SniperGold_ML/docs/P3_GOV_2_CLAIM_EVIDENCE_MATRIX.md

P3-GOV-2 — CLAIM → EVIDENCE MATRIX

Document type : GOVERNANCE / AUDIT (P3-GOV-2 repository truth audit)
Created       : 2026-08-28
Verification  : Every row is checked against the authoritative Git repository,
                committed artifacts, and machine-readable evidence.
Status legend : VERIFIED / SUPPORTED / PARTIALLY SUPPORTED / CONTRADICTED / UNVERIFIED

A claim is VERIFIED only when repository/artifact/Git evidence supports it. A matching report alone is never sufficient.

Verification status total

• Core commit/artifact chain: VERIFIED (all claimed SHAs resolve, exist, and are reachable from origin/main; all reports + handovers present).
• Machine-evidence phases: VERIFIED / SUPPORTED (canonical values reproduced from committed JSON).
• Documentation narrative (README / DECISION_GATE): CONTRADICTED (stale).

Matrix

Claim	Claimed Source	Actual Evidence (Git/artifacts)	Git Proof	Remote Proof	Status
Phase chain S18 → S25 → S25.1C → S25.1D → GOV-1 completed	docs/PROJECT_PHASE_INDEX.md, handovers	Each claimed Close SHA resolves to a commit containing the phase report/handover	git rev-parse OK for all; parents link	all reachable from origin/main	VERIFIED
P3-S20 frozen pooled OOS 0.5792 (old population)	WE.WS20 report	ml/p3/baseline/output/p3_s20_summary.json → pooled_oos_logistic.roc_auc = 0.579160...; final A_STABLE_WEAK_SIGNAL	committed (7c9602ca49)	reachable	VERIFIED
P3-S22.3 corrected UTC M30 construction	P3_S22_3_RESEARCH_M30_REPAIR.md	namespace ml/p3/p3_s223_m30_repair/ committed (oracle + regression/mutation JSON)	0ee811e...	reachable	SUPPORTED
P3-S22.4 corrected population (707=610+97) validated, classification B	P3_S22_4 report	final_classification.json → B_VALIDATED_WITH_MINOR_DOCUMENTED_LIMITATIONS; ml_ready true	e6339e...	reachable	VERIFIED
P3-S23 corrected pooled ROC-AUC 0.5235 (0.46 fold3)	.S23 report	p3_s23_summary.json → pooled_oos_logistic.roc_auc = 0.523527...; mutation_all_detected=true; B_WEAK_INCONSISTENT_SIGNAL	a6a804b7ce	reachable	VERIFIED
P3-S24 classification D (edge NOT demonstrated)	P3_S24_RESEARCH_VALUE_ASSESSMENT	p3_s24_classification.json → D_CURRENT_EDGE_NOT_DEMONSTRATED with corrected_pooled_oos_roc 0.5235 ; CI includes null; fold3 collapse; calib worse	8f1c80abe7	reachable	VERIFIED
P3-S25 external tick inventory (34.5 GB / 722,941,870 rows) ; E-UNRESOLVED	P3_S25_...	s25_execution_status.json → tick_csv rows 722,941,870, file_bytes 34,473,661,010; execution_stage = preflight+inventory+method ... ingest not completable	84465a2e24	reachable	VERIFIED
P3-S25.1 real checkpoint (run P3_S251_REAL_TICK_RUN_001)	CURRENT_PROJECT_STATE / DI decision	s251_real_checkpoint.json: run_id match, source_sha 5252..., chunk10/next11, next_offset 163,578,081, rows 3,661,058, M15 18,579, M30 9,966	committed	reachable	VERIFIED
P3-S25.1C SAFE_MAX_CHUNK_SIZE=24 MiB; invariance PASS; 10/10 mutations; boundary PASS	P3_S25_1C_...	chunk_size_invariance.json → chunk_size_invariant=true (12/24/48/64 byte-identical); chunk_mutation_results.json → target/detected 10/10; chunk_boundary_audit.json → boundary_audit_ok=true	0b38e96bf8	reachable	VERIFIED
P3-S25.1D-R verifier defect isolated; 8/8; checkpoint unchanged; CHUNK11 not processed; decision gate A	S25.1D-R handover	recovery/interruption_recovery_manifest.json → status.mutation_detection 8/8; real_checkpoint_unchanged true; chunk11_processed false; decision_gate A; interruption_failure_isolation.json → RESUME_BOUNDARY_MISMATCH, earliest div chunk1	7e7b672...	reachable	VERIFIED
P3-GOV-1 governance establishment, classification B	GOV-1 handover / self-audit	self-audit JSON classification B; GOV-1 handover present; final ref 983adbd (tiptip 49b174e)	all reachable	reachable	VERIFIED

Detected documentation-only contradictions (NOT claim conflict; Section 18)

1. README.md CURRENT section is pinned to P3-S25.1C COMPLETE / conclusion D, while CURRENT_PROJECT_STATE.md has advanced to P3-S25.1 Stage‑B CHUNK 10 COMPLETE → stale.
2. CURRENT_DECISION_GATE.md still authorizes "CHUNK 9 ONLY / offset 113,246,416", but the real checkpoint is chunk 10 committed / next 11 / offset 163,578,081 → stale.

These are documentation staleness, not conflicting research claims. They do NOT contradict the research/commit evidence; classify as documentation-only findings.

Notes on trust and blinding

None of the above "VERIFIED" marks rely on an AI-generated phase summary. Every row was confirmed by reading the committed machine-readable JSON and Git objects in the authoritative repository, using the independent run_repository_truth_audit.py harness.

End of P3-GOV-2 claim–evidence matrix.