Three separate reports from one deploy.
1. CONV, LSTM and HYBRID all came back tagged [4109]. The weights
fingerprint omits the topology type on purpose - the file path already
separates it (State\CONV\ vs State\LSTM\ vs State\HYB\) and hashing a
value that is constant within a folder buys nothing while re-keying
every trained model into a forced retrain. So the files were never at
risk, but the tag could not do its one job. Prefixing the short id
makes it unique on the display side only; the hex half still greps
straight to the .nnw inside the folder the prefix names.
2. The default panel read like a training console. Six lines down to
three, each answering a question an owner actually has. The deploy
internals (best score, eras-since-best, ladder stage) were developer
diagnostics describing a recall floor that no longer decides anything,
and were already in the era-end journal line. In-sample accuracy left
the panel too: it grades the model on bars it trained on, so it always
flatters, and showing it beside the honest number invites reading the
wrong one. New compile-time DebuggingMode constant - deliberately not
an input - carries the IS/OOS pair and the resolved model path into
the journal instead. No extra Inputs row, no extra Market description
line, no user-reachable firehose.
3. Panel drag and buttons stuttered under training load, exactly as the
2026-07-26 note raising the chunk budget to 200ms warned they might.
Backed off to the documented 120ms - worst-case click latency is that
budget - and the derived topology (~292k weights to ~29k) makes the
throughput this costs far cheaper than when that note was written.
Also halved the panel redraw rate to 2.5 Hz: ChartRedraw repaints the
whole chart, so its cost scales with accumulated arrows, and 5 Hz was
the larger half of the stutter. Era-end still force-refreshes.
Both builds compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Balanced accuracy is maximized by exactly the model this system must never
deploy. Measured frontier at fixed signal strength, base rate 6.1%:
tau 0.00 -> calls 0.2% of bars at 27.3% precision, balanced 34.0%
tau 0.35 -> calls 2.0% of bars at 15.5% precision, balanced 36.3%
tau 1.00 -> calls 49.6% of bars at 6.4% precision, balanced 53.5%
It rises monotonically as the model calls MORE and is right LESS, because
two of its three terms are directional recalls that a call-everything model
drives to ~95%, while the Neutral term it sacrifices counts for only a
third. The 2026-07-29 run landed exactly there: balanced 58-64% while
calling a direction on ~100% of bars at a 5-7% win rate against a ~6% base
rate. Only the per-class recall floor stopped those deploying - a guard
doing the job the objective should have been doing - and that same guard
also rejected the genuinely useful sparse-but-precise checkpoints.
Ranking is now DIRECTIONAL PRECISION: of the bars called Buy or Sell, how
many were right. That is what a trading edge is. Two anti-degenerate floors
bracket it, since precision alone is trivially maximized by calling almost
nothing: coverage must reach a fraction of the true directional base rate
(derived, not configured - it adapts to any symbol/timeframe/label rule),
and precision must at least beat that base rate.
Against the same frontier the deploy order inverts from
tau 1.00 > 0.50 > 0.35 > 0.15 (old, worst model first)
to
tau 0.35 > 0.50 > 1.00 (new; 0.00/0.15 rejected on coverage)
Balanced accuracy is kept in the log as a diagnostic and marked as such, so
a run where the two disagree - the signature of an over-caller - is visible
at a glance. MinRecall no longer decides what ships; it now only drives the
diagnostic recall line and is a candidate for removal.
Both builds compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Menon et al. 2021 (ICLR), "Long-tail learning via logit adjustment": add
tau*log(prior_c) to each class logit inside the training gradient. Softmax
CE on adjusted logits is consistent for BALANCED error - the metric
checkpoint selection already ranks on - so the loss and the deploy decision
finally optimize the same thing.
The engine already computed a true softmax + categorical-CE gradient and
wrote it over the per-neuron sigmoid delta, so this is an offset added to
three logits in the two places that gradient is built (backProp scalar path
and backPropOCL). No backend, kernel or DLL change; the forward pass and
every inference path are untouched, which is the point - the network learns
to absorb the offset, so its raw argmax becomes the balanced-optimal
decision with nothing applied at inference.
Replaces rather than stacks. Minority replay is disabled while this is on,
and the post-hoc inference prior is forced off. Stacking is not a
theoretical worry: simulated on the measured 1118/1119/34298 distribution
in the weak-signal regime, plain CE collapses to Neutral (33.4% balanced,
Buy 0%), replay reaches 48.1%, logit adjustment 50.9% with better balance -
and BOTH together score 45.4% with Neutral recall at 0%, worse than either
alone. Buda et al. 2018 predicts exactly that.
