four charts, at 2.3x the configured 2:6. That answer was wrong and the fault was the ranking statistic. 3:10 wants a horizon of ~swingMedian*30 (~320 bars) and gets BARRIER_HORIZON_MAX. Clamped, most trades never resolve, the unresolved remainder all lands in Neutral, and H(Y) collapses. The old statistic divided the excess BY H(Y) - so a collapsing denominator made the most degenerate label look like the most predictable one. Every geometry from 2:6 upward was already showing the clamped h128, and the two widest scored highest, which is the fingerprint of the artefact rather than of signal. Two fixes: Rank on the raw excess in nats. Subtracting each geometry's OWN measured null already removes the class-balance bias, which is the only thing the normalisation was ever needed for. Disqualify clamped geometries outright rather than ranking them down. The deployed EA holds until SL or TP with no bar limit, so a truncated label trains the model on a question the strategy never asks. They are still printed, marked '!', so the disqualification is visible instead of a silent omission - and the scan now says so explicitly when nothing eligible is left, because "the limit is the feature set, not the target" is itself the finding in that case. The scan also reports each geometry's directional share and timeout share now. A label nobody can trade is not a candidate however well it scores, and that has to be visible in the same line as the score. Compiles 0 errors / 0 warnings. Build tag geometry-scan-v2. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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AnimateDread
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f97ab9f1d6 |
feat(labels): measure which barrier is predictable at entry, don't guess
The alignment scan settled the shape of the problem: 4.7x more is knowable 5 bars into a 128-bar window than at the entry the model actually trades. A 6xATR target reached over 128 bars is decided overwhelmingly by what happens DURING the window, so whatever the entry state knows is buried under 128 bars of later noise. That is a property of the TARGET, and it is why four different architectures all landed on precision exactly equal to the base rate - no topology can undo it. So measure the target. For each SL/TP pairing a user can actually select, relabel the same sampled bars and score how much the SAME features say about THAT outcome at entry. Seconds, no training, no topology, and it runs on the diagnostic path that already exists. Ranked on excess over its OWN null as a share of its OWN H(Y), never on raw nats: each geometry has a different class balance, hence a different finite-sample bias and a different amount of information there to find, so raw MI would rank the most BALANCED label rather than the most PREDICTABLE one. The break-even win rate m/(m+k) is printed beside each so the ranking is read next to the bar the model must clear. Stated in the output because it is the easy thing to get wrong: chance precision EQUALS break-even at every geometry, so a tighter target does not hand you expectancy. It buys predictability - less noise piled on top of what the entry state knows - which is the one thing changing topology cannot do. Read-only by construction: it relabels a sampled copy via TripleBarrierLabel(), never writes the label cache (which belongs to the configured geometry), and restores the horizon and overrides it borrowed. The overrides apply only when BOTH are positive, so a half-set pair can never silently relabel a live run. Compiles 0 errors / 0 warnings, standard and Market. Build tag geometry-scan-v1. Redeploy only - no retrain to READ the ranking. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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AnimateDread
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4443ce85c1 |
fix(diag): the alignment scan cried misalignment at its own arithmetic
First run came back "WARNING - peak at k=+5, NOT 0 ... a feature/label
misalignment upstream of every topology". That was a false alarm produced
by the diagnostic's own design, and exactly the kind of plausible-looking
output this project has lost days to.
Bar indices are MQL5 SERIES indices - HIGHER index = OLDER bar
(TripleBarrierLabel walks its window as `for(t = idx-1; t >= idx-horizon;
t--)`, decreasing index = forward in time). The two directions therefore
mean opposite things and the scan treated them as symmetric:
k < 0 label belongs to a NEWER bar, its barrier window opens AFTER the
features exist. Nothing at bar i can legitimately know it, so a
peak here is real lookahead and a bug.
k > 0 label belongs to an OLDER bar, already k bars into its window by
the time bar i happens - so the features hold the realised first
k bars of that outcome. MI MUST rise with k. Arithmetic.
Only the k<0 side can indict the pipeline, and on the observed data it is
clean: -5/-3/-2/-1 all sit at or below the k=0 value and the noise floor,
so there is no lookahead - a real negative result, not an absence of
evidence.
