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Warrior_EA/docs/Wyckoff/books/PLAYBOOK.md
AnimateDread d6b34b0483 wyckoff research, unconcluding as always.
2026-10-05 21:58:23 -04:00

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WYCKOFF PLAYBOOK (merged from two books)

Sources, cited as FR and W2:

  • FR = Rubén Villahermosa, La Méthodologie Wyckoff en Profondeur (2019). Page tags are book pages (PDF page minus 10) unless noted "pdf".
  • W2 = Rubén Villahermosa, Wyckoff 2.0: Structures, Volume Profile and Order Flow (2021). Page tags are as in the W2 digests.
  • W2 assumes FR is mastered and does not re-explain phases/events.
  • "AGREE / CONFLICT / EXTENDS" marks where the books overlap.
  • The reader is assumed to have NO other source. The books themselves call discretionary Wyckoff subjective (FR p168). Section 5 converts it into a checklist, but every threshold given there is a PROPOSAL (marked [P]) unless the book gives it. Book-given numbers are marked [B].

1. GLOSSARY (English / French or Spanish-origin term)

1.1 Foundations

Term Meaning
Cycle (cycle des prix) Accumulation -> Uptrend (markup) -> Distribution -> Downtrend (markdown). Only two formations exist: trend and range. Every timeframe can be in a different stage. FR p15-17
Re-accumulation / Redistribution Pause inside an uptrend / downtrend after which the trend continues. FR p15, p68-69, p76-78
Accumulation / Distribution Big operators absorb stock after a decline / sell stock after a rise; transfer between weak hands and strong hands. FR p39, p44, p62, p71
Strong hands / weak hands Used only to say who has most control, not an institutions-vs-retail war. W2 p80
Three laws Supply and demand; cause and effect; effort and result. FR p37
Cause / effect (cause et effet) The range (cause) is proportional to the following trend (effect). Longer or more effortful range gives bigger move. FR p45-46
Effort / result (effort et résultat) Effort = volume, result = price. Harmony = continuation, divergence = reversal. FR p52-61
Wave (vague) Price moves in waves of unequal size and time, nested and fractal. FR p13
Path of least resistance Direction where professionals have verified there is little opposing supply or demand. FR p16
Greed / fear Bull market fed by greed (overbought); bear market fed by fear (oversold). FR p21
Speed (vitesse) / Projection / Depth (profondeur) Strength measures: angle of a move; distance of impulses vs previous impulses; distance of reversals vs previous reversals. FR p22-25
Shortening of the Thrust (SOT; raccourcissement de la poussée) Each new extreme in a trend travels less than the previous one. W2 p26-27
Overbought / oversold Price beyond the top of an uptrend channel / below the bottom of a downtrend channel. FR p30
Supply line / demand line (ligne de soumission/offre; ligne de demande) Downtrend line through falling highs / uptrend line through rising lows. FR p27-29
Pivot line A level acting as both support and resistance (OCR variant "ligne d'arbre"). FR p26
Weather-type bar (bougie météo) News bar that moves price strongly with little preparation. FR p46
Liquidity zone (zone de liquidité) Prior highs/lows/rotations holding many pending orders; price is drawn to them. FR p190, p206
Aggressive / passive Market-order takers (liquidity takers) vs limit-order makers. Passive orders can stop a move but cannot move price. FR p49-52; W2 p114-116
Initiative (initiative) Aggressive market orders in the direction of the intended move; only these move price. W2 p115
Exhaustion (épuisement) Lack of interest on the opposite side makes moves easy. W2 p117
Absorption (absorption) Passive limit orders (often icebergs) stop an aggressive flow; heavy trading, little price progress. W2 p118, p128, p202

1.2 Structure vocabulary (accumulation / distribution)

Accumulation term Distribution mirror Meaning
PS Preliminary Support (Arrêt préliminaire) PSY Preliminary Supply First attempt to stop the trend; ALWAYS fails; earlier attempts are "potential PS". FR p40, p82-88
SC Selling Climax BC Buying Climax Climactic extreme that stops the move (may be bars of low volume = Exhaustion). FR p89-94, p105-109
Selling / Buying Exhaustion Author's proposed events: trend ends with successive PS/PSY on declining volume, no climax. Methodology still labels it SC/BC. FR p105-109
AR Automatic Rally AR Automatic Reaction First large counter-move; sets the range limit; = the first Change of Character (ChoCh). FR p110-117
ST Secondary Test ST Retest of the climax with lower volume and narrower range; ends Phase A. FR p118-125
UA Upthrust Action UT Upthrust ST at the upper extreme: pierces the high and re-enters (label by whether bias is accumulative or distributive). FR p123-124
ST as SOW mSOW minor Sign of Weakness ST at the lower extreme, new low of the structure. FR p124
mSOS minor Sign of Strength Up move failing to break the structure; also UA when price holds above resistance for a while. FR p124, p158
Creek (creek) ICE (glace) Resistance level of accumulation/re-accumulation (AR high plus Phase B highs) / support level of distribution (AR low plus Phase B lows). FR p40, p45
SP Spring (Springboard; Terminal Shakeout) UTAD Upthrust After Distribution Phase C shakeout through the extremes of A/B. FR p47, p132-149
Test of Spring / of UTAD Phase C retest on low volume, narrowing range; holds above the Spring / below the UTAD high. FR p145
Terminal Shakeout Terminal Upthrust Severe version: extreme volume or deep penetration. FR p141, p148
Ordinary Shakeout Ordinary Upthrust Shakeout mid-trend (Phase E), little preparation. FR p144, p149, p199
Minor Spring / Minor UTAD Shakeout that hits local extremes but not the whole structure's extremes; may be labelled LPS/LPSY. FR p143, p147, p181
SOS Sign of Strength SOW Sign of Weakness Wide, easy move after Phase C. FR p157-161
JAC Jump Across the Creek / MSOS MSOW Major Sign of Weakness The SOS/SOW that breaks Creek/Ice. Second ChoCh. FR p157-159
SOS bar SOW bar Intentional bar: wide range, rising volume, close in extreme third. FR p158, p161; W2 p241
LPS Last Point of Support LPSY Last Point of Supply Last pullback before the SOS/SOW; higher low / lower high. Three types: after shakeout, inside range, outside range. FR p170-173
BU Back Up / BUEC (Back Up to the Edge of the Creek) FTI Fall Through the Ice Post-break test of the broken Creek/Ice; the confirmation (Event 7). FR p162
ChoCh Change of Character First: trend -> range (Phase A). Second: range -> trend (Phase C origin to end of D). FR p40, p110, p150
Phase A / B / C / D / E Stop prior trend / build cause / test (shakeout) / trend inside range + confirmation / trend outside range. FR p175-186
The seven events 1 Preliminary stop, 2 Climax, 3 Reaction, 4 Test, 5 Shakeout, 6 Breakout, 7 Confirmation. FR p79-81
Five-step protocol 1 stop trend, 2 build cause, 3 assess competition (test), 4 launch trend move, 5 confirm directionality. FR p189; W2 p68, p109
Failed accumulation / failed distribution (structure échouée) All traces point one way, then at the post-break test the opposite side takes the imbalance. W2 p19-21
Structural failure (défaillance structurale) Price reverses before reaching the opposite zone of a validated structure. W2 p23-25
Sloped structure (structure à pente) Same events on a tilted channel; upslope = strength, downslope = weakness. W2 p30-43
Last shake (le choc) The most recent Spring/Upthrust; sets the directional bias. W2 p21
Control (contrôle) / test of the control Order-flow continuation model: imbalance candle after the move starts; later retest. W2 p210-213
Market control (contrôle du marché) / movement reversal Last significant bar marks who controls; broken by an opposite significant bar. FR p203-205
Significant bar See 2.12. FR p201-203

1.3 Volume, volume profile, order flow

Term Meaning
Harmony / divergence (harmonie / divergence) Effort agrees / disagrees with result. FR p52-61
No Demand / No Supply (VSA) Low-volume test candle in weak / strong context. FR p46, p126-131
Weis wave Volume summed per price wave from base zero. W2 p63-65
Point & Figure (P&F) count Wyckoff's target method; author no longer uses it. FR p47-50, p204
Auction Market Theory (AMT) Market alternates between equilibrium (range, accepted value) and imbalance (trend). W2 p100-108
Value (valeur) Price + time + volume. Acceptance = holds, takes time, trades volume; rejection = fast return. W2 p105-107
Horizontal / vertical development Equilibrium / imbalance. W2 p106
Volume Profile (VP) Horizontal histogram of volume per price level. Fixed range (manual), session, composite (fixed or variable). W2 p144-158
VPOC Highest-volume level of a profile (price above = buyers control). W2 p150
DVPOC Developing VPOC; counts as a target only if UNTESTED. W2 p248
Naked VPOC Final VPOC of a previous session not yet retested. W2 p248
VA, VAH, VAL Value Area (68.2% of profile volume, first standard deviation) and its high and low. Outside = 31.8% rejection area. W2 p146-147
HVN / LVN High / low volume node: balance and magnet / rejection and "unfair" price. W2 p152
V-reversal vs rapid displacement Two rejections at an LVN: unchanged value, wicks / changed value, wide high-volume candles. W2 p153
Completed / unfinished auction Thin tail (low volume node) at an extreme / HVN at the extreme (market likely to revisit). W2 p148-149
VWAP / WAP Volume weighted average price; session, weekly, monthly; with +/-1 or 2 SD bands. W2 p150-151
Market Profile (MP), TPO, Initial Balance Time-based profile; one letter = 30 min; IB = first hour. W2 p162-165
Profile shapes D / P / b; bP and Pb D balance; P = imbalance up then rotation; b = imbalance down then rotation; bP = bullish turn, Pb = bearish turn. W2 p166-181
VPOC migration VPOC moves to a new price; read with time consumption. W2 p182-186
Value-area principles Range, Reversion (80% rule), Continuation, Failed reversion. W2 p188-197
Order book / DOM, Time and Sales, Footprint, Delta, cumulative delta Resting orders / executed orders stream / executed orders per price per candle / ASK minus BID volume. W2 p125-141
Spoofing, Iceberg Fake large limit orders / hidden large limit order refilling. W2 p127-128
Imbalance (déséquilibre) Diagonal comparison of ASK vs BID volume, threshold 200/300/400 %. W2 p199-200
Reversal pattern Absorption then initiative. W2 p202
Operating levels / zones VAH, VAL, VPOC, WAP; Wyckoff structure zones; HVN/LVN. W2 p220
One-movement / two-movement scenario Price already on the right side of the zone / on the wrong side and needs a positioning move first. W2 p237-238
Continuous validation protocol "If X then Y" reactive plan with an alternative scenario. W2 p239
Tick / volume / range chart Bar after N trades / N contracts / N ticks of price. W2 p16-18
RTH / ETH Regular / electronic (overnight) trading hours. W2 p13
Strong market-structure position words "In a buy position" = accumulation or uptrend; "in a sell position" = distribution or downtrend. FR p17

2. MARKET-READING PROCEDURE (apply in this order)

Notation: each step has a Do, a Why/Source, and a Stop-rule where the books give one.