Motivation from the six-chart run: every topology took one direction to
~50% recall and abandoned the other, the direction chosen arbitrarily (the
batch-norm control went Buy 1% / Sell 42%, the inverse of the other five).
One era in 1,301 cleared the per-class recall floor.
Fingerprinted conditionally, so the converged 60.7% models on disk keep
their filenames and stay loadable as the fallback.
Both builds compile 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Evidence (MQL5\Logs, SP500 H1, 2026-07-29):
Perceptron era 61 Buy 32% Sell 27% Neut 94% bal 51%
LSTM era 160 Buy 16% Sell 11% Neut 98% bal 42% (peaked 49% @ era 44)
Hybrid era 179 Buy 5% Sell 2% Neut 99% bal 35% (peaked 41%)
CONV era 228 Buy 2% Sell 4% Neut 99% bal 35% (peaked 40% @ era 122)
Every model peaks early then decays monotonically toward Neutral, and nothing
stops it: the restore-best-weights + decay-eta handler is gated on
m_bestPassedRecall, which stays false forever when no checkpoint ever clears the
per-class floor. CONV ran 228 eras with eta pinned at its 0.000300 start. The
plateau ladder cannot end such a run either (stage 3 refuses to deploy without a
recall pass, so it resets ~27 times), making it a 1000-era one-way trip.
The gate's own justification had expired. It was written when the pre-pass
tiebreak was blended-accuracy-only, where "best" really did mean "called Neutral
most confidently". The balanced-selection change replaced that with
`balancedOosEra > m_bestBalancedOos` plus an isFullyCollapsedEra exclusion, so a
Neutral-only era now scores ~33% - the FLOOR of the balanced metric - and cannot
anchor the checkpoint at all. Pre-pass "best" now means "most class-balanced so
far", which is worth defending; and isWorseEra is itself a balanced-accuracy
regression, so it cannot fire merely for trading Neutral calls for Buy/Sell.
The original concern still holds while the best-so-far IS near-collapse, so the
escape is margin-guarded: defend the checkpoint only once balanced accuracy sits
more than BALANCED_WORTH_DEFENDING_MARGIN_PCT (5pp) above the one-class floor of
100/3. Against the run above that engages for all three stuck topologies
(42.3/41.3/50.0 vs a 38.3 threshold) while a genuinely collapsed run still
explores freely.
Two inputs restored to the regime that actually produced a deploy:
- MinRecall 60 -> 40. The one successful auto-deploy in the logs (Hybrid, 28th
00:50, best balanced 66.0%) ran against a 40% floor. 60 has never been shown
reachable here - a floor above what the config can reach is the same "target
set too high" failure the surrounding comment already warns about.
- OversampleParity 60 -> 90. 60 overcorrected. Runs now START Neutral-dominant
(Buy 0-11% recall at era 1) and call Buy/Sell on 0-4% of bars against a ~6%
true base rate - under-calling, with no headroom to converge down from. The
deploying run began at Buy 90% / Sell 36%, 24% of bars called, and settled into
the floor from above. Raw over-calling is the intended starting condition; live
calls are base-rate-calibrated by AILogitPriorStrength, which is why the input's
own note says to judge over-calling by live-fired precision, not raw counts.
Compiles 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
ExpertSignalAIBase.mqh was 8216 lines: the class declaration followed by 87
method bodies covering training, labelling, feature extraction, persistence,
chart drawing, online learning, the GA auto-tuner and inference, all in one
file. Train() alone is 1492 lines; a change to arrow drawing meant scrolling
past the era loop.
Moved the bodies into Expert\AIBase\, included at the bottom of the original
after the class declaration:
Training.mqh 1607 era loop, plateau ladder, checkpoint select, deploy
Features.mqh 1093 indicator creation + per-bar input feature vector
ChartUI.mqh 634 arrows, arrow persistence, status panel, cleanup
Persistence.mqh 492 .stats/.cfg sidecars, CPU-inference validation, copy
OnlineLearning.mqh 461 live continual learning, EMA shadow, OOS simulator
Labels.mqh 309 ZigZag pivot labels, async label-cache prebuild
AutoTune.mqh 275 genetic tuner (population, crossover, halving)
Inference.mqh 235 softmax, prior calibration, class priors
ExpertSignalAIBase.mqh 8216 -> 3131 (declaration + topology build only)
This is a pure relocation - verified mechanically, not by eye: HEAD's file
reconstructed from the eight partials plus the surviving remainder is
byte-identical to HEAD, span for span (scratchpad verify_split.py). No
declaration moved, no signature changed, no code rewritten, so behaviour is
unchanged by construction.
Compiles 0 errors, 0 warnings.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