The k>0 side is now reported as what it is, a second positive control,
with its gradient as the finding: 0.01881 at k=+5 against 0.00401 at k=0
means ~4.7x more is knowable 5 bars into a 128-bar window than at the
entry the model actually trades on.
Compiles 0 errors / 0 warnings. Build tag mi-align-v2. Redeploy only.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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AnimateDread
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87c8656b53 |
diag(autotune): a positive control, and a scan that separates "no signal"
from "signal knocked out of step" Four architecturally different networks landed on the same precision - Buy 23-25% against a 25.4% base rate, Sell 19-22% against 22.0% - while making completely different calls (HYBRID votes Sell on 69% of bars, PAI on 41%). Precision equal to the base rate is what INDEPENDENCE looks like, and precision under independence is fixed by the label distribution, not by the architecture, so all four converging on it is arithmetic rather than coincidence. Accuracy meanwhile tracks coverage exactly as independence predicts (31.1/30.3/25.0 predicted vs 31.8/28.9/24.6 observed for PAI/CONV/HYB). But "no information in the data" and "information destroyed upstream of every topology" produce that identical picture, and the MI test alone cannot tell them apart either. Two additions: POSITIVE CONTROL. Three "measurements" in this codebase have turned out to be silent no-ops that produced plausible numbers - the MI scorer reading an array nobody filled, the eval-mode guard that switched off the imbalance correction, the alternation gate whose premise was never true. So the estimator now has to prove it responds to a signal known to be present before any floor reading is believed: the label of a neighbouring sample row, ~19 bars away and far inside the 128-bar barrier horizon, so the two outcome windows overlap heavily and MUST be associated. Same binning, same estimator. Near the floor => every MI figure is void. ALIGNMENT SCAN. Re-scores against the label taken from bar i+k for k in -5..+5. A peak at k != 0 is a feature/label misalignment - an off-by-one in the label index, a horizon applied to the wrong bar, a feature window that lags what it claims - which would destroy the information before any topology saw it and would look identical in every accuracy number this EA prints. A flat profile says the features simply do not carry this target. The sampled range is trimmed by |k| at both ends so a shift is measured rather than an edge effect, and both bars must carry a real label. Also: BuildMiSample publishes its stride instead of the report recomputing that arithmetic (it would drift), and the control sizes its buffers from its own sample count rather than the caller's. Compiles 0 errors / 0 warnings, standard and Market. Build tag mi-control-align-v1. Redeploy only - no retrain, no model deletion; the diagnostic runs on resumed models. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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AnimateDread
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9a5f645dc3 |
diag(autotune): stop making the feature test cost a trained model
The permutation test lived inside TuneIndicatorsByFilter, which is gated on era 0 - correctly, because re-running the SWEEP would change the input vector out from under weights already fitted to the old one. But the test itself reads cached features and writes nothing, so none of that applies to it, and the gate meant the only way to see the answer on a running model was to delete the model. Today that price was PAI's 45 trained eras and CONV's 31, spent to re-ask a read-only question. Split into ReportFeatureLabelInformation(), called from the sweep when it runs and directly when it does not - a resumed model, a disabled tuner, nothing tunable. Once per attach either way. Compiles 0 errors / 0 warnings. Build tag permtest-v2. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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AnimateDread
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9920754dec |
diag(autotune): five permutations was still a coin flip - use a real test