2.0 Pre-flight: instrument and data (W2 p80, p90, p112-113; FR p211)

  1. Trade only liquid, centralised markets. Avoid thin assets (single institution can move price: manipulation risk). W2 p80, p112.
  2. Volume must be real: analyse the future (e.g. 6E for EURUSD, M6E micro) if you trade OTC; execute via a Non-Dealing-Desk CFD if capital is short. Future and CFD price action is practically identical. W2 p80, p89-90; FR p211.
  3. Intraday volume is time-of-day distorted (RTH vs ETH; midday lull). Compare against the same session type, or use daily charts. Low overnight volume = absent traders, not lack of interest. W2 p13-14.
  4. Optional bar types without time (tick, volume, range) reduce noise; N must be tuned; volume bars cannot be volume-analysed (every bar has same volume). W2 p15-18.
  5. Follow a list of 3-4 assets, trade the clearest. W2 p77. If nothing is clear, change asset or go up one timeframe; do not go lower. W2 p76-77.
  6. Ignore news, rumours, opinions. FR p17. Many moves are random; some ranges have no cause. W2 p78.

2.1 Context and trend

  1. Draw all timeframes top-down. Weekly usually shows all relevant action; intermediate TFs 8h/4h/2h; then lower. FR p17; W2 p66-67.
  2. Name the cycle stage on each TF: accumulation, uptrend, distribution, downtrend, re-accumulation, redistribution. Do not trade against the stage: no shorts in markup after accumulation, no longs in markdown after distribution. FR p16-17.
  3. Trend = rising highs and lows (up), falling (down), oscillation (range). FR p18-19.
  4. Weakness/strength comparisons between consecutive moves, never absolute values (FR p22-25):
    • Speed: angle of the new impulse vs the last.
    • Projection: distance of this impulse vs the last. For a trend to stay alive each impulse must exceed the previous one.
    • Depth: distance of this reversal vs the last. Deeper reversal = weakness.
    • Measure both origin-to-end and extreme-to-extreme.
    • Weakness is not a trend change (p22).
  5. SOT check (W2 p26-27): need at least 3 thrusts; look for shortening on the 3rd/4th. Shortening + high volume = effort/result divergence. Shortening + low volume = exhaustion. More than 4 thrusts with persisting shortening = trend may be too strong to counter-trade.
  6. Lines and channels (FR p25-33; W2 p48-50): lines give directional bias and sentiment, never a standalone trade. More touches = more valid. Price above an uptrend channel top = overbought (expect corrective down); below downtrend channel bottom = oversold. Failure to reach the original overbought line in an up move = weakness. A trendline break is not a reversal alone (FR p28-29); do not anticipate a reversal without at least a trendline break (W2 p49).
  7. Higher-timeframe structure has priority over lower; if you decide the market may accumulate, only look to buy. FR p187-188; W2 p72.
  8. Phase-B/range candidates: a range may be accumulation, distribution, or random (no professional interest). Ignore random ones (FR p35, p46). Effect is proportional to time spent (FR p35, p46).

2.2 Structure identification

  1. Find the event that objectively STOPPED the previous trend and turned it sideways (change of character). That is sufficient; do not demand that PS/SC/AR/ST all be identifiable. W2 p10-12, p45-46 (this softens FR's stricter reading, see Section 3 conflicts C1).
  2. Draw the range: Phase A extremes (SC low / AR high for accumulation; BC high / AR low for distribution). Creek = AR high + Phase B highs; Ice = AR low + Phase B lows. FR p40, p45.
  3. Test of validity: more touches of the two zones = more confidence; expect traversal extreme to extreme. If price turns before the opposite zone = structural failure (adds force to the reversal). W2 p23-25.
  4. Decide horizontal vs sloped: start horizontal (Phase A); if Phase B respects neither extreme and price exits, think sloped; connect extremes of A, B, C with a channel containing almost all price. Beginners: horizontal only. W2 p28-31.
  5. Do NOT label unusual patterns (H&S, wedges, triangles, V). Wait for classic structures. W2 p44-46.
  6. Real-time uncertainty: accumulation vs distribution (and re-accumulation vs distribution) cannot be known until it is over; scenarios are conditional ("potential"); only forecast the NEXT move. FR p70, p77; W2 p51-52, p55.
  7. Keep the chart clean; delete labels once a structure is complete. W2 p66.

2.3 Phase identification (A-E)

Apply the schematic as an order of events, not as a rigid shape (FR p38, p210-211; W2 p10-12).

Phase Starts Contains Ends
A Trend ends PS/PSY, SC/BC, AR, ST After the ST
B After ST Cause building; STs at both extremes (UA/UT, ST as SOW/mSOW); minor Springs/UTs Shakeout (C) starts
C Shakeout move Spring/UTAD (or LPS/LPSY if no shakeout), then its test After the test
D After Phase C test SOS/SOW, LPS/LPSY inside, JAC/MSOW, then BU/BUEC/FTI Confirmation event fully developed
E After confirmation Trend out of range: SOS/SOW + LPS/LPSY, ordinary shakeouts New Phase A events

Phase proportions (FR p179): Phase B should be longer than A and C (guideline, "very likely"). B shorter than A or C = urgency of the absorbing side. W2 p46: do not impose proportionality in real time. Phase C when strong participation appears at the shakeout: either the campaign is abandoned (trend continues) or B extends with more tests (FR p180-181). Phase D scenarios at Creek/Ice (FR p183-184): (1) falls back to an LPS/LPSY then attacks again; (2) big traders pay up and absorb through it; (3) least likely: attempt fails and creates a new shakeout leading to the opposite break.

2.4 Event reading (what each event must look like)

Each event with the observable features the books give. Thresholds are unquantified in the books ("relatively"); see Section 5 for the proposed numbers.

Preliminary stop (PS/PSY) FR p82-88: first entry of big operators; can be one wide bar with volume spike, a group of narrower bars with high constant volume, or a bar with big wick. Prior attempts = "potential PS". Confirmed only when SC, AR, ST develop. Use: stop trading with the old trend, take profits (p85). Repeated PS with falling volume = supply removed; last extreme may have no volume spike.

Climax (SC/BC) FR p89-94, p105-109: large volume after prolonged trend. Needs a strong reaction (event 3) and a test (event 4). Sideways after the climax with no AR/ST = trend probably continues (p89-90). Authenticity test = ST with much lower volume. Climax is not necessarily the extreme of the structure (p90). Exhaustion version = normal/narrow bars with average/low volume. SC low = lower bound of the structure; BC high = upper bound. Do not open at the climax (p92).

Reaction (AR) FR p110-117: largest move since the previous trend started; compare to average recent swings (example: recent 50-point swings, AR of 100 = stronger). Volume large at start and declining to low at end; ranges wide then narrowing; no mechanical stop rule. Uses: sets the range limit; identifies the true climax; gives the map (price will go test the climax); scalp opportunity (close at the AR; p113). Weak AR (short, overlapping, no volume peak) = no equilibrium: for potential accumulation doubt it (redistribution more likely); for potential distribution with ST ending above the BC high, suspect re-accumulation (p111).

Secondary Test (ST) FR p118-125: valid when ranges narrow and volume is LOWER than at the climax (order of importance: volume first, range second). ST above SC low = neutral; upper half of range = some buyer imbalance; slightly below SC low = imbalance for sellers (rigid "must hold above SC low" rejected). Phase B STs at an extreme: label by outcome; in real time label "ST in B". W2 p56 adds a halves test: ST in lower half or below low = weakness in the bottom; ST in upper half or above high = lower resistance.

Phase B tests FR p119-125, W2 p56-58: test of upper part = strength; test of lower part = weakness. Test that slightly breaks highs has two readings (stops absorbed, bearish pressure removed OR big traders sold into it); resolved by what follows. Failure to visit the opposite extreme after a test = structural failure, adds strength to the opposite direction. Accumulation example: UA + failure to reach the bottom = breakout likely from mid (LPS) without a Spring. Distribution example: ST as SOW + no test of the top = likely LPSY as Phase C event.

Shakeout (Spring / UTAD) FR p132-149, W2 p58-61: see 3.1-3.4. The single most important event; a break of a liquidity zone that is a deception. Minimum objective: visit of the opposite extreme of the structure.

Breakout (SOS/JAC, SOW) FR p150-161: see 2.5.

Confirmation (BU/BUEC, FTI, LPS/LPSY) FR p162-166: see 3.6-3.8.

2.5 Phase D reading: is the break authentic?

FR p154-156, p163-166; W2 p60-62, p229-230. Clues in order of reliability:

  1. Price does NOT immediately re-enter the range (most reliable; FR p154). Accepted outside the range, first as sideways action; then VPOC migration or new zone. Definitive trace = no return into value (W2 p229-230).
  2. Range and volume expand, break previous control zones (FR p154). Wide candle closing near the extreme with high volume (W2 p62). High volume and wicks at the breakout are NORMAL in a liquidity zone and are not a shakeout (W2 p229); what follows decides.
  3. After-break candles: narrow, overlapping, volume lower than the break move (FR p154; FR p164: test with low-volume, overlapping, small-range candles).
  4. Distance: not predefined, but evident; a few points away gives more confidence (FR p155-156).
  5. Time: NOT excessive. Enough to produce a new VPOC or its migration, then the trend should start with speed (W2 p230). Failure signs: large candles with high steady volume then re-entry (FR p165); corrective move with wide range + high volume voids the break (FR p166); high volume in the confirmation test = latent interest, caution (FR p165). Low-volume breakout: in normal conditions treat as potential shakeout; may be genuine if opposing interest is absent (W2 p62; FR p155-156). The breakout bar is not a trade: wait for the test (FR p150-151, p156).