The 5-draw z-score shipped an hour ago disproved itself on its first run. All four charts scored the IDENTICAL 0.00401 nats on identical features and identical labels - and reported z of +1.3, +2.0, +4.0 and +4.7. Two "AT THE NOISE FLOOR", two "a real association", same data. The entire swing came from estimating the null's spread from five draws, where the standard deviation of the standard-deviation estimate is ~35%: the denominator was noisier than the effect it was judging. Replaced with an empirical permutation test. 200 draws, p counted by rank with the +1/(B+1) correction (Phipson & Smyth 2010) so p is never reported as exactly zero - no normality assumption and no spread to estimate. The strongest single column is tested against the null distribution OF THE MAXIMUM, which corrects for scoring 26 features at once by construction and is far less conservative than Bonferroni. Affordable because BuildMiSample is now split out of ScoreCurrentParamsByMI and runs ONCE for the whole test - every draw reuses that sample and costs a relabel plus 26 histogram passes, not 2000 feature extractions. The coordinate sweep still calls the combined form, which is correct there: each candidate changes the indicator settings, so its features really do have to be re-extracted. The verdict line keeps both questions apart and prints both answers: the p-value for "is it real", the excess as a percentage of H(Y) for "is it big enough to trade". At n=2000 those can disagree, and collapsing them into one word is how a worthless effect gets called a discovery. Compiles 0 errors / 0 warnings. Build tag permtest-v1. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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AnimateDread
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12a1fbd133 |
diag(autotune): one label shuffle cannot settle the no-edge question
The permutation baseline added in
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AnimateDread
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018afb1ba9 |
fix(autotune): MI scorer read an array nobody filled; add the permutation floor
THE TUNER WAS A SILENT NO-OP. Every chart logged auto-tune complete - 17 candidate settings scored in ~139s, feature/label mutual information 0.0000 -> 0.0000 nats (no improvement) 0.0000 is not a weak result, it is a broken measurement: finite-sample MI is biased UPWARD, so even pure noise scores above zero. Cause: ScoreCurrentParamsByMI called BufferTempDataCompute(), which APPENDS the bar's features to TempData and never touches m_featureCache - only the caching wrapper BufferTempData() writes that array. It then read m_featureCache, which ReInitADIndicators had just invalidated. Every column came back constant, FeatureColumnMI returned 0 for all of them, and all 17 candidates tied at exactly zero. 139 s per chart to return the settings it started with. Now reads the values back out of TempData, where they actually land. And an exactly-zero best score is called out as a fault rather than reported as "no improvement", because that is what it is. ADDED: a PERMUTATION BASELINE, which is the diagnostic this project has been missing. MI's finite-sample bias is ~(bins-1)(classes-1)/(2n) nats - at these sample sizes the same order as any real edge in this domain - so a raw MI figure is uninterpretable on its own. Shuffling the labels destroys every genuine association while leaving sample size, binning and class proportions intact, so the score it produces IS this dataset's noise floor, measured rather than approximated. The log now reads feature/label information - X nats against a shuffled-label floor of Y and says outright whether the features carry usable information about the target. It needs no training, no topology and no convergence, so unlike every accuracy number in this codebase it cannot be confounded by an optimizer or an objective. If the score sits on the floor, no change of architecture can help - which is the question the last three days of zero-edge results have been circling. DEPLOY FLOOR: `dirPrecPct > chancePrecPct` passed anything above chance by any amount. At ~11,000 directional calls the standard error of the precision estimate is ~0.4pp, so that gate was accepting sub-one-sigma noise - the perceptron deployed at edge +0pp on 2026-08-01. Now requires EDGE_MIN_SIGMAS (2.0) standard errors above chance, computed from the actual call count, so the bar scales with the evidence instead of needing a hand-picked constant. Recorded with it, because it is why chance is the right reference at all: under a driftless random walk P(touch +k*ATR before -m*ATR) = m/(m+k), and the break-even win rate for a k:m reward:risk trade is ALSO m/(m+k). The label's own base rate IS the break-even rate, at every SL/TP setting. So "beats chance" and "is profitable" are the same test, and no choice of SL/TP can manufacture an edge - only prediction can. Both builds compile 0 errors / 0 warnings. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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AnimateDread
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6db0519472 |
perf(autotune): replace the genetic search with a filter score - hours to seconds
MEASURED COST OF THE GA, which is what retired it. Per generation: rung 0: 8 cand x 3 seeds x 3 eras = 72 eras rung 1: 4 cand x 3 seeds x 8 eras = 96 rung 2: 2 cand x 3 seeds x 20 eras = 120 = 288 eras/generation x 4 generations = 1152 eras BEFORE the winner's real training began. Against the observed era times on SP500 H1: PAI 29.1 s/era -> 9.3 h (matches the observed 00:37 -> 09:22) CONV 41.3 s/era -> 13.2 h LSTM 150.4 s/era -> 48.1 h HYBRID 154.6 s/era -> 49.5 h Two days to tune is not a first-run experience, and it is the phase in which the panel goes quiet, which is what made it look like a hang. It also bought nothing. The space is 90 points (10 MA periods x 9 MA types), so 1152 evaluations revisited each point ~13 times; and rungs of 3 and 8 eras cannot separate two MA periods at all. The 2026-08-01 run proves it: every finalist scored 25.0-25.9% balanced accuracy - below the 33.3% one-class floor, i.e. indistinguishable noise - and the search then "deployed the winner" of that. THE ERROR WAS THE SCORING FUNCTION, not its constants. Using a full training run to choose a feature's period is a wrapper method paying wrapper prices for a decision that does not need one. The reference book does not do this: ch. 3.3 selects inputs by measuring each candidate indicator's CORRELATION with the target and dropping the ones with none, with no network involved. So: rank candidates by the MUTUAL INFORMATION between the resulting feature vector and the triple-barrier label. MI rather than correlation because the label is 3-class categorical and the features are not monotonically related to it. Equal-FREQUENCY binning (rank-based), because these features are ATR-normalised and heavy-tailed - fixed-width bins put nearly everything in one bucket and report ~0 information for a genuinely useful feature. Scoring is arithmetic over the feature cache, so it costs seconds and its cost is independent of topology: LSTM now tunes as fast as the MLP. Coordinate sweep, not product sweep - cost is the SUM of per-parameter candidate counts, so enabling every indicator stays affordable - with a second pass that breaks early once nothing moves. Sampling is IS-ONLY. Letting the OOS window influence which indicator settings ship would mean the holdout had been used for selection and had stopped being a holdout. HONEST LIMIT, recorded because it is the price: MI is marginal, so a parameter that only pays off in combination with another can be missed (Guyon & Elisseeff 2003, filter vs wrapper). Given the wrapper it replaces was ranking pure noise at 48 h a run, this is strictly better. Deleted with it: GaRungEras/GaExtract/GaStore/GaMutate/GaRandomCandidate/ GaBlockCrossover/GaSortAliveByScoreDesc/GaBreedNextGeneration, 14 m_ga* members, the GA_*/TUNE_POP_* constants, and ComputeTuneTrialBudget. AND m_evalMode/m_evalEraBudget, because nothing set them any more - 28 read sites all permanently inert. That is not a tidy-up: the `if (!m_evalMode)` guard on UpdateClassPriors is exactly what silently disabled the imbalance correction for entire runs two commits ago. Dead machinery that still reads like live machinery is this codebase's most expensive recurring bug, and leaving 28 more instances of it would have been indefensible. The panel's tuning-progress state goes too - tuning no longer takes long enough to need one. Both builds compile 0 errors / 0 warnings. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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AnimateDread
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f48bc93f9b |
refactor(inputs): 96 -> 70 inputs; remove two untested/unusable filter modules
Every removal below is FINGERPRINT-NEUTRAL by construction: each retired input is pinned to the exact value it already shipped with, so running models keep their filenames and resume rather than restarting at era 0. Verified field by field against BuildConfigFingerprint. Removed as inputs, kept as pinned constants (the value was never a preference the user had a basis to change): - OutputNeuronsCount. The regression head predicts a continuous quantity the triple-barrier label does not contain; the target is an EVENT, so the right output is its probability. The regression code paths stay implemented and dormant - they cost nothing and removing them would touch every scoring path at once. - MinRecall. A safety floor, not a preference, and the only direction a user can move it is the harmful one: raising it past what the config reaches yields NO model, not a better one (observed repeatedly at 60). - SwingConfirmationBars. Stopped gating the labels with the relabel, but is STILL load-bearing for the swing-context input features - it is the ZigZag repainting embargo, and without it those 9 features read a leg the live bar could not have had yet. Pinned, not deleted. - MaxErasPerRun (runaway backstop, never reached in a healthy run), FreezePriorCalibration (unanswerable by a user; near-balanced labels make the priors stable anyway), VerboseMode (developer view, joins DebuggingMode), MACD/Ichimoku periods x6 (both indicators ship disabled, and as optimizer dimensions they are pure overfitting surface - the AI auto-tuner is the supported way to move them). - SignalClusterWindow -> 3, no longer an input. Barrier labels make consecutive setups real, which argued for 0; it is not 0 because on D1+ a 6-bar window spans over a week and two arrows a day apart on a weekly-scale move are one event. 