2.6 Effort vs result (volume reading)

FR p52-61, App.1 p227. Evaluate at every key point:

Dimension Harmony Divergence
Single candle wide range + high volume; narrow range + low volume narrow range + high volume; wide range + low volume
Following move high-volume bullish candle then price rises; mirror for bearish high-volume bullish candle, no rise (price turns)
Movements impulse (new high/low) with rising volume; reversal with falling volume impulse with falling volume; reversal (verify it is real) with rising volume
Waves (Weis) up waves with more volume than down waves; growing waves in impulse; decreasing in pullback up moves with less volume than down moves; decaying waves in impulse; growing in pullback
Key levels approaches with volume and breaks approaches with volume and fails / does not break; low volume that breaks
Additional (FR p60-61): large relative volume with small advance = move near end; strong volume after a strong downtrend = decline near end (SC, accumulation may start); strong volume after a prolonged uptrend = distribution may start; reversals also occur on low volume (lack of interest). Volume in an up wave is not all buying, down wave not all selling (FR p58).
Structure-level volume (W2 p62-63): accumulation = volume and volatility decrease as the range develops (less stock to sell); distribution = high or unusual volume constant, big swings, develops faster. Third most important trace. General guidelines only.
Weis wave rules (W2 p64-65): impulsive moves with large growing waves, corrective with small declining waves; a large bullish wave through a resistance = harmony; same break with tiny wave = divergence; Spring then big bullish wave through Creek = ideal, but a large bearish wave back into the range = potential Upthrust.

2.7 Directional bias: the six traces (W2 p55-65)

Priority: (1) Phase C shakeout (principal), (2) Phase D price/volume (SOS/SOW bar), (3) global volume; the rest are additive. What immediately precedes the present is second in weight to the latest information (p59).

  1. ST type in Phase A (halves test).
  2. Test type in Phase B and the Reaction.
  3. Shakeout in Phase C. The real value is continuation: it must generate momentum to at least the opposite extreme, preferably break it. If a UTAD only reaches the lows it leaves a mSOW; if the market cannot even do that, underlying strength is shown and the UTAD is questionable (W2 p61).
  4. Price/volume in Phase D.
  5. Global volume.
  6. Weis waves. Rule (W2 p21): trade in the direction of the LAST shake (longs after a potential Spring, shorts after a potential Upthrust) if the other traces agree. Rule (W2 p22): context beats extremes-only: a structure with distributive features that sits between a potential Spring and a potential bearish break is traded as the bearish break (latent imbalance). These two can conflict; priority is judgement (open point).

2.8 Minor vs major structure and timeframe descent

W2 p66-78:

  1. Determine the preferred scenario (long/short) on the higher TF structure and zones; do not descend until the context is clear.
  2. Higher-TF potential Spring: look for a minor accumulation on the lower TF acting as the Spring. Higher-TF potential BUEC: favour minor re-accumulation as test of the broken structure. Higher-TF Phase E uptrend: favour minor re-accumulations.
  3. Stay objective on the minor: a potential Spring is also a potential effective bearish break; if strong selling appears, drop the accumulation scenario. A minor distribution where a minor accumulation (BUEC) was expected = the Upthrust of the major (p71-72).
  4. A minor structure can BE an event of a major one (fast minor accumulation = AR of a larger downtrend structure; minor distribution in Phase E = BC of a larger structure). W2 p73-75.
  5. If a minor structure fails at the moment of truth, re-read it as part of a major one (W2 p74-75).
  6. Always keep both long and short scenarios. Favour large structures; the lower you go the more noise.
  7. Counter-trend minor structures: experienced traders only, short-term, in agreement with the developed structure. W2 p73.
  8. FR p189-190 agrees: dropping to a smaller TF (e.g. 4H/1D structure, 1H or lower) is the way to find minor structures; no fixed TF ratio given.

2.9 Volume profile layer: where

W2 p144-197, p218, p232-236.

  1. Profile choice: intraday = previous session profile as base, current session as support; longer = previous week or composite of weeks/months with weekly/monthly WAP; structure traders = fixed (anchored) profile of the whole structure (start of rotation to the day before the imbalance). Completed profiles beat developing. Composite span: must cover enough price above and below to identify HVN and LVN (no rule).
  2. Identify VPOC, VAH, VAL, WAP, HVN, LVN. Structure limits are always LVN (rejection). Creek/Ice can coincide with VAH/VAL (W2 p172).
  3. Bias: price above VPOC = buyers in control; below = sellers. Avoid trading around VPOC (consensus fluctuation). Always favour the direction of the LAST HVN generated; counter-scenario only once price breaks the zone that supported the last move (W2 p174-175, p227). The controlling HVN need not be the VPOC.
  4. Confluence: for a long want operating levels (VPOC, WAP, VAH/VAL) BELOW price; for a short, ABOVE (W2 p175). WAP and VPOC close together = equilibrium day, only extreme-reversals (p176). Context prevails over a single contrary level (p177).
  5. Auction shape before a break: want a COMPLETED auction (thin) at the bottom of the zone before an upward break; unfinished auction (HVN) at the bottom = quarantine, expect a revisit of the low. In doubt, treat as completed (W2 p148-149).
  6. Trend health: higher and higher session VAs/VPOCs = healthy; overlapping VAs or one moving against the trend = consolidation, possible change of character (W2 p179).
  7. Profile shapes: only valuable if the LAST action is creation of new value (imbalance left, value right). Mirrored P (imbalance after rotation) at the end of a fall = late. P after a long downtrend = end of downtrend; mirrored P = distribution; b after a prolonged up move = end of up move; b in a long downtrend = redistribution. bP = accumulation, Pb = distribution; Pb example: P, two days overlapping VAs, then b triggers downside imbalance; short below b's VA (W2 p166-181). Do not classify the day type in advance (p165).
  8. VPOC migration protocols (W2 p182-186):
    • Reversal: (1) VPOC migration; (2) non-continuity (cannot go further); (3) time consumption (sideways much longer than during earlier continuations); (4) change of character (impulse the other way); (5) operating idea: first level = end of the broken VA (VAL if it broke below, VAH if above), second = VPOC. V reversals practically untradable.
    • Continuation: (1) migration with a new impulse at speed after little time; (2) wait for trigger, enter.
    • Migration followed by full reversal and close far away = rejection despite migration.
  9. Value-area principles (W2 p188-197, p259, p263): Range (inside VA, buy low/sell high, min target VPOC, max opposite extreme; safest trigger = confluence of more than one operating level), Reversion (price enters VA, goes to opposite extreme; 80% rule), Continuation (price tries to enter VA, rejected at the edge, imbalance in that direction), Failed reversion (rejection at VPOC cancels reversion; recovering the edge activates continuation; effective VPOC break continues reversal to the opposite extreme).

2.10 Order flow layer: trigger (only at pre-identified zones)

W2 p125-143, p198-213. Never use order flow alone (coin toss without context, W2 p219); it must be subordinated to Wyckoff context (p139, p143).

  1. Read the footprint diagonally (BID level vs the ASK level one tick higher) (p199). Imbalance = high volume one column, low in the diagonal opposite; threshold 200/300/400 % (p200). Optional minimum contract filter. It depends on the opposite level and the candle volume.
  2. Reversal model = absorption then initiative (p202-208).
    • Absorption: relatively high volume; candle colour irrelevant; close AGAINST the imbalance (buy absorption = ASK imbalances above the close; sell absorption = BID imbalances below the close); price fails to continue; wicks not required; confirmed or rejected by the next reaction.
    • Initiative: aggression in the column of the desired direction, relatively high volume, close IN FAVOUR of the imbalance (buy initiative: imbalances at the bottom of the candle; sell: at the top), followed by immediate price movement. Equals SOS/SOW bar. May need time (sideways inability to continue adds strength). A completed auction at the extreme adds strength.
    • Bearish reversal: large ASK-column trades above/near the zone (aggressive buys met by limit sells), then BID-column trades (sell market) in the upper part, then down move = SOW bar (example delta +197 -> -171).
    • Bullish reversal: big BID-column activity in the lower part (sells meet limit buys, price does not fall), then ASK aggression with imbalances below the close (example delta -312 then +607; delta -536 then weak candle with no imbalances = not ready).
  3. Continuation model = control + test (p210-213).
    • Bullish control: ASK imbalance(s), good volume, close in the UPPER third of the range; stronger when imbalances sit lower in the range. Bearish control: BID imbalance(s), high volume, close in the LOWER third. At least 2 imbalances preferred, best 3 consecutive at different prices. A single imbalance on a large candle with close near the extreme and relatively high volume is acceptable. Control level often coincides with the candle VPOC or an HVN.
    • Test: price returns to the control zone; lack of interest shows as relatively LOW volume (wick, small extension, barely touching). A new demonstration of initiative (aggressive re-entry, next candle high volume with new imbalance) is the definitive trigger.
  4. Delta caveats: ASK volume is not "buying intent" (a stop-out, profit-taking, or passive absorption also prints there). Delta divergence works only in the right zone with absorption intention; not all divergences reverse. Footprint imbalance threshold is software-dependent.
  5. Fractality (W2 p214-215): absorption + initiative = tiny accumulation/distribution + trend move = P/b profile = multi-day structure; only time differs. Control = part of an impulse; test of control = part of a pullback.

2.11 Confluence assembly (final step)

Use the W2 four-step operating scheme (p220-221) with the FR protocol inside it:

  1. WHAT (context): buy/sell. Range (extremes / inside) or trend (interacting with value / away from value). Only two states: equilibrium or imbalance (W2 p225).
  2. WHERE (zones and levels): Wyckoff structure zones; HVN/LVN; VAH/VAL/VPOC/WAP.
  3. HOW (scenario): one-movement vs two-movement; continuous validation protocol; alternative opposite scenario ready.
  4. TRIGGER and management: SOS/SOW bar (price action) and reversal/continuation model (order flow); entry, stop, target. Checklist (W2 p255): what, where, scenario, trigger. Priority of evidence: Phase C shakeout > Phase D bar > global volume > profile levels > order flow. Confluence of more than one operating level at the trigger = safest (W2 p190, p236). A scenario is validated or rejected by what follows; re-evaluate continuously (W2 p51-52, p198).

2.12 The significant bar and market control (the price-action trigger)

FR p201-205; W2 p241. Significant bar:

  1. Range relatively wider than preceding candles.
  2. Volume proportionate (i.e. higher).
  3. Close in the half of the bar in the direction of the move (FR) / upper or lower THIRD (W2 p241).
  4. Commitment: bullish bar closes above a prior resistance; bearish closes below a prior support.
  5. If no single bar qualifies, combine two normal bars into one. Market control: the last significant bar marks control (price above the last rising significant bar = buyers). Control reverses when a significant bar of opposite intention closes beyond the extreme of the last one: bearish reversal bar closes BELOW THE LOW of the last bullish significant bar; bullish reversal bar closes ABOVE THE HIGH of the last bearish significant bar. Reversal bars appear at changes of character (up-turn bar after SC; down-turn bar ending the AR).

3. SETUP CATALOGUE

Common notes:

  • Trade-off (FR p193): the more developed the structure, the higher the confidence and the smaller the potential profit. Earlier = bigger move, lower reliability.
  • Entry order types: Wyckoff-style entries accepted in FR p166 (market after SOS bar, stop order at break of the bar, or limit at a level awaiting price). W2 p242-244 narrows this: prefer STOP orders; accept market/pullback-limit as "valid options"; do NOT use limit orders that bet on two movements (CONFLICT C6).
  • Position size and risk: Section 4.
  • "Mirror" means swap long/short, Spring/UTAD, Creek/Ice, SOS/SOW, LPS/LPSY.

3.1 S1: Spring #3 direct entry (accumulation Phase C) / mirror: Upthrust without volume

  • Structure/phase: Accumulation or re-accumulation, Phase C (needs prior trend stop + Phase B cause). Mirror: UTAD without volume (FR p200 table, App.2 p228).
  • Entry trigger: a break of the range support (or of minor lows) on decreasing volume and narrowing ranges (total disinterest in lower prices) that immediately recovers; "buy positions can be taken directly" (FR p142). Wyckoff 2.0 trigger form: Spring then SOS bar with reversal pattern on the footprint; Buy Stop above the bar high (W2 p241-246). Entering on the Spring is recommended only if the Spring occurs on relatively low volume (FR p193).
  • Confirmation: fewer candles before recovery = stronger (FR p135). Price returns into range and heads for the opposite extreme (W2 p58-61). Spring #3 needs no separate test (FR p145).
  • Invalidation: price stays below / continues lower (a high-volume break = real breakdown; a new accumulation must be built, FR p140-141); UTAD that cannot reach the lows leaves mSOW, questionable shakeout (W2 p61). A "Spring" with no minor SOS is relabelled a simple test when a new low forms (W2 p52).
  • Stop: below the Spring low (FR p200-201). W2 p246: below the trigger candle (no.1) or below the entire structure (no.2), protected also by trigger-candle imbalances, any VWAP, structure VAL (an LVN).
  • Targets: Creek first (FR p127); opposite extreme of the structure minimum (W2 p58). Then see 3.12.
  • Management: breakeven at first management zone (W2 p259); no trailing as default (FR p203).
  • AGREE: both treat the shakeout as the most decisive action (FR p132; W2 p21). EXTENDS: W2 adds profile/footprint trigger and a stop-order entry. CONFLICT: FR "enter on the shakeout only if low volume, else wait for test"; W2 p243 says the potential Spring test should be proposed as one movement only (no limit order waiting for it).

3.2 S2: Test of Spring (Spring #1/#2 test, shakeout test) / mirror: Upthrust test

  • Structure/phase: Accumulation, Phase C, after a Spring #1 (Terminal Shakeout: heavy supply, deep penetration, high volume, wide ranges) or #2 (moderate penetration, volume and range both up). FR p140-145. Mirror: UTAD test (FR p148).
  • Entry trigger: revisit of the Spring area with narrowing ranges, decreasing volume, holding ABOVE the Spring/shakeout low. FR p145. Valid test candle (FR p128): volume smaller than the TWO previous candles; in strong-from-below environments (Spring) the test candle should be a DOWN candle with narrow range ("No Supply"). Mirror: "No Demand".
  • Confirmation: first hint demand is stepping in after a Spring #1 = volume stays high but ranges shrink (FR p140). A high-volume Spring must be successfully tested before the rally. W2 p243-244: at a Spring test, aggressive buyers pushing price up are the confirming trace (use SOS bar + reversal pattern).
  • Invalidation: the test makes a new extreme (FR p194); test lacks narrowing/decreasing volume = poor, expect more tests; large volume on the UTAD test or test does not stay below the UTAD high = doubt the shakeout (FR p148).
  • Stop: option A beyond the significant bar (below SOS bar for Spring test, above SOW bar for Upthrust test); option B beyond the whole shakeout extreme (below the Spring minimum / above the Upthrust maximum). FR p201. Which to use: unspecified, "to be backtested" (FR open).
  • Targets: Creek is the first TP (FR p127); "path to Creek wide", best R:R of all entries. Then 3.12.
  • Management: as 3.1.
  • AGREE: Wyckoff's favourite entry (FR p193); W2 R5 (trade the last shake). CONFLICT: W2 p242-243 prohibits a resting limit at the test because it bets on two movements; FR simply says enter on the test.

3.3 S3: Spring #2 / Spring #1 - patience variants (decision table from FR p140-145)

Type Penetration Volume / range Action
#1 / Terminal Shakeout deep volume surge, wide ranges Do not buy it; need demand influx (wide-range, relatively high-volume rebound); first hint = ranges shrink with volume still high; then wait for the test (3.2)
#2 moderate both up Floating supply exists; successive tests likely; buy the test
#3 slight volume falls, ranges narrow Direct entry (3.1)
Minor spring (inside range) local lows only Greater underlying strength; pros prefer shakeouts outside the range
A Spring that fails to break = important sign of strength (FR p143).

3.4 S4: Phase C by LPS/LPSY (Accumulation #2 / Distribution #2: no Spring/UTAD)

  • Structure/phase: Phase C test event is an LPS above the structure low (accumulation) / LPSY below the high (distribution) - underlying strength / weakness. FR p42-43, p47-48, p193-194; W2 p58.
  • Entry trigger: FR p43 says the ONLY viable buy is the BUEC (3.6); the first SOS that breaks the range is usually missed; the point of confidence of the Spring is lost; LPS entries are "often inoperable" because you cannot know in advance when the LPS will develop (FR p194).
  • Confirmation/invalidation: UA then failure to reach the bottom (W2 p58); accumulation without Spring: favour the BUEC and bullish continuation (W2 p60).
  • Stop/targets: as 3.6.
  • AGREE: FR and W2 both favour BUEC/LPSY in the no-shakeout case. EXTENDS: W2 explains it via structural failure.

3.5 S5: Phase D in-range trend move (SOS bar / minor structure / minor shakeout)

  • Structure/phase: after a successful shakeout + test; SOW/SOS before Creek/Ice; FR p195-197, App.2 p228.
  • Entry trigger (three forms):
    1. Significant candle: wait for an SOS bar (long) / SOW bar (short) inside the in-range trend move; "always very interesting" (FR p195). Wide range, volume rising, close in the extreme third (2.12).
    2. Minor structure: after Spring + test, drop to the middle of the structure and look for a minor re-accumulation (long), after Upthrust + test a minor redistribution (short). FR p196.
    3. Minor shakeout: a shakeout that does not span the whole structure (labelled LPS/LPSY); alternative to dropping timeframe. FR p196-197.
  • Confirmation: W2 p224-227: only filter = enough trajectory for good R:R; must reach/hold beyond operating levels. In profile terms: price breaks through LVN, VWAP, VPOC and tests them (W2 p234); for a long all levels below price (W2 p175).
  • Invalidation: Creek/Ice attempt that fails and makes a new shakeout the opposite way (FR p183).
  • Stop: minor re-accumulation -> below the structure minimum; minor redistribution -> above the structure maximum (FR p202).
  • Targets: Creek/Ice then liquidity (3.12).
  • Management: active management at range extremes since neither side has full control until the final imbalance (W2 p227).
  • AGREE: both books call the in-range trend move a Phase D opportunity. EXTENDS: W2 requires an HVN in favour and distance to run.

3.6 S6: Back-up / confirmation test of the break (BUEC, LPS after JAC; mirror LPSY / FTI)

  • Structure/phase: Phase D, Event 7. Wyckoff's own preferred entry (FR p162, p166, p196).
  • Entry trigger: after the SOS/JAC, price pulls back to the broken Creek (now support) on low volume, overlapping, small-range candles and does not re-enter the range (FR p164). Valid test candle: volume smaller than the two previous candles; "No Supply" bar; for strong environments a down candle, narrow range (FR p128); for weak environments (down break, UT) a narrow-range candle "No Demand". Entry options (FR p166): market order after an SOS bar, stop order at break of the bar, or limit at the level. W2 p234-235: wait in the broken Creek/Ice zone (an LVN), near VA extremes or the structure VPOC; if the VPOC is far from the broken extreme, QUARANTINE the scenario (price will go deeper into value) and use the failed-reversion trade that recovers the VA extreme.
  • Confirmation: (a) significant distance travelled in the break; (b) test on low volume, overlapping candles; (c) no re-entry (FR p163-166). Natural action: break with expanding range/volume, test with decreasing. Wait for successive tests if latent interest persists.
  • Invalidation: high volume in the test (latent interest, caution); wide-range high-volume corrective move cancels the break (price returns into the range, potential break was a shakeout); large candles with steady high volume and re-entry (FR p165-166).
  • Stop: BUEC/LPS after upside break -> below the SOS bar AND below the broken Creek; FTI/LPSY -> above the SOW bar AND above the broken Ice (FR p203). FR p166 also: "below the LPS". FR p127: stop "in the middle of the structure" (reaching it = probably a shakeout, not a break). Open ambiguity between these.
  • Targets: Fibonacci projection; 1:1 projection of total structure height; liquidity (FR p127); structure's profile VPOC or HVN (W2 p248).
  • Management: breakeven at first management zone.
  • AGREE: both say break is not the trade, the test is. CONFLICT: FR gives breakout stop "middle of structure" (p127) or below LPS; W2 stops beyond SOS bar + VPOC + LVN depending on R:R. W2 p234 adds the quarantine rule absent from FR.

3.7 S7: Break test in Phase D by order flow (continuation by control + test)

  • Entry trigger: if the reversal-pattern entry was missed, control then test: price returns to the control zone with LOW volume, next candle shows new initiative (high volume, new ASK imbalance for long). W2 p211-213. Drop to a smaller TF (15 -> 5 min) or wait for the test candle to close.
  • Condition: considerable distance to target remains.
  • Stop/target: as 3.6 with stop beyond the control zone.
  • EXTENDS FR; no FR counterpart.

3.8 S8: Phase E trend entries (SOS/SOW bar; minor structure; ordinary shakeout)

  • Structure/phase: after confirmation. FR p197-199, App.2 p228; W2 p231, p235-236.
  • Entry trigger: (1) SOS/SOW bar in fast markets so as not to be left out; (2) minor re-accumulation/redistribution on a lower TF in favour of the trend; (3) Ordinary Shakeout / Ordinary Upthrust (strong wide-range thrust with little preparation, volume high/medium/low; FR p144, p149, p199) treated as a Phase C shakeout entry.
  • Location (W2 p231, p236): Phase E gives no location. Wait for a corrective wave to an operating level (previous session VA extremes, WAP, VPOC; weekly VWAP; VPOC of the previous impulse via a fixed profile; LVNs). If the first level is too close, take the next so the pullback is proportional. Prefer confluence (VPOC + WAP). Ideal: minor structure developing above an operating level such as weekly VWAP.
  • Confirmation: trend only in the direction of the last accumulation/distribution until a structure forms the other way or the last relevant HVN breaks (below price in uptrend; just above price in downtrend). W2 p231.
  • Invalidation: first four Phase A events of the opposite structure (PSY/BC, AR, ST) = trend ended (FR p205-206). If the technical targets of the structure are already met, "quarantine" the entry (FR p128).
  • Stop: beyond the shakeout extreme or the minor structure end; stop beyond "shakeout + test outside the range" (FR p128, p202).
  • Targets: liquidity zones; climactic bar = reduce/exit (FR p204).
  • Note: Phase E is the "safest" since until Phase A events appear, continuation is the logical assumption (FR p198); smaller path (cause already used).
  • WARNING: declining volume in a Phase E trend is not necessarily divergence (supply absence; FR p213, p219).

3.9 S9: Distribution short setups (mirror of S1-S8) with distribution-specific traits

  • UTAD (moderate to strong volume), UTAD test (ranges and volume shrink = buyer exhaustion, stops below UTAD high; sell at the top of the test rally), LPSY (last distribution wave before the new impulse; high volume at the LPSY test may be sellers shorting, caution), SOW bar, FTI.
  • UTAD test not always present; prefer waiting for it to avoid shorting a genuine bullish break (JAC/MSOS) (FR p148).
  • Distribution is faster and more volatile; downsloping distribution: expect no LPSY or only shallow; missing the trade is acceptable, buying is not (W2 p39).
  • Ordinary Upthrust (shakeout in a downtrend with little preparation) = short in favour of the last distribution (FR p149).

3.10 S10: Sloped structures (W2 p30-43)

Type Bias Trade Evidence listed
Upsloping accumulation greatest strength BUEC (conservative; looks expensive) volume diminishing in structure; Weis bullish waves predominate; price blocked at HVN/VPOC then broken after shakeout; BUEC at Creek + weekly VWAP
Downsloping accumulation greatest weakness among accumulations long after structural failure + strong bullish impulse breaking the slope, then bearish pullback; wait SOT (new lows shorter); reacts to monthly VWAP and stays above it; volume decreasing vs SC; minor SOS after shakeout; LPS above structure VPOC; Back Up at Creek + weekly VWAP + VAH
Downsloping distribution greatest weakness short after UTAD (top overshoot or local relative high); more spectacular shake = more confidence NO SOT, NO structural failure; high volume in Phase A; unusual volume spikes in B; bearish Weis waves; price under HVN; LPSY retest of that HVN then SOW; UTAD test at the range VPOC meeting range top = ideal short zone
Upsloping distribution initial strength, ends in aggression short on UTAD or LPSY SOT among AR/UT/UTAD highs; weakness structural failure (not reaching the top); climactic volume mid-range; rejection at composite VA; price under VPOC with large bearish Weis wave; LPSY at broken structure + VPOC
All hard to trade and subjective; beginners work horizontal only (p28).

3.11 S11: Failed structure / structural failure trade (W2 p19-25)

  • Failure: all traces say accumulation (Spring, genuine bullish break by price and volume) but at BUEC the opposite side acts aggressively and the imbalance flips = trade the other side (failed accumulation is really distribution). Mirror for distribution.
  • Strength failure: price in LH/LL fails to reach the structure bottom after testing the top, and shakes out a relevant low = Spring with extra strength (W2 p25). Weakness: price fails to reach structure top = sellers emerging.
  • Confirmation (SOT): strong impulsive move opposite with HIGH volume, then join on pullback (W2 p27).
  • Invalidation: avoid buy-SOT after an up-shake; avoid bearish SOT after a Spring (W2 p27).
  • Not an immediate reversal signal (p24-25).

3.12 S12: Value-area setups (W2 p188-197, p222-264)

Setup Context Trigger / entry Stop Target
Range trade at extremes range, inside VA buy VAL / sell VAH with trigger (e.g. footprint imbalance at the Spring zone, case 8.4: ASK imbalance at Spring) beyond VA extreme and trigger candle min = VPOC, max = opposite VA extreme (80% rule)
Reversion price re-enters VA after a failed attempt to leave trigger at re-entry zone, e.g. interior test of VAH + weekly VWAP beyond the VA edge opposite VA extreme (adapted 80%)
Continuation price leaves VA and tests the edge wait for test of VAH/VAL (break test); aggressive entry after the intentional move that breaks VWAP/VPOC if no test beyond the broken level HVN/VPOC magnets, liquidity
Failed reversion reversion trade rejected at VPOC, or price accepted beyond close the reversion trade before its stop even at breakeven, or flip with context (W2 p263) n/a opposite
Last-HVN bias trade trend trade with the last HVN; short only after it breaks, on its test beyond the HVN next HVN VPOC
Pullback entry in trend away from value trend pullback to confluence of operating levels, trigger SOS/SOW bar or reversal/continuation model above/below all operating levels in favour of the position untested naked VPOC / DVPOC / previous liquidity
  • One-movement vs two-movement (W2 p237-238): one-movement = price is already on the right side of the zone (e.g. potential Spring, wait for the single down test then buy); two-movement = price must first go through the zone (e.g. potential Spring in a probable accumulation, price is below Creek: wait for the bullish break (1), then the test (2)).
  • Case-study checklists in W2 p252-264 (EURUSD 6E, GBPUSD 6B, ES, CAD 6C): each lists what/where/scenario/trigger; all place stop beyond the trigger candle and target naked VPOC, old HVN VPOC, or prior high (liquidity).
  • Preferred: initiative over absorption when in a context-supported zone (W2 p261-262).

3.13 S13: Scalp/tactical trades inside the structure (FR p113, p119-120)

  • Counter-trend scalp at the climax (experienced only): close at the AR; do not hold through the range (could be rotation or continuation). Text on direction is muddled (FR open).
  • Phase B: wait for price at extremes, trade the reversal either with a candle setup on the working TF or by dropping to a minor structure (upper zone -> minor distribution; lower zone -> minor accumulation).
  • Reaction (AR) scalps: after SC+AR look for a minor distribution ending the AR and turning down toward the ST (FR p113).

3.14 Target catalogue (shared by all setups)

FR p204-208; W2 p247-249.

  1. Climactic bar (large range, speed, volume at an extreme) = exit or reduce, esp. when there is no price action to the left. FR p204.
  2. After Phase A events of the opposite structure (PSY/BC, AR, ST) = conclude the trend ended and close; trend might resume, cannot know, take profit. New structure should develop in the TF where the previous was identified. FR p205-206.
  3. Liquidity zones: SC lows / AR lows (accumulation structures start), BC highs / AR highs; prior swings on own and higher TF; best: identify them on the SHORTEST TFs, set targets, then use developing structures to enter with those levels in mind. If a nearer zone forms during the move, pull the target in. FR p206-208.
  4. Volume profile: HVN in the direction (target is the HVN's VPOC, not the HVN edge), VPOC of previous sessions, naked VPOC, untested DVPOC, weekly/monthly VWAP. More recent zones attract more. Tested DVPOCs are invalid. W2 p247-249.
  5. Fibonacci, 1:1 projection of range height, Elliott/harmonics (FR p50, p127); P&F no longer used (FR p204).
  6. Count: P&F count details kept in Section 4 (cause and effect).

3.15 Agreement / conflict summary table

# Topic FR W2 Status
C1 Must you identify all Phase A events? Four events (PS, SC, AR, ST) confirm; potential PS retrospective Not required; sufficient = trend objectively stopped + change of character (W2 p10-12) CONFLICT (W2 relaxes)
C2 Phase proportions (B longer than A and C) Guideline, "very likely" (p179) Do not impose in real time (p46) CONFLICT (soft)
C3 Spring-less accumulation Only BUEC viable (p43) Structural failure explains LPS-based break; favour BUEC (p58-60) AGREE
C4 Entry order Market/stop/limit all fine (p166) Stop recommended; limit that bets on two movements forbidden (p242-243) CONFLICT
C5 Targets by P&F Described p47-50, then abandoned p204 Not used; volume profile + liquidity AGREE (FR self-corrects)
C6 Trailing stop Mostly not used; test it (p203) Not discussed; breakeven at first zone (p259) AGREE (no trail default)
C7 Stop after break test Below LPS / "middle of structure" / below SOS bar + Creek Below trigger candle, below structure, beyond VPOC; stop beyond as many levels as possible, check R:R EXTENDS / ambiguous
C8 Risk per trade 1% max, R:R positive (p206-207) No numbers; "not worth the candle" test FR only
C9 Close position when Phase A events of new structure develop Yes (p205) W2 p73-75 adds minor-structure reading AGREE
C10 Climax Do not enter at the climax (p92) Not discussed FR only
C11 Volume as indicator Primary (harmony/divergence) Price is MORE relevant than volume; volume context-dependent (p13) CONFLICT (soft)
C12 Lines/trend breaks Break is not a reversal; line is useful Lines in isolation never operational (p48-49) AGREE (W2 stricter)
C13 Test of shakeout is "Wyckoff's favourite" Yes (p193) Test is the more conservative entry; shakeout itself more aggressive (p233) AGREE
C14 Decision on missing a trade "Do not chase" implicit Explicit: do not chase; capital preserved (p250) AGREE
C15 Directional context Higher TF structure rules (p187) Last HVN / last shake rules; context can override a single level (p21-22, p177) EXTENDS
C16 Spring #3 (supply exhaustion) Buy directly (p142) Footprint ASK imbalance at the Spring (case 8.4) AGREE
C17 Weis wave settings not given not given OPEN

4. RISK AND POSITION RULES

4.1 Hard rules from the books

  1. Risk per position: fixed percentage of the account computed from entry-to-stop distance; "recommended not above 1%". Example: 1% of 5000 EUR = 50 EUR; with R:R 1:3, win 150 or lose 50. FR p206-207 [B].
  2. Never take a negative R:R trade (risk greater than reward) generally. FR p207 [B].
  3. Send entry, stop loss and take profit simultaneously (avoid emotional moving of the stop; avoid unprotected positions after broker disconnect). If analysis is right, all three are identifiable before entry. FR p206 [B].
  4. Stop is where the scenario is invalidated (FR p200): beyond the other side of the SOS/SOW bar AND beyond the whole scenario. Detail per setup: Section 3. W2 p245: stop beyond as many trading levels and zones as possible; first zone sought = LVN; also check that R:R remains acceptable ("whether the game is worth the candle", p246).
  5. Trailing stop: author mostly does NOT use it (leaves little room, gets hit easily); test objectively. FR p203-204.
  6. Breakeven / partial: protect the position at the first management zone (e.g. test of VAH): close all, or leave some contracts but at least move SL to entry (W2 p259). On failed reversion: close before the stop even at breakeven, or flip long if longer-term context favours (W2 p263).
  7. Direction discipline: do not trade both directions at once until consistently profitable. FR p19-21. Beginners start with long-term trading until consistent; short-term needs perfect timing (FR p19).
  8. Higher-TF context: do not trade against the wider structure (FR p188). If you read accumulation, discard shorts (may miss the move but avoid the wrong side).
  9. Leverage: when confluence conflicts (e.g. entry below weekly WAP for a buy), reduce leverage (CFD rather than futures). W2 p264. The same asset can be traded by futures (short term), CFD (medium), spot/ETF (long).
  10. Do not chase: if price leaves without you and the base idea is unchanged, wait for a new zone; a correct analysis alone is a positive; capital preservation. W2 p250.
  11. Backtest requirement (FR p168-169, p199): objectify the trigger (e.g. bearish candle then bullish candle, bullish candle above N pips, buy stop at the break; above POC/VAH/VAL/VWAP; Delta increase) and backtest accounting for data quality, spreads, commissions, swap, slippage, optimisation issues. A 100% objective Wyckoff strategy "seems impossible" (p168).
  12. Liquidity: only liquid instruments; manipulation risk. W2 p112.
  13. Do not use news (FR p17).
  14. Scenario discipline: do not keep a scenario permanently; project only the next move (W2 p51-52).

4.2 Targets and cause-and-effect sizing

  1. P&F count (kept for completeness; the author no longer uses it, FR p204): count columns from the LPS (accumulation) back to PS or SC; from LPSY back to PSY or BC; re-accumulation from LPS back to AR (first event where demand shows); re-distribution from LPSY back to AR. Figure = boxes x box value. Classic projection: add to LPS/LPSY price. Moderate: add to the highest/lowest extreme (UT/BC for distribution, SP/SC for accumulation; book wording loose). Conservative: split the range into phases and count each. FR p47-49. A wide range does not mean all of it is accumulation; counts often do not reach the largest target (p49).
  2. Alternative: vertical projection of range height 1:1, Fibonacci. FR p50, p127.
  3. Cause is proportional to range time/effort; re-accumulation duration depends on how much stock remains in strong hands (FR p46, p69, p78).

4.3 Order-type facts

  • Market = aggressive, entry guaranteed, price not. Limit = passive, price guaranteed, execution not. Stop = becomes market at the level. Stop-limit = becomes limit. Buy Stop above price; Buy Limit below; Sell Stop below; Sell Limit above. W2 p120-122.
  • Stop orders do not fully protect against absorption-reversals, but filter candles that looked intentional and then reversed (W2 p242).
  • Advanced instruction list (OCO, OSO, IOC, FOK, AON, MIT, LIT, GTC/GTD) in W2 p123-124; GTC defined there as session-length (differs from the usual meaning).

5. SCORING RUBRIC (observable checklist)

5.0 How to use

  • Score on the CLOSED bars of the chart as of a decision bar. Never score using bars after it. Label retrospectively only for training/labelling, never for entries.
  • Every item is yes/no (Y/N) or 0-3 with explicit observable criteria.
  • Numbers marked [P] are proposals by this playbook to make the books' "relative" words observable; the books give no numbers. They must be fitted on your own instrument. [B] = the book gives the number.
  • Reference definitions used throughout (observable on any OHLCV chart):
    • ATR = 14-bar average true range on the working timeframe. Range = high - low of a bar. Wide bar = range >= 1.3 x ATR(14) [P]; narrow bar = range <= 0.7 x ATR(14) [P].
    • Relative volume (RV) = bar volume / average volume of the prior 20 bars. High volume = RV >= 1.5 [P]; low volume = RV <= 0.7 [P]; climactic = RV >= 2.5 and the highest in 60 bars [P].
    • Close location (CL) = (close - low)/(high - low). Upper third = CL >= 0.67; lower third = CL <= 0.33 [B for third, W2 p241].
    • Swing high/low: fractal with 3 bars each side [P] (state the N you use).
    • Range (structure) box: highest swing high and lowest swing low from the first bar after the AR confirms until now. Top zone = upper third of the box; bottom zone = lower third [P].
    • Penetration: a bar whose low is below (or high above) the reference line.

5.1 Context items

ID Item Score Exact thing to look at
C1 Trend before the range 0/1 1 = at least 3 consecutive impulses with HH+HL (or LL+LH) before the first Phase A candidate, on the TF above the working TF. FR p18-19.
C2 Prior-trend direction up / down / none From C1. Decides whether the structure candidate is accumulation (after down) or distribution (after up).
C3 Stopping action present Y/N A swing in the opposite direction that is the largest since the prior trend began (AR distance > 1.5 x the average of the last 3 swings in the old direction) [P; the book's own example is 100 vs 50, FR p110].
C4 Range length 0-3 Bars between AR and now: 0 <20, 1 20-49, 2 50-99, 3 >=100 on the working TF [P]. Cause and effect, FR p45-46.
C5 Higher-TF alignment -1 / 0 / +1 +1 if the TF above is in an accumulation/uptrend (long) or distribution/downtrend (short); -1 against; 0 range/unclear. FR p187-188.
C6 Random-range flag Y/N Y if there is no C3 and fewer than 2 touches on each side of the box; skip. FR p35, p46.
C7 Liquid asset Y/N Centralised, spread < 5% of ATR [P]. W2 p112.

5.2 Structure items

ID Item Score Exact thing to look at
S1 Touches of both box sides 0-3 Count swing highs within 0.25 ATR [P] of the top and swing lows within 0.25 ATR of the bottom. 0 = fewer than 2 total, 1 = 2-3, 2 = 4-5, 3 = 6+. W2 p23.
S2 Creek/Ice identified Y/N A horizontal line through the AR extreme and the highest Phase B swing within 0.25 ATR of it. FR p40. Which Phase B highs count is not fixed (flag).
S3 Climax candidate 0-3 0 none; 1 RV >= 1.5 bar at the extreme; 2 RV >= 2.5 and widest bar of 60; +1 if the bar is a long wick (wick >= 50% of range) closing against the move. FR p89-94.
S4 Exhaustion variant Y/N At the final low/high: three successive lower lows (or higher highs) each with RV <= 1.0 and range <= ATR. FR p105-109.
S5 ST valid 0-2 Retest within 0.5 ATR of the climax extreme (or beyond it by less than 0.5 ATR): 1 if RV(ST) < RV(climax); +1 if range(ST) < range(climax). FR p120-121.
S6 Slope 0/1 Slope of the line through Phase A and B lows (and highs) exceeds 0.1 ATR per 10 bars [P]; if 1, run the sloped-structure checklist (W2 p30-43) instead of the horizontal one.
S7 Weak AR flag Y/N AR overlapping bars (>= 60% overlap bar to bar), distance < the average swing, no RV >= 1.5 bar. FR p111.
S8 Failed attempt to leave count Number of times price closed outside the box and then closed back inside within 3 bars. Both books call this a shakeout/test.
S9 Phase-B tests enum Last Phase B probe at: upper extreme (UA/UT), lower extreme (ST as SOW/mSOW), both, none. FR p123-124.
S10 Last HVN location above / below / none Highest-volume node of the profile of the LAST impulse relative to price. W2 p174-175, p227.

5.3 Phase items

ID Item Score Exact thing to look at
P1 Current phase A/B/C/D/E/none A: bars from the climax to the ST; B: after the ST until a shakeout bar; C: from the shakeout bar to its test; D: from the test until a close beyond Creek/Ice and its pullback ends; E: beyond. Label by sequence, not by shape. FR p175-186.
P2 B longer than A and C Y/N Count bars. Reporting only (W2 p46 says do not require).
P3 Volume trend through the range -1 / 0 / +1 Linear regression slope of RV over the box: negative = +1 for accumulation (decline), +1 for distribution requires flat/high (>= 1.2 mean RV). FR p66, p75; W2 p62-63.
P4 Bar-quality tilt -1 / 0 / +1 Within the box, are up bars wider and smoother than down bars (sum of up-bar ranges / sum of down-bar ranges > 1.2 => +1 accumulation; < 0.83 => distribution). FR p66, p75 [P threshold].
P5 Higher highs and higher lows late in the range Y/N In the last third of the box, 2 successive higher lows and 1 higher high (accumulation) or mirror. FR p66, p75.

5.4 Event items (shakeout is the most important group, W2 p58)

ID Item Score Exact thing to look at
E1 Shakeout present Y/N A bar whose low (high) is beyond the Phase A/B extreme AND that closes back inside the box within 3 bars. W2 p135; FR p135 (fewer bars = stronger).
E2 Shakeout speed 0-3 Bars from penetration until the close is back inside: 3 = 1 bar, 2 = 2 bars, 1 = 3 bars, 0 = more than 3 (becomes a minor structure, E4). FR p135.
E3 Shakeout depth 0-3 Penetration depth (distance beyond the extreme): 0 < 0.25 ATR, 1 < 0.5, 2 < 1.0, 3 >= 1.0 ATR (Terminal Shakeout candidate). Stronger = bigger sweep (FR p181; W2 p231).
E4 Shakeout type (Spring number) #1 / #2 / #3 / none #3 = penetration < 0.5 ATR with RV < 1.0 and range < ATR at the lowest bar; #2 = RV in [1.0, 2.0) and range >= ATR; #1 = RV >= 2.0 and range >= 1.3 ATR with deep penetration. FR p140-143 [P thresholds; the book is qualitative].
E5 Shakeout test Y/N Within the next 10 bars [P], price revisits within 1 ATR of the shakeout extreme, does not close beyond it, with range narrower than the shakeout bar and RV smaller than the TWO previous bars. FR p128, p145.
E6 Test holds Y/N The test low (high) is above (below) the shakeout extreme. FR p194.
E7 Response to shakeout 0-3 After the shakeout, 0 = new extreme within 10 bars; 1 = bounce stalls mid-box; 2 = reaches mid-box; 3 = touches the opposite third without closing beyond the shakeout level. W2 p58-61.
E8 Mislabel check Y/N A shakeout counts as Spring/UTAD ONLY if it leads to the structure break; otherwise it is a test/UT (FR p138). This can only be labelled retrospectively: flag as hindsight-only.
E9 SOS bar present after the shakeout Y/N Bar with range >= 1.3 ATR, RV >= 1.5, CL >= 0.67 (bull) / <= 0.33 (bear), and close above a prior swing high (bull) / below a prior swing low (bear). FR p201-203; W2 p241.
E10 Break of Creek/Ice Y/N Close beyond the line by >= 0.25 ATR [P]; "evident distance" FR p155.
E11 Break authenticity 0-4 +1 no close back inside within 3 bars; +1 breakout bar range >= 1.3 ATR and RV >= 1.5; +1 next 2 bars narrow and RV below the breakout; +1 at least 1 ATR from the line within 5 bars. FR p154-156; W2 p229-230.
E12 Re-entry Y/N Any close back inside the box after the break within 5 bars: Y = failed break (FR p165-166).
E13 Time after the break Y/N More than 20 bars [P] of sideways action before the first impulse = weak (W2 p230).
E14 Back-up quality 0-3 +1 pullback within 0.5 ATR of Creek/Ice; +1 RV < the break bar and < 0.7 average; +1 does not close inside the box. FR p164; W2 p234.
E15 Pullback depth proportional Y/N The pullback retraces less than 50% of the break impulse [P]. W2 p236 (proportionality; no number).

5.5 Volume / effort items

ID Item Score Exact thing to look at
V1 Harmony vs divergence (candle) -1 / 0 / +1 Wide + high volume or narrow + low = +1 ; narrow + high, wide + low = -1 (3 definitions above). FR p55.
V2 Follow-through -1 / 0 / +1 After a high-volume candle (RV >= 1.5), next 3 bars progress at least 0.5 ATR in its direction = +1; reverse = -1. FR p56.
V3 Impulse vs reversal volume -1 / 0 / +1 Mean RV of the last impulse leg vs the previous: increasing = +1 (harmony); decreasing = -1. For reversal legs the opposite. FR p57.
V4 Wave volume (Weis) -1 / 0 / +1 Sum volume per swing leg (swing definition from the reference); compare last up-wave to previous up-wave and to the last down-wave. Settings not given by the books (flag). W2 p63-65.
V5 Level reaction -1 / 0 / +1 Approach with RV >= 1.5: breaks = +1; stalls/fails = -1. FR p59-60.
V6 SOT Y/N After 3+ same-direction thrusts each new extreme travels < the previous. W2 p26-27. If thrust count > 4 flag "too strong to counter-trade".
V7 SOT volume high / low RV of the last thrust: >=1.5 = divergence; <= 0.7 = exhaustion.
V8 Climactic volume at extreme Y/N See reference. Exit/reduce signal (FR p204).

5.6 Volume-profile items

ID Item Score Exact thing to look at
VP1 Price vs VPOC +1 / 0 / -1 Above the VPOC of the structure profile by > 0.25 ATR = +1; below = -1; within = 0 (avoid trading). W2 p150.
VP2 VA position in / above / below Close vs VAL/VAH of the previous complete session or the structure profile.
VP3 Last HVN above / below Last HVN (see S10). W2 p174.
VP4 Confluence count 0-4 Count of operating levels (VPOC, WAP, VAH/VAL, naked VPOC, structure Creek/Ice) within 0.25 ATR of the entry zone. W2 p190, p236.
VP5 Levels on the right side Y/N For a long: all VPOC/WAP/VAH/VAL candidates BELOW price; short: above. W2 p175.
VP6 Auction at the break extreme completed / unfinished / unclear Volume in the extreme bin of the profile < 0.3 x max bin [P] = completed; >= 0.6 x max [P] = unfinished HVN. W2 p148-149.
VP7 VPOC far from the broken extreme Y/N Distance from the broken Creek/Ice to the profile VPOC > 1.5 ATR [P]; Y = quarantine the break-test scenario. W2 p235.
VP8 Value-area principle in play range / reversion / continuation / failed reversion Per rules 2.9.9.
VP9 Naked VPOC / untested DVPOC in the target direction Y/N Y = candidate target. W2 p248.

5.7 Order-flow items (only if tick/bid-ask data exists)

ID Item Score Exact thing to look at
O1 Absorption candle Y/N RV >= 1.5; imbalances (>= 300 % [P]) on the side against the close; close against the imbalance; next bar fails to continue. W2 p202-203.
O2 Initiative candle Y/N RV >= 1.5; imbalance in favour of the close; CL in the favourable third; immediate follow-through. W2 p204.
O3 Control candle 0-3 1 imbalance; 2 imbalances; 3 consecutive imbalances at different levels; must also close in the favourable third and have RV >= 1.5. W2 p210-211.
O4 Test of the control Y/N Price returns to the control level, with lower volume, and next candle shows initiative. W2 p212.
O5 Delta divergence Y/N Delta sign opposite to the candle direction in a key zone. W2 p140-141; not alone.

5.8 Trigger and trade-quality items

ID Item Score Exact thing to look at
T1 Trigger type enum SOS/SOW bar; minor structure; minor shakeout; BUEC test; ordinary shakeout; order-flow reversal; order-flow continuation. Section 3.
T2 Significant-bar compliance 0-4 One point each: range wider than the preceding candles (>= 1.3 ATR), volume higher (RV >= 1.5), close in the extreme third, closes beyond a prior resistance/support. FR p201-203.
T3 Control reversed Y/N Close beyond the extreme of the last opposite significant bar. FR p203-205.
T4 Distance to target / R:R number (nearest valid target - entry) / (entry - stop). Must be >= 1; the book recommends a 1:3 example (FR p207) [B example].
T5 Target available enum Which: Creek / liquidity / HVN VPOC / naked VPOC / opposite extreme.
T6 Alternative scenario defined Y/N The opposite-side trigger level is written down. W2 p239.
T7 Scenario type one-movement / two-movement Is price already on the right side of the zone? W2 p237.
T8 Long-term stage agreement Y/N C5 >= 0.

5.9 Combined directional score (suggested, not from the books)

Weights follow the books' stated order of importance (W2 p55, p59):

  • Shakeout group (E1,E2,E3,E5,E6,E7): 40%.
  • Phase D bar and break (E9-E14): 25%.
  • Global volume (P3,P4,V1-V4): 15%.
  • Profile levels (VP1-VP6): 10%.
  • Order flow (O1-O4): 10%, ONLY at a pre-identified zone. Score each group 0..1 from its items (items normalised). Trade only if long group score and C5 do not contradict and T4 >= 1 and E12 = N.

5.10 Items that CANNOT be made fully observable (flag)

  1. Whether a range is random vs accumulation vs distribution (FR p35, p46; W2 p78): hindsight-only. The checklist reports evidence, not truth.
  2. Mislabeling rule (Spring only if it causes the break) (FR p138): hindsight-only (E8).
  3. PS as "potential" vs true (FR p87): retrospective by definition.
  4. Which Phase B highs form the Creek (FR p40).
  5. Weis wave settings (swing/reversal threshold) not given (W2 p63).
  6. Imbalance threshold (200/300/400 %) and minimum contracts are the trader's choice (W2 p200).
  7. "Ease of movement" in real SOS/MSOW (FR p157-159): proxied by RV/range/CL only.
  8. Last HVN size/threshold (W2 p174).
  9. Time consumption in VPOC migration (what is "too much") (W2 p182-186). Proposed 20 bars is arbitrary.
  10. Spring #1/#2/#3 boundary (FR p140-143): the numeric split in E4 is a proposal.
  11. Which stop to use for shakeout tests: bar vs extreme (FR open).
  12. Relabel timing of a failed Spring ("at least a minor SOS", W2 p52).
  13. Re-accumulation vs distribution at the start (FR p70, p77): no criterion given beyond the Section 2.6 volume traits.
  14. Reading ordered by priority "last shake vs prior structure" (W2 R5 vs R6 conflict) is judgement.
  15. Tick-level data (footprint, DOM): not observable from OHLCV bars.

6. WHAT THE BOOKS SAY FAILS (warnings)

6.1 About the method

  • Markets never replicate the schematics; no two structures are identical; fixed models are a mistake (FR p38, p210).
  • Not just labelling; labels are secondary and function matters; do not analyse "to the millimetre like a robot" (FR p181, p210-211; W2 p10-12, p251-253).
  • Labelling past charts works for anything (hindsight); labelling chart patterns (H&S, triangles) is invalid operationally (W2 p44).
  • Wyckoff + profile classifications (day type, structure type) are only confirmable a posteriori (W2 p165).
  • Discretionary Wyckoff is subjective and not necessarily profitable for everyone; fully objective strategy seems impossible, only the trigger can be quantified (FR p168).
  • Real-time labels are uncertain until price leaves the range (FR p122); accumulation vs distribution cannot be known in real time (W2 p55).
  • Perfect patterns rarely occur (W2 p180).

6.2 Reading errors

  • Weakness is not a trend change (FR p22). Trend-line break alone is not a reversal (FR p28-29). Too steep a line is wrong (FR p28). Do not draw lines indiscriminately (FR p25). Lines in isolation have no operational value (W2 p48-49).
  • "More buyers than sellers" is false: always equal (FR p49; W2 p111). Do not read ASK-executed volume as buying intent or BID as selling (W2 p136-137).
  • Volume in an up wave is not all buying (FR p58). Check a "reversal" is a real reversal before applying volume rules (FR p57-58).
  • Intraday volume without session context is misleading; OTC/dark pool volume is not the full market (W2 p13-14, p90, p94). Volume analysis only reliable on centralised markets (FR p211).
  • Visible order-book liquidity is not real: spoofing and icebergs (W2 p126-128).
  • Footprint/delta is very subjective; same action shows on different columns by order type; do not trade it alone; positive delta with falling price is common; not all divergences reverse (W2 p132, p136-143).
  • Hedgers/arbitrageurs also trade and have no directional intent (W2 p83, p143).
  • Developing profiles are less reliable than completed ones (W2 p232). Fixed-range profiles do not update (W2 p156). VWAP loses meaning once the market is in imbalance (W2 p151). Old zones lose significance (W2 p145).
  • Mirrored P/b profile = late entry (W2 p167, p169). V reversals practically untradable (W2 p184). Late-session imbalance closing outside value is less useful (W2 p181).

6.3 Structure-specific failures

  • A range may be random; not every range is a cause (FR p46). A wide range does not mean the whole is accumulation; P&F counts often miss the largest target (FR p49). P&F is subjective (FR p50).
  • Sideways action after a climax (no AR/ST) probably means continuation (FR p89-90). A short, interleaved, low-volume AR = no equilibrium: do not assume accumulation/distribution (FR p111).
  • Re-accumulation vs distribution (and redistribution vs accumulation) is the most dangerous confusion (FR p70, p77).
  • A Spring/Upthrust does not always occur (FR p64, p73); Spring-less structures are harder, the first SOS is usually missed (FR p43). Shakeout-less structures: almost always a small shakeout is expected inside (FR p214).
  • A shakeout that does not cause the break is just a test (FR p138). A Spring with no minor SOS: relabel as a test (W2 p52). Spring #1 with big volume must be tested before long (FR p145). Not testing the Spring = may come later (FR p145).
  • A climax is not always the extreme of the range (FR p90).
  • Do not hold the climax-bounce trade through the range (FR p113). Do not open at the climax (FR p92).
  • UTAD test absent: waiting avoids shorting a genuine JAC/MSOS (FR p148).
  • Breakout: not a trade (FR p156); high volume in the confirmation test = caution (FR p165); wide-range high-volume corrective move voids the break (FR p166); excessive time after the break weakens it (W2 p230).
  • Algorithms and momentum strategies amplify shakeout moves (FR p136).
  • Failed structures: the trader's horizon and the intervention of bigger traders at the test are unknown (W2 p21, p53-54).
  • Structural failure signals are not immediate reversal signs (W2 p24-25). SOT with more than 4 thrusts: trend may be too strong (W2 p27). Do not take a buy-SOT after an up-shake (W2 p27).
  • Sloped structures: hard to trade and subjective; must be visual not forced (W2 p32, p36). Downsloping distribution is fast: missing the trade is acceptable, buying is not (W2 p39).
  • Phase E: declining volume is not necessarily divergence (FR p213, p219).
  • V-turn / hypodermic accumulations exist but are less likely (FR p87, p189).
  • Not all institutions are winners; many lose (FR p183-184; W2 p82).
  • Third scenario risk at Creek/Ice (FR p183). Trap: far VPOC stop destroys R:R (W2 p246).

6.4 Trading behaviour

  • Do not trade against the stage of the cycle (FR p16-17). Do not trade both directions at once (FR p20-21).
  • Sending only the entry and setting the stop later leads to emotional stop widening (FR p206).
  • Trailing stops get hit easily (FR p204).
  • Limit orders that bet on two movements fail (W2 p242-244); stop orders do not fully protect against absorption (W2 p242).
  • Do not chase price (W2 p250). Being right on context does not guarantee profit (W2 p244).
  • Do not try to control every move; single asset on small TF with lots of labels = "perfect combination for ruin" (W2 p78).
  • Do not clutter charts (W2 p66). Do not descend TFs before context is clear (W2 p67, p72).
  • Most retail traders lose; avoid market-maker brokers (conflict of interest) (W2 p79, p89-90). Retail EAs are not HFT and generally not very efficient (W2 p87).
  • Illiquid assets are manipulable (W2 p80, p112).
  • Needs sufficiently liquid assets (W2 p264).

7. OPEN / SUBJECTIVE POINTS

7.1 Never quantified in either book

  • "High / low volume", "wide / narrow range", "much lower volume at the ST", "prolonged trend", "relatively", "good volume", "enough distance", "not excessive time after breakout", "proportional pullback", "drying volume", "narrowing ranges" (FR p134; W2 p135, p235). The only numbers: AR 100 vs 50 points as a "stronger" illustration (FR p110); SOT minimum 3 thrusts, caution at more than 4 (W2 p26-27); risk 1% (FR p207); VA = 68.2% (W2 p146-147); 80% rule; imbalance 200/300/400 % (W2 p200); close in upper/lower third (W2 p241, p210); Initial Balance first hour (W2 p162).
  • Threshold for Spring #1/#2/#3; how deep an ST as SOW may go; how to tell UA from a break (FR p122, p140-143).
  • When a range is "random"; how many touches validate a line or a structure; how steep a line may be (FR p25, p28; W2 p23-24).
  • CHoCH exact trigger bar (FR p40; W2 p150): "from the Phase C low to the SOS high" only.
  • Creek: which Phase B highs (FR p40).
  • Weis wave settings; P&F box size and reversal amount (FR p50; W2 p63).
  • Value-area principles: time thresholds for migration, which HVN is "last", how strongly "rejected" at the VPOC (W2 p174, p182-186, p195).
  • Profile span choice: previous session / week / composite; fixed vs variable; "shortest timeframes" for liquidity targets (FR p207; W2 p233).
  • How close the VPOC must be before quarantine; how far the next operating level may be (W2 p235-236).
  • Stop buffer: no ticks/ATR specified (FR p200-203); which stop option (candle vs extreme) for shakeout tests; "middle of the structure" is an example (FR p127).
  • Take profit: partial vs full at VAH, size of partials (W2 p259); which zone when several.
  • Order type for entry (W2 p242).
  • How "many Phase A events (four)" are enough to close a position; which TF to match (FR p205-206).
  • Imbalance count (1 vs 2 vs 3) and software settings (W2 p210).
  • Slope threshold ("slope indicates strength"); when to switch from horizontal to sloped (FR p224; W2 p28-31).

7.2 Real conflicts left to judgement

  1. Last shake vs latent imbalance of the prior structure (W2 p21 vs p22).
  2. FR "entry at shakeout only if low volume; else wait for test" vs W2 "do not wait with a limit order for the test".
  3. FR "break test stop in the middle of the structure" vs W2 "stop beyond the SOS bar + VPOC".
  4. FR "Phase B longer than A and C" vs W2 "do not impose".
  5. FR p92 (counter-trend position at the climax direction muddled).
  6. FR p87-88 "V-turn accumulation less likely".
  7. Re-accumulation vs distribution discrimination (FR p70 ff.) relies on volume traits; no operational test.
  8. FR p166: "stop below the LPS and the Creek is broken" ambiguous.
  9. "Operating zone" vs "wrong side of context" subjective (FR p194).
  10. MSOW can be the 2nd, 3rd or 4th attempt to break the Ice (FR p159): no count rule.

7.3 Digest-level defects to be aware of

  • FR digest: printed vs shard page offsets (pdf = book + 10); some FR digest page tags are shard numbers (FR p105-156 digest uses shard numbers; the digest says "pNNN = shard"). Page refs in this playbook mix; where a tag could be either, use it as a hint only.
  • FR OCR defects: "ligne d'arbre" = pivot; "ligne de soumission" = supply line; "Línea de demanda/oferta" figure labels untranslated Spanish (FR p27).
  • FR p94 "limits of the distribution area" for SC is an evident error for accumulation area. FR p47 re-distribution count says "LPS" evidently meaning LPSY. W2 p136 "buy stop" for a long's stop loss is a typo for sell stop.
  • Appendix tables (FR p227-228) were read from rotated images; rows 3-4 wording may be slightly off.
  • W2 GTC definition (session-length) is non-standard.

APPENDIX A. TIGHT LABELLING SCHEMA (6 fields)

Goal: a schema two people can fill identically from closed bars. Built from the rubric items most likely to be observed consistently (those with explicit price/volume numbers and no hindsight). Each field is scored at the decision bar only.

# Field Values Rubric items it uses Why it is consistent
1 range_state none / range(box defined) C3, S1, S2, C6 Box = highest swing high and lowest swing low since the AR; needs 4 touches within 0.25 ATR (S1 >= 2). Pure geometry.
2 prior_trend_dir up / down / none C1, C2 3 consecutive impulses with HH+HL (or LL+LH) before the range on the TF above; pure geometry.
3 shakeout none / spring_like / utad_like + (speed 1-3, depth 0-3) E1, E2, E3 A bar penetrates the box extreme and closes back inside within 3 bars; depth measured in ATR. Does not require volume or hindsight (no Spring #1/#2/#3 split).
4 break_state none / break_up / break_down / failed (re-entry within 5 bars) + authenticity 0-4 E10, E11, E12 Close beyond Creek/Ice by >= 0.25 ATR; E11 = four yes/no sub-checks, each a price/volume measure.
5 trigger_bar none / SOS_bar / SOW_bar + T2 score (0-4) E9, T2 Four numeric tests per bar (range, RV, CL third, close beyond a prior swing).
6 volume_tilt +1 / 0 / -1 P3, V2 Slope of RV across the box and follow-through after RV >= 1.5 bars: both are computed from OHLCV.

Excluded on purpose (not consistently observable): phase label, Spring #1/#2/#3, PS/ST/AR event names, Weis wave, last-HVN, imbalance/delta items, random-range flag, mislabel check (see 5.10).

Labelling order: field 2 -> 1 -> 3 -> 4 -> 5 -> 6. A paper trade is tagged long when (range_state = range, prior_trend_dir = down, shakeout = spring_like with speed >= 2, then trigger_bar = SOS_bar, break_state not failed, volume_tilt >= 0). Short is the mirror. Anything else is "no trade".