3 splits it correctly by timeframe. - EnableOnlineLearning -> ON. Adapting to a changing market is what keeps a months-attached model from going stale, and the rolling-accuracy freeze is what makes it safe. See the caveat noted in the handoff: it had not been forward-tested on a live feed when this became default. Removed entirely: - Intraday Time Filter (5 inputs + Signals/SignalITF.mqh). Two of its five inputs were raw BITMASKS, which is an implementation detail exposed as a control. The job is covered three times over by things that are declarative or that learn: the session filter, the time-of-day/day-of-week input features (the network discovers which hours are good rather than being told), and the journal's time buckets. - Market Depth Filter (5 inputs + Signals/SignalMarketDepth.mqh, plus its OnInit probe and OnDeinit release). It needs real level-2 data that this broker - and most retail MT5 brokers - do not provide, so the module has never once executed against real data. Shipping four tuning dropdowns for an untested path is worse than shipping nothing: the only users who could enable it would be its first-ever testers, live. If DOM returns it should be a FEATURE fed to the network, not a rule-based veto with hand-tuned thresholds - imbalance is data. - IndicatorTuneTrials, replaced by ComputeTuneTrialBudget(). The useful budget depends on how many parameters are actually being searched, which depends on which features are enabled - so one number meant wildly different things run to run. The shipped 32 was ~10 candidates per dimension against one enabled indicator (wasteful: each costs GA_SEEDS full training runs) and under one per dimension against all nine (blind). Now population ~ 4 x active dimensions, clamped [8,64], with CADIndicatorTuner::ActiveDimensions() defined immediately above PerturbRandom() so the two cannot drift apart. - Six orphaned enums (TUNE_TRIALS_PRESET, DOM_*, ENTRY_HOUR_OF_DAY, TIME_FILTER_DAY_OF_WEEK), 81 lines. Other UX: - SL_ATR_x1 / TP_ATR_x3 now carry the "(classic)" default marker every other preset enum in the file already used. Nothing in the SL/TP dropdowns previously told a user which pair was the shipped default - which matters far more since the relabel, because those two define the labels and changing either forces a retrain. - Neural Network section moved directly ABOVE AI Input Features: choose the architecture, then choose what it sees. NN Optimizer / Performance stays last - the Adam/Sgd inputs are declared in AI/Network.mqh and render immediately after that divider. - News feature + window moved to the end of the AI feature list, below Wyckoff Bar Inversion. - Dropped "(0-100)" from Min vote to open - it is an enum, not a number. Both builds compile 0 errors / 0 warnings. No retrain forced. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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AnimateDread
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2de93539d4 |
refactor: split CExpertSignalAIBase implementation by responsibility
ExpertSignalAIBase.mqh was 8216 lines: the class declaration followed by 87 method bodies covering training, labelling, feature extraction, persistence, chart drawing, online learning, the GA auto-tuner and inference, all in one file. Train() alone is 1492 lines; a change to arrow drawing meant scrolling past the era loop. Moved the bodies into Expert\AIBase\, included at the bottom of the original after the class declaration: Training.mqh 1607 era loop, plateau ladder, checkpoint select, deploy Features.mqh 1093 indicator creation + per-bar input feature vector ChartUI.mqh 634 arrows, arrow persistence, status panel, cleanup Persistence.mqh 492 .stats/.cfg sidecars, CPU-inference validation, copy OnlineLearning.mqh 461 live continual learning, EMA shadow, OOS simulator Labels.mqh 309 ZigZag pivot labels, async label-cache prebuild AutoTune.mqh 275 genetic tuner (population, crossover, halving) Inference.mqh 235 softmax, prior calibration, class priors ExpertSignalAIBase.mqh 8216 -> 3131 (declaration + topology build only) This is a pure relocation - verified mechanically, not by eye: HEAD's file reconstructed from the eight partials plus the surviving remainder is byte-identical to HEAD, span for span (scratchpad verify_split.py). No declaration moved, no signature changed, no code rewritten, so behaviour is unchanged by construction. Compiles 0 errors, 0 warnings. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |